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15 out of 19 markers

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15 out of 19 markers

Post  cass on Sun 11 Mar - 14:54

just asked this on fb , in portugal 15 out of 19 markers wasnt enough for a conviction
now that sy are involved joint effort where does this lead them ? in the uk 15 is enough , they have to look at this . it was enough in 2007 and should still be enough . your thoughts please

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  Oldartform on Sun 11 Mar - 21:49

Going on the remit from SY, it seems as if the investigative review will take place as if it happened in UK :-

""Op Grange Remit

The support and expertise proffered by the Commissioner will be provided by the Homicide & Serious Crime Command - SCD1.

The activity, in the first instance, will be that of an ‘investigative review’. This will entail a review of the whole of the investigation(s) which have been conducted in to the circumstances of Madeleine McCann’s disappearance.

The focus of the review will be of the material held by three main stakeholders (and in the following order of primacy);

The Portuguese Law Enforcement agencies.
UK Law Enforcement agencies,
Other private investigative agencies/staff and organisations.

The investigative review is intended to collate, record and analyse what has gone before.

It is to examine the case and seek to determine, (as if the abduction occurred in the UK) what additional, new investigative approaches we would take and which can assist the Portuguese authorities in progressing the matter. Whilst ordinarily a review has no investigative remit whatsoever- the scale and extent of this enquiry cannot permit for such an approach. It will take too long to progress to any “action stage” if activity is given wholly and solely to a review process.

The ‘investigative review’ will be conducted with transparency, openness and thoroughness.

The work will be overseen through the Gold Group management structure, which will also manage the central relationships with other key stakeholders and provide continuing oversight and direction to the investigative remit. "

So, whether that means they can use just 15 markers to bring a case, I don`t know. One can only hope !



Last edited by Oldartform on Sun 11 Mar - 21:51; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : Forgot to put quote marks in.)

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  jinvta on Sun 11 Mar - 22:07

And what about the text messages and phone messages that were deemed an invasion of privacy, and therefore inadmissable, by the Portuguese judge? Perhaps those can also be used as evidence in the UK as well? I certainly hope so! Maybe there is just enough circumstantial evidence in order to ensure a conviction in the UK.

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  Oldartform on Sun 11 Mar - 22:30

I would hope that if SY have strong enough suspicions they can pry where they want, but I expect they need a warrant and whether our judges would grant it, not sure. Plus there would be pressure from McCanns lawyers for it not to be granted. The Portuguese judge was probably under pressure `not to upset the bereaved British couple` as was nearly everyone. But if the phone records, medical records, bank and credit card records are accessed by SY, I`m not knowledgeable enough to know if and how they could be used. I`d be interested if anyone else knows about these things.


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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  Loopdaloop on Sun 11 Mar - 22:31

cass wrote:just asked this on fb , in portugal 15 out of 19 markers wasnt enough for a conviction
now that sy are involved joint effort where does this lead them ? in the uk 15 is enough , they have to look at this . it was enough in 2007 and should still be enough . your thoughts please

This is one of my all time favourite threads on this site which you may enjoy!

http://missingmadeleine.forumotion.net/t12417-more-about-dna-from-an-expert

"More about dna from an expert" it explains all of this very clearly!

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  MaryB on Sun 11 Mar - 22:34

I hope Scotland Yard gets all theinformation which didn't seem to be forthcoming last time. I can see the significance of phone records but can't see why bank statements should be that important.

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  Guest on Sun 11 Mar - 22:43

MaryB wrote:I hope Scotland Yard gets all theinformation which didn't seem to be forthcoming last time. I can see the significance of phone records but can't see why bank statements should be that important.


This may relate to the apparent immunity that Gerald and his cohorts were blessed with during the time of the last Labour Government.

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  marxman on Mon 12 Mar - 8:34

please excuse my lazy ignorance but could
some kind poster explain what a 'marker' is?

Am I right in thinking that a marker is a 'known'
DNA sample and the others are markers which
are matched to the known sample?

Example being 19 known samples of DNA and
15 suspect samples which match known sample?

apologies, but everyday a school day for me.

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  Wintabells on Mon 12 Mar - 9:08

I thought that the sample from the McC's car contained 37 markers, not 19 and that the problem was, they were from 3 - 5 different people.

