No Coalition divorce yet, but a seperation is looking more likely

No Coalition divorce yet, but a separation is looking more likely


Europe may be the big issue but Trident and energy are also testing the partnership









Coalition government is hardly making Mr Cameron look like a strong leader




By Iain Martin

7:00PM GMT 03 Nov 2012

157 Comments




Is David Cameron losing his grip on power?


The argument made by the Prime Minister’s supporters when the Coalition was formed was that it would lead to stable government and give Mr Cameron authority to take difficult decisions without the risk of parliamentary defeat. Mr Cameron was reluctant to form a minority government without Liberal Democrat support because it might leave him at the mercy of Conservative MPs, many of whom he doesn’t trust.


In the light of recent developments, the fractious Coalition increasingly seems to be delivering the opposite of what its advocates intended. Conservative and Lib Dem ministers are now openly at war on energy policy, and the Government was defeated last week by Eurosceptic Tory MPs who want a cut in the EU’s budget. Ed Miliband says that the Prime Minister is weak – an obviously partisan exaggeration, although coalition government is hardly making Mr Cameron look like a strong leader.





Can Mr Cameron control his parliamentary party?



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Worryingly for the Tory leader, many of his MPs are becoming increasingly unbiddable and difficult to whip. The traditional notion that Conservative MPs should do what the whips’ office tells them, in all but the most unusual circumstances, has broken down. In part, this is because of the existence of a coalition. Some Tory MPs feel compelled to stand up for Conservative interests, as they see it, when the Prime Minister is pulled too far in a Liberal Democrat direction by Nick Clegg, the Deputy Prime Minister. Yet it is much more than that.

Those from the 2010 Tory intake, on the whole an independent-minded and impressive bunch, take the refreshing view that their job is to stand up for what they believe and to represent the interests of their constituents. It shows just how discredited politics has become that this is seen as a revolutionary concept. None of this means that all of the rebels are somehow gunning for Mr Cameron, although some are.

However, in alliance with other long-standing MPs, a large number do seem to have figured out that often the only way to get the Tory leader to take notice or respond on a subject such as the EU budget is to hold his feet to the fire.



How damaging was Mr Cameron’s defeat on the EU budget?

The vote by MPs last week demanding a cut was made possible by the rare combination of Labour MPs and Tory rebels voting together. The vote isn’t binding, although it weakens prime ministerial authority, and he will be in for a rough ride if he returns with a deal deemed inadequate by critics. When he goes to Brussels this month to negotiate a deal on the EU budget, his fellow leaders will know that he is under fire at home. This will add to the sense on the Continent that Britain is drifting towards the EU exit, as the members of the eurozone respond to the recent crisis of the single currency by pushing for closer integration.

At home, the pressure from Euro-sceptics is also only going to increase. Mr Cameron wants to put off renegotiating the terms of the UK’s membership of the EU until after the next general election, a position that many Tory Euro-sceptics – some coming around to the idea of withdrawal from the EU – find hopelessly feeble.



What does it mean for the Coalition?

Europe is an important strain, although there are other stresses. The love affair that began in the Downing Street Rose Garden between Mr Cameron and Mr Clegg in May 2010 long ago lost its lustre. Two-and-a-half years into their five-year marriage, the parties are not quite ready for full divorce, but a separation at some point looks likely. Poisonous ill-feeling is disrupting the basic business of government. When, last week, Philip Hammond the Defence Secretary announced he was taking a step on the way to the renewal of Trident, Britain’s nuclear deterrent, up popped his Cabinet colleague Mr Clegg to contradict him.

John Hayes, the Tory Energy Minister, delighted Conservatives with a colourful renunciation of windmills, an icon of Cameroon orthodoxy a few years ago. The Lib Dems were furious and Ed Davey, the Energy Secretary, took to the airwaves to claim: “I’m in charge”. With such enormous challenges facing the country, this dysfunctional style of management is hardly conducive to good government.



Will it be Europe that pulls the Coalition apart?

If the Coalition breaks up before May 2015, the EU could be the decisive issue. While it is fashionable to regard the worst of the euro crisis as being over, its re-emergence would strengthen the hand of those who say that the time has come for some clear British decisions on Europe. If there are vast bail-outs required for Spain, or Italy, it will add to the sense of climactic crisis. For his part, in classic Cameron style, the Tory leader will hope that the single currency can muddle through for the next two years or so and the Coalition with it.



Was Labour’s stance on the EU budget simply cynical opportunism?

Yes. After a long spell in office where it was happy to hand over more powers to Brussels and to oversee significant increases in the funds that Britain contributes, Labour’s attempt to reinvent itself as an outfit which seeks value for money and is prepared to talk tough to the EU is essentially bogus. But in voting with the Tory Euro-sceptics and defeating the Government, the Opposition executed a deft piece of tactical manoeuvring that put pressure on Mr Cameron. But the reality is that Labour’s position on Europe remains muddled and vague.

The party leadership’s line is that Britain must not be isolated in the EU, and that the Government should be “in the room” when negotiations are taking place. It is unclear whether Labour has much practical to offer beyond such homilies. The party has yet to do any serious thinking on what Britain’s relationship should be with a recast EU.

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I wouldn't be at all surprised if Cameron is forced out by his Backbenchers in favour of another Leader. He has proved quite inept and his judgement impaired by his relationship with Murdoch and Brooks. He took on Andy Coulson , BIG Mistake. Cameron has no standing in Europe and I don't know why he is so afraid to leave the EU.

I remember when the knives were out for Maggie Thatcher, it was brutal and quick .....watch this space.