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The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

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The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Annabel on Wed 7 Mar - 20:16

http://blacksmithbureau.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, 7 March 2012
The “vestiges of a simulation”

Watch that bazooka!

Goncalo Amaral who, according to reports from his various enemies was recently trying desperately to extricate himself from the deadly consequences of his libels on the McCanns, has been seen showing his head above the parapet once more. And, surprise, surprise, not beneath a tattered white flag but, on the contrary, with something looking suspiciously like a rocket propelled missile launcher on his shoulder.

In two interviews he has put his personal troubles aside and emphatically repeated, with additions, the charges of the utmost gravity against Kate & Gerry McCann he originally made in his book and television documentary on the case. Not quite the behaviour of a broken man suing for peace is it?

Also, and refreshingly, he cut through nearly five years junk reporting by the media and outright lying by the McCanns and went straight back to the essence of the case – the “impossibility” of the parents’ version of events on the night of May 3. “Undeniably,” he said in one of the interviews, “this window, [the children’s bedroom window] as I have said before, is a window ‘facing the world’.”

Not only was the window open to the world’s view on May 3, with no place to hide for potential evil doers, but in another sense it is also the window through which one can enter this mysterious case. And probably exit it too, for as GA added, “it is where the solution of the case lies.”

Five years well-funded adventurism by the couple, the crazed chiaroscuro of SAS men, paedophile rings, private jets, the Vatican, Metodo, the committee rooms of the House of Commons, moustachioed fugitives, moored yachts with waiting baby-buyers, lost wallets, dying suspects and the rest, all created by that artist of futile melodrama Gerry McCann, have failed to serve their purpose: do anything possible to muffle or drown the message of the window facing the world until it can be written off as “old news”...

GA’s case has always been, forget the mysteries, the possibilities so beautifully dreamed up by the McCanns, forget, at least by implication, the everlasting world-wide search for a living child—a brutal but necessary decision—and concentrate on a trail: “vestiges”, says Amaral, “of a simulation”. The investigation of the case then consists in following the evidence of this simulation through to the end. Was he right? Or should he have been busy “closing the borders” and pursuing the paedos as all those failed policemen-consultants told us—until News International stopped paying them.

For our purposes there is no need to list contradictions by the dozen until the head spins. Let us enter that open window, look briefly at some of those “vestiges” and the the outlines of an investigation immediately become clear—for those initial “vestiges” lead on to new problems and then to new “vestiges”, as the witnesses alter and develop their stories to plug the new holes. We can see it in action – and as the Bureau once asked, to a certain amount of bemusement, why bother with mysteries when we can concentrate on the “knowns”?

The definitive conferral evidence

At its heart lies an apparently trivial, but in the event absolutely intractable, problem. A period of just five to ten minutes means the difference between a possible abduction and an impossible one; some members of the Nine realised this by May 5 yet the attempts to master it, beginning with the construction of the third “timeline”, not only failed completely but ended up providing the trail.

At their first conferral over the day’s events, between 10.30 PM and 1 AM on the night of the 3/4 May, documentary evidence (the sticker-book entries) proves that the participants,Gerry McCann, Russell O’ Brien, David Payne and Mathew Oldfield, all agreed, in writing and in two separate documents, that there was a gap of between five and ten minutes between the return of Oldfield from his “shutter check” and the departure of Gerry McCann for his “check”. The walking time between restaurant and apartments is some 90 seconds to the front of the apartments, 65 seconds to 5A patio doors.

Timeline A relevant entries

8:45. pm

Matt returns 9.00-9.05 - listened at all 3

- all shutters down

Jerry 9.10-9.15 in the room + all well

? did he check

9.20/5 - Ella Jane checked 5D sees stranger & child

Timeline B relevant entries

8.45pm. all assembled at poolside for food

9.00pm. Matt Oldfield listens at all 3 windows 5A, B, D ALL shutters down

9:15pm Gerry McCann looks at room A ? Door open to bedroom

9:20pm Jane Tanner checks 5D - [sees stranger walking carrying a child]

Such agreement and documentation cannot be “reversed” since it is definitive – the participants were all present and jointly created the document and no relevant information sources that could change their conclusions were absent during the conferral.

The police statements

The conferee’s May 4 statements, made before they had any chance for further discussion, are instructive. Gerry McCann: “at 9.05 pm, the deponent entered the club, [Ocean Club apartment] using his key, the door being locked, and went to the children's bedroom and noted that the twins and Madeleine were in perfect condition.” [Assim, sendo palas 21.05 o declarente veio ao clube,entrou no quarto munidoda chave respectica, estando a porta transcada.] But there was no mention of Oldfield and his return to the restaurant.

And Payne made no mention of Gerry’s first check at all. “He no longer remembers in what order they went see their children.”

O’ Brien was no support. “He recalls that Matthew Oldfield left the restaurant at shortly after 21h00 to check the children. He is no longer sure who went out first, but five minutes later [our italics]Gerry McCann and his own partner, Jane, went out, almost at the same time, [ours again]to check the children.”

But Oldfield’s statement was the best: “That around 21h05, the interviewee went to the area of the apartments, notably to the area near the windows of all the children's bedrooms. That he did not hear any noise.”

