U.K. Economy picking up?

UNEMPLOYMENT DROPPED BY 65,000

Badboy wrote:UNEMPLOYMENT DROPPED BY 65,000

I think you will find Badboy this is a temporary blip because of the Games.

Panda wrote:

Badboy wrote:UNEMPLOYMENT DROPPED BY 65,000

I think you will find Badboy this is a temporary blip because of the Games.

THAT WHAT SOME ARE SAYING

jaguar? are creating 1,100 jobs in midlands
another car maker to create 900 in county durham

ALDI TO CREATE 4,500 JOBS,PLANNING TO OPEN 100 MORE STORES

POST OFFICE TO CREATE 1,000 JOBS BECAUSE OF INTERNET BOOM IN PARCEL SENDING.

The latest economic figures are scewed as they include all the Olympic sales.Economy is still in crisis.Too many old people,too many on benefits,too many unemployed,too many immigrants,too much debt,too little gold since brown gave it away.No strategy to deal with it except some silly old tosser telling pensioners to work for nothing.May survive the next couple of months on the back of the Xmas shopping.Good chance back in recession by March.

Ian Duncan Smith was interviewed on the Andrew Marr programme this morning and he came across as a reasonable guy with intelligent reasons for limiting child benefits to 2 children whose Parents are out of work.

1. Children raised in Families whose Parents never work will probably never work themselves.

2. It is not just the child benefit , it is more than two children needing bigger houses costing more benefit, more Council Tax all of which is paid by the Government.

3. It is unfair that sensible Parents who limit their progeny to what they can afford but those who rely on the Government to pay are too lazy to use birth control. Free contraception is available at all clinics.

Curtailing immigration was mentioned but not discussed.....maybe too much to hope for at the moment.

MICROSOFT TO HIRE 4,000 PEOPLE(MAINLY APPRENTICES?)

Badboy wrote:MICROSOFT TO HIRE 4,000 PEOPLE(MAINLY APPRENTICES?)

A drop in the Ocean Badboy. as the libor crisis has cost the Banks millions and they are now are facing more lawsuits from Investment companies, Councils etc the number of Bank Staff losing their jobs is increasing.

It is estimated more well known Companies will be closing down in the coming Year because the World is now in recession.....even China is worried.!!!

Twitter: steve hawkes - Bank of England hands QE income to Treasury - sounds like my Quantitative Pleasing programme to me.. chapeau Merv!
http://t.co/nLrjrV9h

14.01 While Jeremy Warner writes that the Chancellor and the Governor of the Bank of England have concocted a backdoor version of QE:

The latest little (actually quite big at a tidy £35bn) money printing wheeze comes about as close to outright monetising of government spending as it is possible for the Bank of England to go without simply creating the money and handing it by the lorry load to the Treasury, a la Weimar.

What the Treasury has decided to do is take the accumulated interest payments on the stock of government debt the Bank of England has bought under quantitative easing, and credit it to the Government's books rather than the Bank of England's. The total is £35bn, of which the government intends to take £11bn this financial year and £24bn next.

This obviously helps the deficit in these two years quite a lot, creating space, should the Chancellor wish to take it, to ease back a little on the fiscal squeeze. For instance, he might choose to take the shadow Chancellor's advice and further delay a scheduled increase in fuel duties. It also makes it easier for Mr Osborne to meet his fiscal mandate of eliminating the structural deficit within five years. Even the supplementary target of falling debt as a percentage of GDP by the end of the parliament – the one which City forecasters now widely believe Osborne will miss without further austerity – is marginally benefited by the latest piece of sleight of hand.

Europe is officially in recession and it looks as though Britain will follow suit. Moody's will review it's AAA rating in January after the Christmas splurge is over.

VAT May Have To Rise To 25%, Warns IFS


Austerity until 2018 and a drastic hike in VAT may be necessary to plug the hole in Treasury coffers, analysts warn.


