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Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

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Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  Annabel on Thu 6 Sep - 19:22

http://patbrownprofiling.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/criminal-profiling-topic-of-day-occams.html


The concept of Occam's Razor, that the simplest explanation is likely to be true, is useful when analyzing the case of missing Madeleine McCann. With Scotland Yard having flushed millions of pounds of British taxpayer's money down the toilet in an effort to promote the most ludicrous of theories (in complete opposition to Occam's Razor), I want to step back to the night of May 3, 2007 and examine the simplest of answers.


Why did the McCanns leave Madeleine and her siblings alone in the vacation apartment evening after evening?

Because they were not worried that anyone would get into the apartment or that the children would get out.

Why were they not worried that anyone would get into the apartment or that the children would get out?

Because the apartment was thoroughly locked down so that it would be extremely difficult for anyone to get in or for the children to get out.

As then it would be routine for the McCanns to lock down the apartment when they went to the Tapas bar in the evening, would it be likely that they would change their routine on the evening of May 3, 2007 and leave the doors unlocked so that someone could get in or that one of their children could get out?

No.

Therefore, it is most likely that the apartment was locked down on May 3, 2007.

Yes.

Oh.


Criminal Profiler Pat Brown

September 6, 2012







Last edited by Annabel on Fri 7 Sep - 6:02; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  Guest on Thu 6 Sep - 19:30

Now that's what I like - short and punchy!

Some of the Articles we see are so prolix and tortuous that they discourage the reader.

This one most certainly doesn't.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  Lillyofthevalley on Thu 6 Sep - 19:39

As usual spot on and right on the money our Pat

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  interested on Thu 6 Sep - 19:48

I notice Pat Brown has attached HiDeHo's "Must See Support for Goncalo Amaral" video to her recent "tweet". This should garner a lot more support for his fight for justice. And, of course, for Madeleine.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  AnnaEsse on Fri 7 Sep - 0:07

Brilliant Pat. Put like that, what more can be said?

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?

Post  BelEddie on Fri 7 Sep - 7:55

Pure supposition!

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  whatsupdoc on Fri 7 Sep - 11:21

I think Pat Brown is very smart but I don't think the McCann's did Simple anything.

The creche records show confusion from the Sunday.

I think Madeleine died on the first night but I find it strange that the tapas group were so muddled . Were they only informed Wednesday or Thursday what happened? One of them could have assisted on the Saturday night if there was a need for a trachy, there being splatter marks all over the place. One person, was it Fiona, did mention about a resus being available if needed...a strange thing to say.

I don't think there was much getting into each other with the group that week, more like problems to solve and fridges to dispose of. Who would take a fridge to the tip and buy a new one, esp a Scot while on holiday...no way! So I reckon they were pretty busy during the days.

I don't know where the children slept each night and who did the babysitting but they could have taken it in turns. They wouldn't have left any doors open as Gerry was security conscious...he did say Nothing of any value was taken...disgusting! ...only Madeleine.






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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  Wallflower on Fri 7 Sep - 13:40

whatsupdoc wrote:I think Pat Brown is very smart but I don't think the McCann's did Simple anything.The creche records show confusion from the Sunday.

I think Madeleine died on the first night but I find it strange that the tapas group were so muddled . Were they only informed Wednesday or Thursday what happened? One of them could have assisted on the Saturday night if there was a need for a trachy, there being splatter marks all over the place. One person, was it Fiona, did mention about a resus being available if needed...a strange thing to say.

I don't think there was much getting into each other with the group that week, more like problems to solve and fridges to dispose of. Who would take a fridge to the tip and buy a new one, esp a Scot while on holiday...no way! So I reckon they were pretty busy during the days.

I don't know where the children slept each night and who did the babysitting but they could have taken it in turns. They wouldn't have left any doors open as Gerry was security conscious...he did say Nothing of any value was taken...disgusting! ...only Madeleine.






Agree

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  Christine on Fri 7 Sep - 13:47

That reminds me of the Mockumentary. When Gerry came home, the back door was locked. Kate even asked the kids 'Shall we let daddy in?' If they lock a door at home, why on earth would they leave a holiday apartment unlocked. Doesn't make sense at all.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  AnnaEsse on Fri 7 Sep - 13:49

Christine wrote:That reminds me of the Mockumentary. When Gerry came home, the back door was locked. Kate even asked the kids 'Shall we let daddy in?' If they lock a door at home, why on earth would they leave a holiday apartment unlocked. Doesn't make sense at all.