So when Gerry McCann approached his front door with a key he would have found Mathew Oldfield bent over listening to the shutters...

Impossibilities...

Put shortly: the twin parameters of time/distance analysis results and the presence of the independent witness Wilkins determine fixed intervals that cannot be manipulated: the abduction, whatever form it takes, key or no key, abductor or abductors, has to occur after a certain time (the time Oldfield left the shutters) and be completed before a certain time (Tanner’s sighting). That being so a gap between Oldfield’s return and McCann’s departure from the restaurant of more than a few seconds, combined with McCann’s entry to the apartment via the locked front door, cannot be fitted in. It is impossible.

...and developments

It was not just the police who began noting this impossibility. In his second statement on May 10 Gerry McCann decided to tell the police about others’ actions as well as his own. “At 21H05, Mathew returned, the time at which the deponent left the table to go check on his children.” Mathew has been pulled away from the shutters he stated he was listening to at 9.05, been teleported through the darkening streets without being asked and the interval is down to zero.

So Gerry now knew to the second when he had left – 9.04. He wasn’t asked how he could be so exact before his arguido statement in September. That was when he told the police he had looked at his never-before-mentioned watch! Of course this completely contradicted the sticker book evidence which he had helped prepare and the chief feature of which was the inability to time that same departure exactly by any of those present. Including Dr McCann. Anyway it was incorporated (as 9.05) in David Payne’s helpful exercise in clarifying new timelines.

Finally McCann bites another bullet – there was no alternative because of the timescale and the possibility of further theoretical “collisions” like that between himself and Oldfield outside the apartment door – and completely changes his description of how he entered the apartment.

Now you cannot “unremember” an event. And it is well known that for information analysis purposes the first statement is always the most reliable in describing actions, rather than emotions or states of mind. Gerry McCann had told the police flatly that he went into the apartment by opening the locked front door with a key and had then signed and attested the truth of his statement having had it read back to him in English.

The only entrance requiring a key is the front door one off the car park, for the patio doors do not have a lock but are bolted from inside. But now he claimed, without comment or explanation and in breach of his previous attestation of the truth, “He walked the normal route up to the back door, which being open he only had to slide.” [Efectuou o trajecto normal ate a porta das traseiras, a qual estando alberta somente teve de a deslocar send que.] Then, in an easy procedure for Gerry McCann he signed for and attested to the truth of this statement, having had it read back to him in English.

Step back – that’s it!

The history of the rest of the case consists not of moustachioed Monster sightings nor, regrettably, the search for a living child, but of the doomed attempts to remove these wicked little problems and polish the “authorised version”, each of which, of course, leaves an audit trail. Much of the work was done in late 2007 when Gerry’s lawyers so helpfully pointed out the weaknesses which jumped out to the legal, or prosecutorial, mind and invited him to reconsider his evidence yet again – before testing out the new versions in the media via Clarence Mitchell to see if they floated.

That led to the farcical Medical McCann Memory Total Recall Syndrome when Gerry discovered that he was now “sure” there was a Hiding Monster listening to him pee from some secret refuge in 5A. Mitchell’s will-it-float feed of this epiphany sent poor old Carlos Anjos into something resembling an apoplexy but there was no need to worry: Gerry McCann and his bad-breathed paid mouthpiece had added another bit to the trail that began at 10.30 in Praia da Luz. It’s all still there, Clarence.

The work still proceeds: many of the proposed “solutions” to the ten minute problem can be heard softly, like an almost hidden background theme, in Madeleine. Clearly, as at least one other commentator has noted, she feels they may yet be needed

The group

The full extent of Tapas 7 collaboration with the pair is vexed. Note, for example, that even after the Rothley meeting David Payne’s recollections of 6.30 - 7PM on May 3 were still very much out of line with Kate and Gerry’s, which implies an absence of late group collusion. But when the memories of two of the core group who conferred over the sticker-book have evolved so usefully for the couple, then at the very least a passive willingness to fall in with Gerry McCann’s untrue assertions without necessarily being privy to exactly why they were needed is quite indisputable.

Oldfield, for example, who was ignorant of the exact time of Gerry’s departure at the sticker-book conference, has made neurological history alongside Gerry McCann by the constant improvement of his memory, so that in April 2008 he could say, “So, erm, back to the table, erm, we have, oh, back to the table, Gerry got up to go and, to go and check on his kids, I mean, and I’d come back and said, you know, I didn’t hear any noise when I listened outside your room, so I thought it was a little bit odd that, you know, not kind of a wounded pride that he sort of didn’t trust me, but..”

My, my. While O’ Brien has made similar history in the reverse direction – Selective Short Term Memory Loss Trauma Syndrome: “Erm,” he muttered in that same week, a week in which his recall was generally quite magnificent, “Erm as we discussed the other day, I’d forgotten these over the year.” “These” were no doubt eminently forgettable to Dr. Russell O’ Brien, who had far more important things on his mind than those little sticker book covers, overwhelmingly sad and desecrated remnants of a child’s life, torn out thoughtlessly in a gesture that remains the abiding symbol of the Madeleine McCann Affair.

There is only one reason why the Tapas 7 question is “vexed”: it has still, after five years, never been fully investigated. Investigated, that is, in the sense of the attempted reconstruction of claimed events and the clinical confrontation of the McCanns and the core group with their different and developing stories. A withdrawal and substitution of evidence, such as Gerry McCann’s two statements about his entry to the apartment, is itself evidence for the prosecution.