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  Bebootje on Mon 12 Mar - 9:16

A genetic marker is a gene or DNA sequence with a known location on a chromosome that can be used to identify individuals or species. It can be described as a variation (which may arise due to mutation or alteration in the genomic loci) that can be observed. A genetic marker may be a short DNA sequence, such as a sequence surrounding a single base-pair change (single nucleotide polymorphism, SNP), or a long one, like minisatellites.
Some commonly used types of genetic markers are

RFLP (or Restriction fragment length polymorphism)
SSLP (or Simple sequence length polymorphism)
AFLP (or Amplified fragment length polymorphism)
RAPD (or Random amplification of polymorphic DNA)
VNTR (or Variable number tandem repeat)
Microsatellite polymorphism, SSR (or Simple sequence repeat)
SNP (or Single nucleotide polymorphism)
STR (or Short tandem repeat)
SFP (or Single feature polymorphism)
DArT (or Diversity Arrays Technology)
RAD markers (or Restriction site associated DNA markers)

DNA profiling (also called DNA testing, DNA typing, or genetic fingerprinting) is a technique employed by forensic scientists to assist in the identification of individuals by their respective DNA profiles. DNA profiles are encrypted sets of numbers that reflect a person's DNA makeup, which can also be used as the person's identifier. DNA profiling should not be confused with full genome sequencing.[1] It is used in, for example, parental testing and criminal investigation.

Although 99.9% of human DNA sequences are the same in every person, enough of the DNA is different to distinguish one individual from another, unless they are monozygotic twins.[2] DNA profiling uses repetitive ("repeat") sequences that are highly variable,[2] called variable number tandem repeats (VNTRs), particularly short tandem repeats (STRs). VNTR loci are very similar between closely related humans, but so variable that unrelated individuals are extremely unlikely to have the same VNTRs.

Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_identification

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  Bebootje on Mon 12 Mar - 9:20

From the FSS John Lowe report:
"A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion."

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  AnnaEsse on Mon 12 Mar - 9:44

I am going to copy part of an article, which appeared in a blog, which has disappeared now because of the owner's having 'family issues.' Enfants Kidnappés blog featured details and news on many missing children and it is a loss to the online community. I have quite a few articles from there on my blog and I am grateful for the work put in by the owner in keeping it going for so long.

The article I am quoting from was published in August 2008 and features an interview with Madame S. Adamis, Legal Expert at the Centre for Human Genetics at the Catholic University of Louvain. (GNEX - UCL)

The DNA results.

The media war has begun. The British newspapers do not speak the same language as the Portuguese newspapers. Thus, Clarence Mitchell, the parents' spokesperson, states in the British press:

"The DNA results were never 100% compatible with Madeleine's DNA. A note of caution had been expressed at the outset. The police were wrong to pursue this line of investigation. The Portuguese judicial system has admitted having no evidence! I can confirm that the PJ stated to Gerry that Madeleine's DNA had been found in the two apartments and in the vehicle, while it is now clear that that is not what the first report from FSS said. You must ask yourself what the police were trying to do in inventing evidence which they don't have and which they cannot have. In these circumstances, it could be asked what is their motivation."

We are going to flatten Mr Mitchell's statements somewhat. From the point of view of a police officer, it happens that the police tell suspects that they hold evidence, which they don't in reality have, in order to crack a suspect; this should not be done any old way. Indeed, it is difficult to tell a suspect, for example, that his fingerprints were found at a crime scene while the suspect knows that he appropriately wore goves throughout his offence and that as a result the police are talking rubbish! You must be quite serious. Putting forward evidence which you don't have must remain plausible, knowing that if the suspect is indeed the guilty party, the police will lose face if they invent evidence that the suspect knows to be false!!

On the other hand, Clarence Mitchell's interpretation of the DNA results invite circumspection. To help us with our thinking, our association called upon an expert on the subject. She is Madame S. Adamis, Legal Expert at the Centre for Human Genetics at the Catholic University of Louvain. (GNEX - UCL)

Association Enfants Kidnappés: Do you know about the LCN technique and is it commonly used?

S.Adamis: LCN (Low Copy Number) is a technique developed by the laboratories of the English Forensic Science Services to analyse samples containing a very small number of molecules of DNA. The basic principle is to increase the number of PCR cycles to increase sensitivity. [Gill, 2000; Whitaker, 2001] This technique has two major drawbacks:

1) It produces unbalanced profiles for one or more markers, with possible disappearance of an allele due to the stochastic* effect.

(*Involving chance or probability)

2) It leads to the detection of one or more alleles in negative controls of unknown origin.

The first drawback leads to obtaining an incomplete profile, partially wrong and not reproducible. This low reliability goes against principles of quality advocated notably by standard ISO 17025 in force in our country.
The second requires necessarily working in special conditions to avoid contamination inherent in the environment and particularly from human DNA present in the dust in the atmosphere or on the surfaces of objects. Given the limitations of this technique, the conclusions produced could easily be attacked or invalidated during a trial. This technique is not routinely used in laboratories for genetic identification in Belgium.