And the door at home was locked while Kate and the twins were in that room. Very safety conscious at home but not in a foreign country?

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  susible on Fri 7 Sep - 15:09

whatsupdoc wrote:I think Pat Brown is very smart but I don't think the McCann's did Simple anything.

The creche records show confusion from the Sunday.

I think Madeleine died on the first night but I find it strange that the tapas group were so muddled . Were they only informed Wednesday or Thursday what happened? One of them could have assisted on the Saturday night if there was a need for a trachy, there being splatter marks all over the place. One person, was it Fiona, did mention about a resus being available if needed...a strange thing to say.

I don't think there was much getting into each other with the group that week, more like problems to solve and fridges to dispose of. Who would take a fridge to the tip and buy a new one, esp a Scot while on holiday...no way! So I reckon they were pretty busy during the days.

I don't know where the children slept each night and who did the babysitting but they could have taken it in turns. They wouldn't have left any doors open as Gerry was security conscious...he did say Nothing of any value was taken...disgusting! ...only Madeleine.






I think that was Rachel oldfield, who said that if there had been an accident, there were six medics there who could have performed a resuscitation if needed...but yes, very odd thing to say.

And I also agree that this is a very concise piece from Pat, and is absolutely true

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  Panda on Fri 7 Sep - 16:30

I don't think the McCanns locked the Patio doors because that was the quickest way to check on the children. Didn't Gerry have a conversation with Jez across the road from the Gate .? First of all M said he opened the Patio Door and saw the twins but not Madeleine, then he said he listened at the window.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  HiDeHo on Fri 7 Sep - 19:39

Panda wrote:I don't think the McCanns locked the Patio doors because that was the quickest way to check on the children. Didn't Gerry have a conversation with Jez across the road from the Gate .? First of all M said he opened the Patio Door and saw the twins but not Madeleine, then he said he listened at the window.



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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  Panda on Fri 7 Sep - 20:42

Thanks HiDeHo........ I thought I remembered in the McCann recon that Gerry was talking to Jez across the road from the gate. There has been no news from Pat Brown about her taking Legal action against the McCanns for ordering amazon to remove the sale of her book, strange .

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  marxman on Sat 8 Sep - 13:21

Panda wrote:Thanks HiDeHo........ I thought I remembered in the McCann recon that Gerry was talking to Jez across the road from the gate. There has been no news from Pat Brown about her taking Legal action against the McCanns for ordering amazon to remove the sale of her book, strange .

Hi panda, do you remember, or have I imagined
this, but didn't Jez describe seeing Gerry come
out from nowhere and thought he was at the
shutters?
I'm fairly positive that it was reported that he
believed that Gerry may have been 'answering
the call of nature' before they met.
This was a long time ago, when things were being
reported more honestly, but like lots of stuff, it
has vanished and not to be seen again.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  Panda on Sat 8 Sep - 16:25

marxman wrote:
Panda wrote:Thanks HiDeHo........ I thought I remembered in the McCann recon that Gerry was talking to Jez across the road from the gate. There has been no news from Pat Brown about her taking Legal action against the McCanns for ordering amazon to remove the sale of her book, strange .

Hi panda, do you remember, or have I imagined
this, but didn't Jez describe seeing Gerry come
out from nowhere and thought he was at the
shutters?
I'm fairly positive that it was reported that he
believed that Gerry may have been 'answering
the call of nature' before they met.
This was a long time ago, when things were being
reported more honestly, but like lots of stuff, it
has vanished and not to be seen again.

Hi marxman, the shutters would have been at the other side of the apartment so doubt Jez would have mentioned them.

Gerry himself said he went to the toilet before leaving the Apartment.......I wondered at the time why we needed to know that. Jez Wilkins does say that when he returned to the U.K. he received a few telephone calls from Gerry regarding their meeting until he got annoyed about it.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

Post  Lioned on Sat 8 Sep - 16:29

It was only after the shutters story hit the buffers that the doors open/checking nonsense started.The doors were locked and there was no checking,they didn't care about the kids they were too busy boozing and gorging themselves,why on earth would they keep dropping everything to run up and down the road,ridiculous.Maddie was already dead and they were down the pub getting pissed.

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Re: Criminal Profiling Topic of the Day: Occam's Razor and The Madeleine McCann Case

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