5:37pm UK, Monday 26 November 2012



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  Public sector net borrowing by month (in £bn).
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
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Chancellor George Osborne may have to hike VAT to 25% as he continues his battle to restore Britain's economic health, analysts have suggested.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) warned struggling Britons could face yet more spending cuts and tax rises because of weaker economic growth and lower tax revenues.

If these problems are permanent, the Chancellor will need to plug a £23bn black hole if he is to meet his financial targets by 2018, according to the respected think tank.

Achieving this from tax hikes alone would be "roughly equivalent to increasing the main rate of VAT from 20% to 25%", the IFS said.

Mr Osborne is due to reveal his latest economic plans next week when he unveils his Autumn Statement on December 5.

But the lack of scope for tax increases has been laid bare by a new spending power report by Lloyds TSB.

Its research found the squeeze on family budgets - as a result of stubborn inflation and weak wage growth - was just as strong in October as it was a year earlier.

It warned that rising energy bills this winter would only exacerbate the situation.

The IFS suggested Mr Osborne may also have to tear up one of his key austerity goals because Government borrowing is likely to rise this year.
The era of austerity could run for eight more years, according to the IFS
The Chancellor has been battling to keep his financial targets on track as the economy continues to stay in the doldrums.

He has already extended the planned period of spending cuts by two years, well beyond the next election in 2015, and warned of further welfare cuts.

But poor growth since his Budget in March means more bad news is expected next week, including the embarrassment of higher borrowing this year than last.

"Since the budget, the outlook for the UK economy has deteriorated and Government receipts have disappointed by even more than this year's weak growth would normally suggest," said IFS deputy director Carl Emmerson.

"The planned era of austerity could run for eight years - from 2010-11 to 2017-18."

The think-tank estimates Mr Osborne may need to find another £11bn in tax rises or welfare cuts for the post-election period.

This is on top of extending the same squeeze on public spending already planned and the extra welfare cuts that have already been discussed.

It predicted that borrowing would reach £133bn for the year ending March 2013 if current trends continue, £13bn above the Office for Budget Responsibility's spring forecast.

"This would mean that underlying borrowing rose between 2011-12 and 2012-13 rather than fell as the Chancellor George Osborne had intended," the IFS said.

Rising borrowing would be a major blow to the Tories, who promised to all but eliminate a record budget deficit by the time of the 2015 election and to get Britain's public sector net debt falling as a percentage of national output by 2015/16.

The IFS said Mr Osborne might have to scrap the latter target.

"The Chancellor would likely be best advised to abandon the rule and consult on replacing it with something that better ensures long-run sustainability rather than engage in significant further fiscal tightening in order to remain on course to comply with this target," it said.

The report came as the "quad" of Mr Osborne, David Cameron, Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander were gathering in Downing Street to finalise next week's statement.

There are hopes the Chancellor will cancel the planned 3p hike in fuel duty due in January. Fresh taxes aimed at the wealthy are also expected.

A Treasury spokesman said: "Action taken by the Government has cut the deficit by a quarter, whilst over a million new jobs have been created in the private sector, inflation is down, and the economy is healing.

"Britain still faces economic challenges at home and abroad but the Government is taking the tough decisions needed to deal with our debts and equip our economy for the global race."

But TUC general secretary Brendan Barber insisted the IFS report was further proof that the coalition's strategy is "failing on all counts".

"The UK should be on the road to recovery by now. Instead we could be set for a prolonged period of debilitating austerity well beyond the next election," he said.

"The Chancellor should use his Autumn Statement next week to change course. Sadly he looks set to drive the economy even faster in the wrong direction."

• Related stories
  
• Tax Backlash Prospect For Independent Shops
  

MAYBE HE SHOULD ENCOURAGE EVERY BENEFIT RECEPIANT(SP?) TO DO HOMEWORKING LIKE SURVEYS,IF EVERYONE OF THE APPROXIAMETLY 3 MILLION CLAIMANTS CLAIMANT WENT £1 ABOVE THE £20 LIMIT EVERY WEEK,GEORGE OSBORNE COULD SAVE OVER 1000,BILLION POUNDS A YEAR.
NOW THERE'S AN IDEA!