AEK: If in a DNA analysis, 15 out of 19 markers belong to person, "x", can we conclude that it is indeed from that person?
S.A.: If the profile is complete and of quality, and the analysed markers are informative, then without doubt! The result is discriminating. This result is very very reliable. The error is in the region of 1 in a billion! It is almost impossible for it to be otherwise. For a convincing DNA profile, there must be a minimum of 7 base markers. In the case which you present, 15 markers out of 19 does not leave any hanging doubt. This result is completely reliable and usable in court. The error rate of one in a billion is so unlikely that the results are accepted by magistrates without lawyers being able to place them in doubt.

We are going to digress here. We understand even better the attitude of the PJ. Indeed, faced with the inconsistencies we are talking about above, the police officers have doubts. Then the dogs detect traces of blood and cadaver odour. The doubts transform into beliefs. But something is missing. All these elements are not sufficient to face charges in a court. Confirmation is lacking. Scientific confirmation. That confirmation arrives with the first report of analyses which states that 15 out of 19 DNA markers belong to Madeleine. That's all the police need. The evidence is there. Obvious. The first report of the analyses proves the parents' guilt in the eyes of the investigators. This report would be considered as irrefutable proof by, I believe, all the police. From then on the parents were placed, logically, under the specific status of, "arguidos." Of course, an error rate of 1 in a billion is not a 100% profile, in that Clarence Mitchell is right. Then, afterwards, comes a thunderbolt.* A second report from FSS arrives and totally contradicts the first. Also ruining the evidence the police thought they had. According to this report, the harvested samples would have been contaminated, making them very unreliable in the end. Several DNAs would have been mixed, creating the DNA of anyone!

* I took liberties there with the interpretation because that was the best phrase that came to me in the context!


EAK: If we harvest the DNA of three different people, can we recreate the DNA of anyone?

S.A.: If the harvested DNA is mixed with the DNA of three individuals in a balanced way, then effectively we could find the DNA profile of anyone. Mine just like yours. But the mixture must be perfectly balanced, otherwise the rate of reliability becomes very low, going from 1 in a billion to 1 in a thousand or 1 in a 100. It is no longer a question of considering this result as discriminating.

Ok, what happened? LCN unreliable? The samples contaminated during the second analysis but not in the first? The first analysis botched by FSS? There would be a good way of finding out. When two experts contradict each other, a third analysis is carried out in an independent lab. But, alas, following an incident that remains unexplained, the only existing DNA samples were, unforunately, lost or destroyed by the laboratory, which renders impossible a third analysis!

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"You can run on for a long time, Run on for a long time, Run on for a long time, Sooner or later God'll cut you down." (Johnny Cash)

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

Post  Bebootje on Mon 12 Mar - 10:04

Very very strange, indeed.
From Fss report:

The laboratory has examined one or more of the samples listed below. They will not be returned to you but will be destroyed in due course unless we are requested by the Defence to preserve them (which they did not, i guess). You should notify the Defence solicitors in accordance with Home Office circulars 40/73 and 74/82 which allow a period of 21 days in which notice in writing must be given, by the defendant or his legal representative to the laboratory to prevent the samples being destroyed.

- Blood samples.
- Saliva samples.
- Swabs from body orifices.
- Other swabs bearing potentially hazardous material.
- Vomit, faeces, urine, etc.

The above list includes perishable personal samples, the destruction of which is required by Section 64 of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act (1984).

B - Non-Perishable samples

The destruction of other, non-perishable personal samples is required by Section 64 of the Police and Criminal Evidence Act. These include:

- Control head hair samples.
- Control pubic hair samples.
- Finger nail samples.
- Casts- e.g of teeth or feet.

Except as below those non-perishable personal samples are returned to you as parts of exhibits for production at court, etc. The laboratory is not responsible for their destruction.

The part of these samples which were removed for examination, will be retained by the laboratory for the period of time as specified in the MOU for Retained Materials (3, 7 or 30 years) from the date of this notice to allow access to other legitimate parties. After this period, in the absence of written instruction to the contrary, the retained samples will be destroyed and a record made of their destruction.

The samples that were sent back (the hair samples) weren't of any use at that time because they contained no roots. As I understand at this time DNA can also be extracted out of hairs without roots. So maybe there is still a chance to proof Madeleine's presence in the hire car.

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Re: 15 out of 19 markers

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