The vestiges of a simulation

That is why Amaral, whatever his merits and faults, was and remains rightly furious at the eventual failure of the investigation to look through “the window facing the world” at these vestiges of a simulation and, indeed, its lame surrender when confronted with the Seven’s outrageous refusal to return to Portugal. Instead the investigation dropped the shutters on the window, turned away and succumbed to the childish mass delusion of the “world-wide search for sweet missing Maddie”– until it ran into the sands, as illusions, helped on by the cowardly evasions of creatures like Menezes, always will.

Maddie's sticker book, front cover

Madeleine McCann’s forgotten memorial

Posted by john blacksmith at 19:30

Annabel
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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Guest on Wed 7 Mar - 20:26

One has to wonder if Amaral's new found confidence and ebullience were spurred, in part, by Pat Brown's recent visit - whether or not something new and startling was revealed, it must have been cathartic for the two of them to share information and thoughts.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Lillyofthevalley on Wed 7 Mar - 20:48

Looking at the video clips of Dr Amaral recently, he looks very well indeed, something has changed recently, he and others have come out all guns blazing........and not befor time imo.
Team McCann have run the show for too long, what with threatening and suing all and sundry, and no one retaliating.........well until now.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  bill516 on Wed 7 Mar - 21:59

The best time to attack is when your opponent has exhausted their ammo.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Jean-Luc on Wed 7 Mar - 22:17

This is a very positive story from Blacksmith, my personal feeling is that there is a tsunami coming and the McCanns do not have enough fingers to close the holes in the dyke.

I would very much like to know how they did manage to change their stories several times and not be punished for this, although it is good news that it could be ammunition in a trial. Also why they could escape returning for a reconstruction. On the BBC breakfast youtube clip at the one year anniversaire they were still arguidos but stated that they were in negotiation to go back for a reconstruction? Does any Portugese member know why this could be the case according to Portugese law?

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Loopdaloop on Wed 7 Mar - 23:11

Annabel wrote:http://blacksmithbureau.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, 7 March 2012
The “vestiges of a simulation”

Watch that bazooka!

Goncalo Amaral who, according to reports from his various enemies was recently trying desperately to extricate himself from the deadly consequences of his libels on the McCanns, has been seen showing his head above the parapet once more. And, surprise, surprise, not beneath a tattered white flag but, on the contrary, with something looking suspiciously like a rocket propelled missile launcher on his shoulder.

In two interviews he has put his personal troubles aside and emphatically repeated, with additions, the charges of the utmost gravity against Kate & Gerry McCann he originally made in his book and television documentary on the case. Not quite the behaviour of a broken man suing for peace is it?

Also, and refreshingly, he cut through nearly five years junk reporting by the media and outright lying by the McCanns and went straight back to the essence of the case – the “impossibility” of the parents’ version of events on the night of May 3. “Undeniably,” he said in one of the interviews, “this window, [the children’s bedroom window] as I have said before, is a window ‘facing the world’.”

Not only was the window open to the world’s view on May 3, with no place to hide for potential evil doers, but in another sense it is also the window through which one can enter this mysterious case. And probably exit it too, for as GA added, “it is where the solution of the case lies.”

Five years well-funded adventurism by the couple, the crazed chiaroscuro of SAS men, paedophile rings, private jets, the Vatican, Metodo, the committee rooms of the House of Commons, moustachioed fugitives, moored yachts with waiting baby-buyers, lost wallets, dying suspects and the rest, all created by that artist of futile melodrama Gerry McCann, have failed to serve their purpose: do anything possible to muffle or drown the message of the window facing the world until it can be written off as “old news”...

GA’s case has always been, forget the mysteries, the possibilities so beautifully dreamed up by the McCanns, forget, at least by implication, the everlasting world-wide search for a living child—a brutal but necessary decision—and concentrate on a trail: “vestiges”, says Amaral, “of a simulation”. The investigation of the case then consists in following the evidence of this simulation through to the end. Was he right? Or should he have been busy “closing the borders” and pursuing the paedos as all those failed policemen-consultants told us—until News International stopped paying them.

For our purposes there is no need to list contradictions by the dozen until the head spins. Let us enter that open window, look briefly at some of those “vestiges” and the the outlines of an investigation immediately become clear—for those initial “vestiges” lead on to new problems and then to new “vestiges”, as the witnesses alter and develop their stories to plug the new holes. We can see it in action – and as the Bureau once asked, to a certain amount of bemusement, why bother with mysteries when we can concentrate on the “knowns”?

The definitive conferral evidence

At its heart lies an apparently trivial, but in the event absolutely intractable, problem. A period of just five to ten minutes means the difference between a possible abduction and an impossible one; some members of the Nine realised this by May 5 yet the attempts to master it, beginning with the construction of the third “timeline”, not only failed completely but ended up providing the trail.

At their first conferral over the day’s events, between 10.30 PM and 1 AM on the night of the 3/4 May, documentary evidence (the sticker-book entries) proves that the participants,Gerry McCann, Russell O’ Brien, David Payne and Mathew Oldfield, all agreed, in writing and in two separate documents, that there was a gap of between five and ten minutes between the return of Oldfield from his “shutter check” and the departure of Gerry McCann for his “check”. The walking time between restaurant and apartments is some 90 seconds to the front of the apartments, 65 seconds to 5A patio doors.