Badboy wrote:MAYBE HE SHOULD ENCOURAGE EVERY BENEFIT RECEPIANT(SP?) TO DO HOMEWORKING LIKE SURVEYS,IF EVERYONE OF THE APPROXIAMETLY 3 MILLION CLAIMANTS CLAIMANT WENT £1 ABOVE THE £20 LIMIT EVERY WEEK,GEORGE OSBORNE COULD SAVE OVER 1000,BILLION POUNDS A YEAR.
NOW THERE'S AN IDEA!

Don't know quite what 3 million claimants doing surveys from home would achieve Badboy these are already catered for by Companies ........£1,000 Billion would certainly balance the Budget.

RETAIL SHOPS ARE HIRING MORE STAFF

A WHISKY DISTILLERY IS TO OPEN IN CUMBRIA CREATING 25 JOBS,WILL HAVE VISITOR CENTRE ETC

Badboy wrote:A WHISKY DISTILLERY IS TO OPEN IN CUMBRIA CREATING 25 JOBS,WILL HAVE VISITOR CENTRE ETC

So basically a pub ?

IMF Cuts UK Growth Forecast For Next Two Years


The Chancellor's economic policy takes another hit after the International Monetary Fund cuts its UK growth prediction.


3:02pm UK, Wednesday 23 January 2013

The IMF's downgrade for Britain is a blow to the Chancellor

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By Ed Conway, Economics Editor

The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for UK growth this year and the next, in the latest economic blow for Chancellor George Osborne.

The IMF cut its forecast for Britain's expansion next year by more than any other major economy apart from Japan, dealing a blow to those hoping for a quick rebound from the recent double-dip.

The news comes days ahead of the release of official gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the final quarter of last year, which analysts expect will show the UK slipping back into economic contraction.

The IMF said that Britain would grow by 1% this year - 0.1 percentage points lower than in its October forecast, and by 1.9% next year - a 0.3 percentage point cut compared with October.

The changes came in the IMF's update to its World Economic Outlook.

The IMF is now more pessimistic on UK growth than the official forecasts delivered by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which expects growth of 1.2% this year and 2% in 2014.

Although it cut its forecasts for most countries around the world by 0.1% this year and the next, it said that it was cautiously positive about the global economy's prospects.

It predicted that world GDP growth would be 3.5% this year and 4.1% next year.

But added that "global growth is projected to increase during 2013, as the factors underlying soft global activity are expected to subside".

It said that unless the eurozone crisis returned, or the United States faced a crisis associated with its debt ceiling, "global growth could be stronger than projected".

However, it added that policymakers "must urgently address these risks".

It said that it expects the US to grow by 2% this year and by 3% in 2014.

======================

King, the BOE Governor is willing yet again to go for quantitive easing ....he has been a disaster and the sooner he retires the better.

IMF urges George Osborne to move to Plan B


George Osborne needs to move to Plan B on the economy by toning down his austerity programme to revive growth, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Olivier Blanchard has urged.








Oliver Blanchard, the IMF chief economist, said: 'We think that slower fiscal consolidation in some form may well be appropriate.' Photo: Getty





By Philip Aldrick, Economics Editor, in Davos

1:55PM GMT 24 Jan 2013

8 Comments




Mr Blanchard said that “slower fiscal consolidation may well be appropriate” after the fund cuts its UK growth forecasts for the second time in just four months.


Over the past two years, the IMF has repeatedly warned the Chancellor he would need to change tack if the recovery failed to take off. Mr Blanchard has now judged the time to react has come.


“We said if things look bad at the beginning of 2013 – which they do – then there should be some reassessment of fiscal policy,” he told the BBC’s Today programme. “You have a Budget coming, and I think this would be a good time to actually take stock and see whether some adjustments should now be made.


“We think that slower fiscal consolidation in some form may well be appropriate.”


Last May, the IMF called on the Government to consider temporary tax cuts and more infrastructure spending if the economy failed to grow in 2012. Official GDP figures due today (Fri) are expected to show that the economy contracted by around 0.2pc in the final quarter of last year, and by 0.1pc for 2012 as a whole.



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At the time, IMF insiders suggested that the scale of the fiscal loosening could be as much as £30bn, about 2pc of GDP, accompanied by a clearly defined path to get the deficit back under control.

Mr Blanchard’s comments will put Mr Osborne under enormous pressure, as he has previously hitched his plan’s credibility to IMF endorsement.

Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Bank of England rate-setter, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland: “Professor Blanchard is right and he has the research to back it up.”

Mr Posen has previously called for a state-owned business lending bank and greater spending on infrastructure.

However, another leading economist urged the Chancellor to stay the course. Ken Rogoff, Harvard’s celebrated economist and an expert in government debt, told The Daily Telegraph that a fiscal stimulus would be “deeply misguided”.

He said the UK deficit reduction plan was the “right” policy. “The whole idea of a Keynesian stimulus is deeply misguided,” he said at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

Mr Rogoff added that the Government’s use of its balance sheet to guarantee infrastructure projects and boost private sector investment was “very clever”, and should be used more extensively.

Echoing Bank of England Governor Sir Mervyn King earlier this week, however, he said patience was needed due to the scale of the UK’s debts alongside the economy’s dependence on financial services and the struggling eurozone.

On Wednesday, the IMF cut its UK growth forecast for this year from 1.1pc to 1pc and for next year from 2.2pc to 1.9pc. It estimated that the economy shrank by 0.2pc in 2012.

Last May, the IMF set out a raft of proposals to boost growth. They included the Bank of England increasing money printing above £325bn, relaxing banking rules to boost lending, and providing banks’ state-backed funding support.

It also suggested the Government should adjust its spending plan by cutting public sector wages and investing more in infrastructure. If all those failed to revive growth, then more drastic actions would be needed.

The Bank and the Chancellor have effectively followed the IMF’s guidance to the letter so far, even though it meant the Government missed its deficit reduction rules. Mr Osborne has drawn the line at changing his plan, however, although it is now scheduled to last three years longer than originally envisaged.

Ed Balls MP, Labour’s Shadow Chancellor, said: “David Cameron and George Osborne must finally heed the IMF’s advice. They have repeatedly warned that a change of course would be needed in Britain if the economy turns out worse than expected. After two and a half years of flatlining and a double-dip recession the IMF is now clearly losing patience.

“The IMF has said such a plan B should include policies Labour has long called for – including temporary tax cuts, such as a VAT reduction, and bringing forward long-term infrastructure investment.

“The longer the Government clings on to its failing plan, the more long-term damage they will do to our economy. David Cameron and George Osborne must now put political pride aside and put the national economic interest first.”

The Treasury was sanguine about Mr Blanchard's comments. A senior figure said: "He has been saying the same thing for two years."

UK GDP Falls By 0.3% In Last Quarter


GDP falls by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, leaving year-on-year economic growth flat and fears of a looming 'triple-dip' recession.


10:13am UK, Friday 25 January 2013

The forecast contraction was 0.1% but the actual amount was 0.3%

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The UK's national output has fallen by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The contraction, which was worse than most forecasts, compared to a 0.9% rise in the previous three months.

Britain now appears closer to its third recession in four years, or the so-called triple-dip recession.

The ONS said GDP contracted partially on lower output from the North Sea resource producers and manufacturers.

Mining and quarrying also suffered its biggest fall in output since records began in 1997.

The ONS also said it was the biggest contraction in Government and other services sector since the second quarter of 2008.

The figure now raises more concerns over the economic policy of the coalition Government.

On Thursday it defended its austerity programme against criticism from the International Monetary Fund's chief economist.

The economy is now 3.3% smaller than its peak in Q1 2008, recovering only about half the output lost during the financial crisis - a worse performance than other major economies.

The disruption to North Sea oil and gas fields was partially attributed to a maintenance programme which saw the shut down of certain key pumping infrastructure.

This knocked 0.18% off GDP, while slightly smaller amounts of damage were done by a fall in factory output and in the 'Government and other services' category.