Timeline A relevant entries

8:45. pm

Matt returns 9.00-9.05 - listened at all 3

- all shutters down

Jerry 9.10-9.15 in the room + all well

? did he check

9.20/5 - Ella Jane checked 5D sees stranger & child

Timeline B relevant entries

8.45pm. all assembled at poolside for food

9.00pm. Matt Oldfield listens at all 3 windows 5A, B, D ALL shutters down

9:15pm Gerry McCann looks at room A ? Door open to bedroom

9:20pm Jane Tanner checks 5D - [sees stranger walking carrying a child]

Such agreement and documentation cannot be “reversed” since it is definitive – the participants were all present and jointly created the document and no relevant information sources that could change their conclusions were absent during the conferral.

The police statements

The conferee’s May 4 statements, made before they had any chance for further discussion, are instructive. Gerry McCann: “at 9.05 pm, the deponent entered the club, [Ocean Club apartment] using his key, the door being locked, and went to the children's bedroom and noted that the twins and Madeleine were in perfect condition.” [Assim, sendo palas 21.05 o declarente veio ao clube,entrou no quarto munidoda chave respectica, estando a porta transcada.] But there was no mention of Oldfield and his return to the restaurant.

And Payne made no mention of Gerry’s first check at all. “He no longer remembers in what order they went see their children.”

O’ Brien was no support. “He recalls that Matthew Oldfield left the restaurant at shortly after 21h00 to check the children. He is no longer sure who went out first, but five minutes later [our italics]Gerry McCann and his own partner, Jane, went out, almost at the same time, [ours again]to check the children.”

But Oldfield’s statement was the best: “That around 21h05, the interviewee went to the area of the apartments, notably to the area near the windows of all the children's bedrooms. That he did not hear any noise.”

So when Gerry McCann approached his front door with a key he would have found Mathew Oldfield bent over listening to the shutters...

Impossibilities...

Put shortly: the twin parameters of time/distance analysis results and the presence of the independent witness Wilkins determine fixed intervals that cannot be manipulated: the abduction, whatever form it takes, key or no key, abductor or abductors, has to occur after a certain time (the time Oldfield left the shutters) and be completed before a certain time (Tanner’s sighting). That being so a gap between Oldfield’s return and McCann’s departure from the restaurant of more than a few seconds, combined with McCann’s entry to the apartment via the locked front door, cannot be fitted in. It is impossible.

...and developments

It was not just the police who began noting this impossibility. In his second statement on May 10 Gerry McCann decided to tell the police about others’ actions as well as his own. “At 21H05, Mathew returned, the time at which the deponent left the table to go check on his children.” Mathew has been pulled away from the shutters he stated he was listening to at 9.05, been teleported through the darkening streets without being asked and the interval is down to zero.

So Gerry now knew to the second when he had left – 9.04. He wasn’t asked how he could be so exact before his arguido statement in September. That was when he told the police he had looked at his never-before-mentioned watch! Of course this completely contradicted the sticker book evidence which he had helped prepare and the chief feature of which was the inability to time that same departure exactly by any of those present. Including Dr McCann. Anyway it was incorporated (as 9.05) in David Payne’s helpful exercise in clarifying new timelines.

Finally McCann bites another bullet – there was no alternative because of the timescale and the possibility of further theoretical “collisions” like that between himself and Oldfield outside the apartment door – and completely changes his description of how he entered the apartment.

Now you cannot “unremember” an event. And it is well known that for information analysis purposes the first statement is always the most reliable in describing actions, rather than emotions or states of mind. Gerry McCann had told the police flatly that he went into the apartment by opening the locked front door with a key and had then signed and attested the truth of his statement having had it read back to him in English.

The only entrance requiring a key is the front door one off the car park, for the patio doors do not have a lock but are bolted from inside. But now he claimed, without comment or explanation and in breach of his previous attestation of the truth, “He walked the normal route up to the back door, which being open he only had to slide.” [Efectuou o trajecto normal ate a porta das traseiras, a qual estando alberta somente teve de a deslocar send que.] Then, in an easy procedure for Gerry McCann he signed for and attested to the truth of this statement, having had it read back to him in English.

Step back – that’s it!

The history of the rest of the case consists not of moustachioed Monster sightings nor, regrettably, the search for a living child, but of the doomed attempts to remove these wicked little problems and polish the “authorised version”, each of which, of course, leaves an audit trail. Much of the work was done in late 2007 when Gerry’s lawyers so helpfully pointed out the weaknesses which jumped out to the legal, or prosecutorial, mind and invited him to reconsider his evidence yet again – before testing out the new versions in the media via Clarence Mitchell to see if they floated.

That led to the farcical Medical McCann Memory Total Recall Syndrome when Gerry discovered that he was now “sure” there was a Hiding Monster listening to him pee from some secret refuge in 5A. Mitchell’s will-it-float feed of this epiphany sent poor old Carlos Anjos into something resembling an apoplexy but there was no need to worry: Gerry McCann and his bad-breathed paid mouthpiece had added another bit to the trail that began at 10.30 in Praia da Luz. It’s all still there, Clarence.