In the third quarter this sector was boosted by the London Olympics effect on sports and recreation services.

At the start of 2013 one-off factors, such as January's snow, may seal the fate of an economy on a knife-edge between growth and contraction, with major retailer John Lewis already warning that snow had hit sales growth.

Dave, George and Boris 'out for pizza' night before GDP woe


David Cameron and George Osborne appeared to be in high spirits over dinner at a pizza restaurant last night just hours before figures showed the economy is slipping back towards recession








Ben Stewart took this picture of David Cameron sitting down for a pizza in Davos Photo: @benstewart999






By Rowena Mason, Political correspondent

10:31AM GMT 25 Jan 2013


275 Comments




The two most powerful men in Britain were out for dinner in Davos, Switzerland, after both giving speeches to business leaders at the World Economic Forum.


The Chancellor had already been given advance notice of Britain's poor GDP figures, which this morning were revealed to the public. They showed the economy went into reverse by 0.3 per cent in the last quarter of 2012.


Mr Osborne told an interviewer on Thursday afternoon that the economy is "heading in the right direction", even though it would be a "difficult path".


He and the Prime Minister were later spotted "loudly" joking and "laughing uproariously" along with Boris Johnson, the London Mayor, at a pizzeria in the Hotel Alte Post.


The three Conservatives and their entourage were caught on a mobile phone camera by Ben Stewart, the head of media at Greenpeace, who tweeted the image.



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They were all staying overnight in the mountain town of Davos, where the world's most influential businessmen and politicians gather for a summit on economics each year.

A pizza with smoked ham, rocket salad and parmesan is £20, or 31 Swiss Francs.

He posted on Twitter: "I watched Cam, Os and BoJo's raucous Davos dinner last night, wondering if GDP figures great or if they didn't care. Guess we know now..."

Mr Stewart, a prominent 'direct action' climate campaigner who has taken part in protests against power stations and oil rigs, told the Daily Telegraph: "It was very much the Prime Minister holding the floor in the middle, rather like Father Christmas on Christmas day.

"The word that kept coming up was Boris. The Prime Minister kept on saying Boris this, Boris that and then Boris was defending himself in his usual rambunctious fashion."

Mr Johnson was sat opposite Mr Cameron, with Mr Osborne to the Prime Minister's right.

Mr Stewart added: "They were a corner table in a protected area and it was difficult to get close because there were lots of special branch whispering into their sleeves, but I pretended to go to the loo so I could hear."

Last night, Damien McBride, a former adviser to Gordon Brown, observed: "There's surely no way on God's Green Earth that Osborne would be in Davos eating pizza tonight if GDP is in negative territory tomorrow."

He said the gathering would be described as "pepperoni-gate" if they had allowed themselves to be pictured having fun abroad the day before poor news about the economy.

The manager of the restaurant said: "We did recognise some people who were in here but we have to respect the privacy of our guests."

Official figures released at 9.30am showed the UK economy did not grow at all last year, because of the poor results for the last three months of 2012.

Experts said the economy shrank in the final quarter as Britain's manufacturers suffered their worst year since the financial crisis.

Tony Dolphin, chief economist at the IPPR, said there would not necessarily be a triple-dip recession but the economy remains in crisis.

"We will not know for sure whether the economy is back in recession for another three months," he said. "And even then, history suggests there is always a chance that the GDP figures will be revised and that any recession will be subsequently eradicated from the record.

"What we do know, however, is that the economy is facing a triple crisis: stagnation, debt and imbalance

BT ARE TO HIRE 1,000 PEOPLE IN BID TO EXPAND BROADBAND COVERAGE

Recovery hopes dashed by weak manufacturing


Recovery hopes have been dealt another blow by January data for the
production industries, including manufacturing, that showed output shrank far
more sharply than expected - sending sterling crashing to a fresh two-and-a-half
year low.








The current Mini hatchback is
built at Mini Plant
Oxford






By Philip Aldrick, Economics
Editor

9:55AM GMT 12 Mar 2013


110 Comments




A slight improvement in the balance of trade for the month, published in a
separate release, provided little solace following the 1.2pc decline in
industrial production between December and January, according to the Office for
National Statistics.