The work still proceeds: many of the proposed “solutions” to the ten minute problem can be heard softly, like an almost hidden background theme, in Madeleine. Clearly, as at least one other commentator has noted, she feels they may yet be needed

The group

The full extent of Tapas 7 collaboration with the pair is vexed. Note, for example, that even after the Rothley meeting David Payne’s recollections of 6.30 - 7PM on May 3 were still very much out of line with Kate and Gerry’s, which implies an absence of late group collusion. But when the memories of two of the core group who conferred over the sticker-book have evolved so usefully for the couple, then at the very least a passive willingness to fall in with Gerry McCann’s untrue assertions without necessarily being privy to exactly why they were needed is quite indisputable.

Oldfield, for example, who was ignorant of the exact time of Gerry’s departure at the sticker-book conference, has made neurological history alongside Gerry McCann by the constant improvement of his memory, so that in April 2008 he could say, “So, erm, back to the table, erm, we have, oh, back to the table, Gerry got up to go and, to go and check on his kids, I mean, and I’d come back and said, you know, I didn’t hear any noise when I listened outside your room, so I thought it was a little bit odd that, you know, not kind of a wounded pride that he sort of didn’t trust me, but..”

My, my. While O’ Brien has made similar history in the reverse direction – Selective Short Term Memory Loss Trauma Syndrome: “Erm,” he muttered in that same week, a week in which his recall was generally quite magnificent, “Erm as we discussed the other day, I’d forgotten these over the year.” “These” were no doubt eminently forgettable to Dr. Russell O’ Brien, who had far more important things on his mind than those little sticker book covers, overwhelmingly sad and desecrated remnants of a child’s life, torn out thoughtlessly in a gesture that remains the abiding symbol of the Madeleine McCann Affair.

There is only one reason why the Tapas 7 question is “vexed”: it has still, after five years, never been fully investigated. Investigated, that is, in the sense of the attempted reconstruction of claimed events and the clinical confrontation of the McCanns and the core group with their different and developing stories. A withdrawal and substitution of evidence, such as Gerry McCann’s two statements about his entry to the apartment, is itself evidence for the prosecution.

The vestiges of a simulation

That is why Amaral, whatever his merits and faults, was and remains rightly furious at the eventual failure of the investigation to look through “the window facing the world” at these vestiges of a simulation and, indeed, its lame surrender when confronted with the Seven’s outrageous refusal to return to Portugal. Instead the investigation dropped the shutters on the window, turned away and succumbed to the childish mass delusion of the “world-wide search for sweet missing Maddie”– until it ran into the sands, as illusions, helped on by the cowardly evasions of creatures like Menezes, always will.

Maddie's sticker book, front cover

Madeleine McCann’s forgotten memorial

Posted by john blacksmith at 19:30


I am glad Pat Brown's visit gave him some strength back in his convictions.
I am also sure that his 'divorce' and 'personal difficulties' will resolve themselves once the court case is over,
as if his ex wife has all his money, the poor man won't be able to pay the Mccann's anything if he loses!

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  LJC on Wed 7 Mar - 23:32

What little time the abductor had to carry out his deed, on top of that he was working in the dark. So dark that Kate said she had to look twice before she realised Madeleine was not there. And, I think I am right in saying, they were loathe to wake the children up on their checks, so they kept the patio doors unlocked to minimise disruption when entering, or they listened at the shutters lest they disturb the sleeping youngsters. Why then did Gerry, on his check, decide to visit the toilet? I know I speak from experience when I say that the men in my house frequently disturb me during the night with their visits to the loo, because a man standing over a toilet peeing makes quite a sound, water splashing into water. And did Gerry put the light on in the bathroom? If he did not want to wake his slumbering children, he could have visited the toilet in the restaurant. Or perhaps he was confident they would not wake?

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  LJC on Wed 7 Mar - 23:43

To my mind, it was always too early in the evening for an abduction to occur. If it were true that the abductor was watching the apartment and knew the group of friends was dining in the tapas, he would know from previous nights that they did not return to their respective apartments to retire finally for the night until much later. And the betting is that the longer the night went on, the longer the time between their checks, as they consumed more drink and started to relax even more. Half an hour would be more likely to turn into 45 minutes as the clock ticked by towards 11pm and onwards. And the streets would be even quieter, more curtains would be drawn, more blinds would be down as people retired to bed, so less chance of being disturbed. 9pm for an abduction, when Jez is walking with his pushchair and JT is flip-flopping around noisily on the pavement, no that does not sound plausible to me at all.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Panda on Thu 8 Mar - 2:15



I never understood why Gerry included his visit to the Loo as part of his Statement. What was the motive, a 2 minute change to the timeline? What about the night he was supposed to be in the Apartment because he was watching Football on the Telly? Why these unimportant trivial comments, yet
none of them can answer how an abductor climbed in and out of a window with a sleeping child when Patio door was unlocked and he could also have gone out through the front door. See, if I was the PJ I would have asked all these questions of the McCanns , instead of the inane questions they did ask.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  jinvta on Thu 8 Mar - 7:31

I agree with LJC, it was too early for the abduction to occur. I think the time was chosen because Gerry was talking to Jez during this time, giving Gerry an alibi at "the moment it happened."

The only check after 9:30 pm was Kate's lone check at 10 pm a half an hour later. Matt had apparently already called it quits for the night, having done a 9:00 pm and 9:30 pm check on everyone else's kids. Kate didn't even both to do the same for Matt when she got up, why not? Also, why didn't Rachel offer to go with Kate, as it was supposedly scary and dark?

Shutter down on Matt's 9:00 check. Shutter clearly down during Gerry's 9:05 check, as there is no way that he could not have noticed and open window and shutter when he waked in the room to look down at Madeleine and think how beautiful she was and how lucky he was. So, then when exactly did the "abductor" open the window and shutter? It had to have been either whild Gerry was still in the apartment or while Gerry was standing out on the street talking to Jez. Not likely.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  tigger on Thu 8 Mar - 7:55

According to Rachel O, shutters down on the patio doors as well... I think MO himself said ALL shutters were down on his check?
Jez Wilkins is on record as saying he's very annoyed at always being quoted the 9.15 time - because he's never said that.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Christine on Thu 8 Mar - 8:29

I always had the impression that Matt Oldfield was supposed to find Maddie gone, but it went wrong since he didn't even go into the bedroom. This would have been perfect, since Gerry had now (maybe unexpected) the bonus of being seen talking to Jezz. Now, Jane Tanner had to step in, and Kate would have to do the check. I think the time in between Jezz and the discovery of Maddie gone, had to be as short as possible, and the first opportunity was Kate at a bit before 10pm.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Lillyofthevalley on Thu 8 Mar - 9:05

Panda wrote:

I never understood why Gerry included his visit to the Loo as part of his Statement. What was the motive, a 2 minute change to the timeline? What about the night he was supposed to be in the Apartment because he was watching Football on the Telly? Why these unimportant trivial comments, yet
none of them can answer how an abductor climbed in and out of a window with a sleeping child when Patio door was unlocked and he could also have gone out through the front door. See, if I was the PJ I would have asked all these questions of the McCanns , instead of the inane questions they did ask.

Morning Panda, also if I were in the PJ the first thing I would have had to do is "re-question" Tanner regarding her discription of the abductor, in the dark under such BAD street lighting, how she could be so definate with skin colour, shoes, hair and been able to see the length of the legs of the PJ's..........and why she kept changing the face of the abductor.


Why these unimportant trivial comments, yet
Panda I think its called over egging the pud, I watched a programe just recently on the crime discovery channel, they were talking about how a criminal will always bring unimportant stuff into the story, one of the triats of a GUILTY CULPRITl!!!
The truth is the truth you dont need to elaborate on it do you, and you def dont forget.


Last edited by Lillyofthevalley on Thu 8 Mar - 9:25; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : add)

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  duncanmac on Thu 8 Mar - 9:15

LJC wrote: I know I speak from experience when I say that the men in my house frequently disturb me during the night with their visits to the loo, because a man standing over a toilet peeing makes quite a sound,

And sometimes we miss and that makes an even louder noise

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Panda on Thu 8 Mar - 9:29

Lillyofthevalley wrote:
Panda wrote:

I never understood why Gerry included his visit to the Loo as part of his Statement. What was the motive, a 2 minute change to the timeline? What about the night he was supposed to be in the Apartment because he was watching Football on the Telly? Why these unimportant trivial comments, yet
none of them can answer how an abductor climbed in and out of a window with a sleeping child when Patio door was unlocked and he could also have gone out through the front door. See, if I was the PJ I would have asked all these questions of the McCanns , instead of the inane questions they did ask.

Morning Panda, also if I were in the PJ the first thing I would have had to do is "re-question" Tanner regarding her discription of the abductor, in the dark under such BAD street lighting, how she could be so definate with skin colour, shoes, hair and been able to see the length of the legs of the PJ's..........and why she kept changing the face of the abductor.

Morning Lillyofthevalley,

Silvia Batista said there was no way Tanner could have had a full view of the "Abductor" from where she was, and Oldfield admits he was listening at
the door, he didn't go into the Apartment on his 9.30 pm check. Another point I would make. It was reported that Kate was supposed to do the check
at 9.30pm but Oldfield offered to do it and Gerry teased Kate for getting out of it. You are the Mother of a child who asks why you didn't come when she was crying, wouldn't you make a special effort as Parents to check every 15 minutes instead of 30 minutes ?????? Did Kate ask Oldfield if he had
actually looked in the Bedroom? The McCanns with three young children were the first to go to the Restaurant that night, arriving promptly at 8.30pm.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Panda on Thu 8 Mar - 9:32

duncanmac wrote:
LJC wrote: I know I speak from experience when I say that the men in my house frequently disturb me during the night with their visits to the loo, because a man standing over a toilet peeing makes quite a sound,

And sometimes we miss and that makes an even louder noise

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  chrissie on Thu 8 Mar - 10:29

Panda wrote:
Lillyofthevalley wrote:
Panda wrote:

I never understood why Gerry included his visit to the Loo as part of his Statement. What was the motive, a 2 minute change to the timeline? What about the night he was supposed to be in the Apartment because he was watching Football on the Telly? Why these unimportant trivial comments, yet
none of them can answer how an abductor climbed in and out of a window with a sleeping child when Patio door was unlocked and he could also have gone out through the front door. See, if I was the PJ I would have asked all these questions of the McCanns , instead of the inane questions they did ask.