It was the weakest reading since September. Economists had expected expansion
of 0.1pc.


Although the decline was once again caused largely by North Sea oil platform
shutdowns, the UK’s manufacturing sector also disappointed.


Following a 1.6pc increase in December, the sector – which remains the
country’s largest single industry – declined by 1.5pc.


The figures will rekindle fears of a triple dip recession, following the
0.3pc GDP contraction in the final three months of last year.



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"This is the penultimate nail in the coffin in terms of triple-dip - it's
pretty much game over now," said Alan Clarke, economist at Scotiabank.

"Unless we have a stellar performance from the services sector, we're almost
certainly in a triple dip."

The pound fell sharply against the dollar, touching $1.4832 at one point, the
lowest level since June 2010.



^{The pound fell to $1.4832 at one point, the lowest level since June
2010}

The trade figures were a little better than hoped, with the deficit in goods
and services in January shrinking slightly from £2.8bn in December to £2.4bn in
January. The goods deficit, which some had feared would expand from £8.9bn to
£9bn, shrank to £8.2bn.

The improvement was not driven by an increase in exports over the latest
three months, but by a 2pc decline in imports. In fact, non-oil exports fell
5.4pc in the month, the worst decline since April 2012.

"This is suggestive of headwinds to UK economic activity, and could be
consistent with further policy easing," Steven Bryce, Credit Suisse economist,
said.

He added about the industrial production figures: "This number more-or-less
reverses the strong December reading, and leaves the first quarter GDP print
potentially looking weak."

Clegg Launches £1bn Aerospace Pledge


A Government pledge will see hundreds of millions of pounds
of public money channelled into a key industry, Sky News understands.


6:23pm UK,
Saturday 16 March 2013

Airbus undertakes key production elements in
Britain

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  By Mark Kleinman, City Editor
  
  The Government will next week commit hundreds of millions of
  pounds of public money to Britain’s aerospace industry as it attempts to
  accelerate the rebalancing of the flagging economy.
  
  I understand that Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister, will make the pledge
  on Monday when he unveils the latest phase of the Aerospace Growth Partnership
  (AGP).
  
  Similar to initiatives already launched in the automotive and defence
  industries, the AGP will involve money committed by the major companies in the
  sector – including Airbus, Bombardier and Rolls-Royce – being match-funded by
  the Government.
  
  Insiders said on Saturday that the total funding under the AGP could reach
  £1bn within a few years.
  
  Unusually for an industrial initiative of this kind, Mr Clegg will commit to
  resourcing the AGP well beyond the lifetime of the Coalition Government by
  saying that the commitment will run for ten years.
  
  The longer duration of the pledges to support the aerospace industry are
  designed to counter accusations that the Government is too short-term in its
  industrial outlook, and should enable big companies to make longer-term
  investment decisions, officials said.
  
  The focus of the new funding will go towards supporting the infrastructure on
  which the aerospace industry depends, such as research and development activity,
  and protecting and enhancing the sector’s supply chain.
  
  Aerospace is one of the UK’s most important industries, directly employing
  more than 100,000 people and recording more than £24bn in annual earnings,
  according to a document published by the Government last week.
  
  “The UK’s current strength is the result of significant public and private
  investment in research and technology in the late last century. The UK aerospace
  industry is faced
  
  with increasing competition globally not only from traditional aerospace
  manufacturing nations but also from developing aerospace nations,” it said.
  
  “We can’t stand still. To stay at the forefront of the increasingly global
  aerospace industry, the UK needs to secure strategic work packages on the new
  programmes, as those we are currently working on come to the end of production
  and support over the next few years.
  
  "Action is needed now to ensure that public and private investment is
  increased to globally competitive levels.”
  
  Mr Clegg’s announcement will come two days ahead of a Budget in which George
  Osborne, the Chancellor, is under pressure to provide much greater stimulus for
  industrial growth.