Morning Panda, also if I were in the PJ the first thing I would have had to do is "re-question" Tanner regarding her discription of the abductor, in the dark under such BAD street lighting, how she could be so definate with skin colour, shoes, hair and been able to see the length of the legs of the PJ's..........and why she kept changing the face of the abductor.

Morning Lillyofthevalley,

Silvia Batista said there was no way Tanner could have had a full view of the "Abductor" from where she was, and Oldfield admits he was listening at
the door, he didn't go into the Apartment on his 9.30 pm check. Another point I would make. It was reported that Kate was supposed to do the check
at 9.30pm but Oldfield offered to do it and Gerry teased Kate for getting out of it. You are the Mother of a child who asks why you didn't come when she was crying, wouldn't you make a special effort as Parents to check every 15 minutes instead of 30 minutes ?????? Did Kate ask Oldfield if he had
actually looked in the Bedroom? The McCanns with three young children were the first to go to the Restaurant that night, arriving promptly at 8.30pm.

Morning Panda, if you knew your child had been crying, the special effort you would make is not to leave them alone at all.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Panda on Thu 8 Mar - 10:53

chrissie wrote:
Panda wrote:
Lillyofthevalley wrote:
Panda wrote:

I never understood why Gerry included his visit to the Loo as part of his Statement. What was the motive, a 2 minute change to the timeline? What about the night he was supposed to be in the Apartment because he was watching Football on the Telly? Why these unimportant trivial comments, yet
none of them can answer how an abductor climbed in and out of a window with a sleeping child when Patio door was unlocked and he could also have gone out through the front door. See, if I was the PJ I would have asked all these questions of the McCanns , instead of the inane questions they did ask.

Morning Panda, also if I were in the PJ the first thing I would have had to do is "re-question" Tanner regarding her discription of the abductor, in the dark under such BAD street lighting, how she could be so definate with skin colour, shoes, hair and been able to see the length of the legs of the PJ's..........and why she kept changing the face of the abductor.

Morning Lillyofthevalley,

Silvia Batista said there was no way Tanner could have had a full view of the "Abductor" from where she was, and Oldfield admits he was listening at
the door, he didn't go into the Apartment on his 9.30 pm check. Another point I would make. It was reported that Kate was supposed to do the check
at 9.30pm but Oldfield offered to do it and Gerry teased Kate for getting out of it. You are the Mother of a child who asks why you didn't come when she was crying, wouldn't you make a special effort as Parents to check every 15 minutes instead of 30 minutes ?????? Did Kate ask Oldfield if he had
actually looked in the Bedroom? The McCanns with three young children were the first to go to the Restaurant that night, arriving promptly at 8.30pm.

Morning Panda, if you knew your child had been crying, the special effort you would make is not to leave them alone at all.

Morning chrissie..... EXACTLY...but this is the couple who thought 'it was like dining in your back gaarden" and "it was our holiday too", so you have to make allowances. Not to mention the fact that Madeleine and the twins were born from IVF Treatment which should have made those children even more precious.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  jeanmonroe on Thu 8 Mar - 11:38

As a certain 'happygirl24' (where did she go?) did a remarkable analysis of the hand written timelines(cribsheets,lol) concluding that GM signed the second one personally, with a different coloured pen, at least THREE hours before JT told him she saw a 'stranger' ( yet the stranger was INCLUDED on BOTH timelines, one of which was SIGNED by McCann himself) and he was shocked to the core, to learn this, she, happygirl24 asked anyone to explain WHY did Jes Wilkins, one of the most crucial, pivotal, characters in the street at the exact time MM was supposedly 'abducted' never ever get a mention on the hand written time lines.
You would think that, according to the T9, Jes Wilkins didn't exist at all!
The very first time we hear OFFICIALLY about JW is when GM gives his first statement the NEXT day!
Yet at the Tapas table after JT and GM got back they were all talking about meeting Wilkins in the street a few minutes earlier. HOURS BEFORE THE TIMELINES WERE WRITTEN (supposedly)
I, would now like to ask, WHY is Jes Wilkins 'missing' from the first TWO timelines?
And also, now that the McCanns have called him a blatant LIAR, (GM CROSSED the road, so Wilkins couldn't possibly be standing outside gate to 5A) on film and in print, WHY hasn't Wilkins SUED them?
Any EXPLANATION will do! lol.
Was JW the 'carrier' (empty buggy) to hide MM body and put in a place where GM/DP would go out at 4am to retrieve and move to another place? (entirely feasible imo, motive.... large amount of money to be made from a mystery)
The police, imo, didn't even KNOW about JW, and the T9 certainly didn't tell them, until the NEXT day.


Last edited by jeanmonroe on Thu 8 Mar - 13:07; edited 4 times in total

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  tanszi on Thu 8 Mar - 11:42

perhaps he thinks the McCs were in shock and so couldnt remember, perhaps he just cant be bothered. He knows where he was and gave and signed his statement on oath as did the McCs. He now knows it shows a glaring error in the McCs accounts, why would he need to sue. jimo.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  jeanmonroe on Thu 8 Mar - 11:54

You cannot be serious!!lol
So in SHOCK that less than TWO hours later they 'FORGET' meeting and talking to JW a 6ft 4in GIANT in the very street at the exact time but THEY do remember JT seeing a stranger carrying a child from 50 metres (KM and GM statements) wearing his semi brouge shoes!
That's no explanation that's called 'aving a laff'! lol

"He now knows it shows a glaring error in the McCs accounts, why would he need to sue?"

because he has a reputation to keep?
I'm not calling him a liar, THEY are!
Crack the JT/JW/GM 'meeting' and you're well on your way to getting to the truth.
Tanner was, imo, a 'lookout' in the street as JW moved something.
I can be wrong a thousand times but they cannot be wrong ONCE!

ETA.
Witness Statement
Date: 2007/05/16 Hours: 15h25m

Rui Segio Lopes Silva

Occupation: GNR Officer

He only had direct contact with the couple and their friends at about 04.00 when Gerry McCann approached the GNR group of which he was a member to ask whether there was a church close by. He replied to him in English, giving the directions to a nearby church.

The PJ gave up the search for the night at around 3.30am.
Gerry went back out again at about 4am with his friend David Payne.

Lots of nooks and crannys in a church to hide things!

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Panda on Thu 8 Mar - 12:29


Jez Wilkins Wife was enamoured of the McCanns but apparenetly Jez was not.!! He apparently complained that on his return to the U.K. Gerry phoned
him several times at his home.I think soneone ought to show both Gerry and Jez's version of the chat for comparison.....I would but I wouldn't know where to find them.

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  tanszi on Thu 8 Mar - 12:31

yes i am serious you asked why wouldnt he sue, i was just giving some ideas why he wouldnt. Sometimes people dont want to sue, they know their account is correct and thats that. Put it the other way round, why arent the McCs suing him, because in effect if what they say is true JW is calling them a liar. jimo

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  Annabel on Thu 8 Mar - 12:39

jeanmonroe wrote:As a certain 'happygirl24' (where did she go?) did a remarkable analysis of the hand written timelines(cribsheets,lol) concluding that GM signed the second one personally, with a different coloured pen, at least THREE hours before JT told him she saw a 'stranger' and he was shocked to the core, to learn this, she, happygirl24 asked anyone to explain WHY did Jes Wilkins, one of the most crucial, pivotal, characters in the street at the exact time MM was supposedly 'abducted' never ever get a mention on the hand written time lines.
You would think that, according to the T9, Jes Wilkins didn't exist at all!
The very first time we hear OFFICIALLY about JW is when GM gives his first statement the NEXT day!
Yet at the Tapas table after JT and GM got back they were all talking about meeting Wilkins in the street a few minutes earlier. HOURS BEFORE THE TIMELINES WERE WRITTEN (supposedly)
I, would now like to ask, WHY is Jes Wilkins 'missing' from the first TWO timelines?
And also, now that the McCanns have called him a blatant LIAR, (GM CROSSED the road, so Wilkins couldn't possibly be standing outside gate to 5A) on film and in print, WHY hasn't Wilkins SUED them?
Any EXPLANATION will do! lol.
Was JW the 'carrier' (empty buggy) to hide MM body and put in a place where GM/DP would go out at 4am to retrieve and move to another place? (entirely feasible imo, motive.... large amount of money to be made from a mystery)
The police, imo, didn't even KNOW about JW, and the T9 certainly didn't tell them, until the NEXT day.


You can read the post of happygirl here:

http://gerrymccan-abuseofpower-humanrights.blogspot.com/2009/09/gerry-mccann-theres-no-evidence-that.html

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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

Post  jeanmonroe on Thu 8 Mar - 12:53

Perhaps they will sue him, as they cannot find anyone else to SUE! lol.
He's the last man standing!
But just as an aside.
WHY didn't JW go straight up to the PJ, the next day, and make it known at the earliest possible time and say 'i was standing right there outside the gate talking to the childs dad at the time MM went missing, does that help?'
Did he do that?
Er NO, he walked straight PASSED the PJ and he went to the playgroup with (escorted by?) one of the McS doctors friend.
Okay lets say he 'forgot'
So on his return from the playgroup did he THEN tell the PJ as he passed them a SECOND time he was standing right THERE at the crucial time?
Er NO seems he 'forgot' AGAIN!
What in fact did he do?
HE WENT TO BREAKFAST!!
So JW has one last chance to tell the PJ after breakfast, god forbid a missing child of his friend should stop him eating, does he take THIS third opportunity to tell the PJ about where he was?
Er , you guessed it, NOOOOOOOOO!
He and his wife LIFT up the police taping and return to their apartment!
ONLY after McCann has said his name in his statement do the police go to JW apartment in the afternoon.
WHY didn't JW identify himself to the police as soon as he got up the morning 'after'?
We know he saw the 'searching' because he told us in his much later statements
It seems he didn't even ask the police he walked by three times 'have you found her,? how's the search going?'
NOT A PEEP OUT OF WILKINS, even though his tennis buddys child has gone 'missing'
WHY,WHY,WHY DID WILKINS DODGE/EVADE the PJ?


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Re: The “vestiges of a simulation”/Blacksmith

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