Pat Brown: "Find the Body and Prove They Did it." Friday, May 23 2014

http://patbrownprofiling.blogspot.fr/

Friday, May 23, 2014



"Find the Body and Prove They Did it."

No Body Here, Scotland Yard

I have read some pretty good arguments from people who think Scotland Yard is gearing up for a big surprise ending in which they (and the PJ) bring down the McCanns. Extradition to Portugal is supported by the British government and the McCanns are found guilty in a court of Portuguese law. The case against Dr. Amaral is dropped, Pat Brown's book, Profile of the Disappearance of Madeleine McCann is returned to the market by Amazon, Gonçalo and I team up for our English language book on the case (we have already had this in the works with our agents but because of the lawsuit issue right now, no US publishers will touch it), and all who believed the McCanns were guilty of the death and disappearance of their daughter will be vindicated of being vicious trolls.

If you all don't think I would like to be wrong about my thoughts that Scotland Yard is going to whitewash this case, you are seriously wrong. I want to be wrong; I will be ecstatic to be wrong. I would rather be surprised by a police department doing some really new crazy style of investigation than be wrong about my profiling, believe you me, and, I want to see justice more than I want to be right about anything.

I have already written a bunch about why I think this Scotland Yard investigation stinks, but let me go further into why, even if it were well-meaning, it makes not a damn bit of sense.

A good many investigations are dropped, not because the police don't know who did it but because the chances of a successful prosecution are slim to none. And that is what we have here. Let's look at the issues:


1) It doesn't matter that the police ran down every possible child abductor in the area and came up empty-handed. Just because they can't figure out who "abducted" Maddie, doesn't have a thing to do with proving the McCanns were involved in her death and disappearance.




2) Not being able to prove there was an abduction is not the same as proving there wasn't one. Just because there was no evidence left at the scene that proves a stranger was in the flat, doesn't mean one wasn't one there. Even if Kate's story about the an open window and whooshing curtains is suspicious and can be used as supporting evidence that the McCanns were involved in covering up a crime if other solid evidence existed, alone it cannot be used to prove they staged a crime scene.




3) The cadaver dog evidence is not admissable in court. It is great for probable cause for further investigation and it is great as evidence of where to search for a body (since a car was used, the body would be outside of, not in PDL) but it is not proof in a court of law that Maddie died in the apartment and was disposed of by the McCanns.




4) That stories changed and were conflicting and the behavior of the Tapas 9 bizarre and concerning is but more information for future investigation, but alone is not proof of homicide (intentional or not) nor of body removal.




5) There is some DNA but it has been so questioned by "experts" that a defense attorney will shred this in court.




6) No confession. Unless one or both of the McCanns confess.




7) No credible confession from any of the Tapas 7, especially Jane Tanner, since now Scotland Yard has publicly verified her sighting, so she couldn't have been lying for the McCanns (not only that, but if Scotland Yard can't produce Tannerman, the defense would wreak havoc with that lie of law enforcement). Unless they know exactly where the body can be dug up (and there is no way I believe if Gerry McCann carried Maddie's body off, anyone knows where she is, except possibly Kate), there is no way to prove what they say is true. More than one of the Tapas 7 would have to testify in court in order for a defense lawyer not to be able to knock the claims down. And how are they going to get the Tapas 7 to Portugal except to charge them with a crime as well and have an arrest warrant issued for England to comply with is problematic (why the Tapas 7 would even talk at this point is also quite questionable).




8) Proof that Maddie was overmedicated cannot be proven without a body; that she fell and died of a concussion cannot be proven without a body; that the McCanns moved her and buried her cannot be proven without a body. This is a huge hill for any prosecution to climb.




9) No body, no case. Really, no body, no case.




10) With all the screw-ups, interventions, media, etc., the defense lawyer would have a field day tearing apart the case.




So, prosecution is extremely unlikely to occur unless Maddie's body is found and found with evidence that links back to the McCanns or the body is found in a place that links to the McCanns (like where I want them to search at Monte do Jose Mestre, the desolate area just west of Praia da Luz where Gerry's phone pinged after he rented the hire car). Unless Scotland Yard is really looking in the right places (and not in the middle of Praia da Luz), then this case is unlikely to have a body to go to court with.

Let's go back to the beginning. The McCanns petitioned Scotland Yard to work on the case, something they would be extraordinarily unlikely to do if they really thought Scotland Yard was going to focus on the evidence. Only if they got wind through Clarence that Scotland Yard was planning a clever partnership with Portugal to bring the McCanns down and went ahead and pretended they wanted the an investigation because this would make them look innocent ...whew...yeah, it have to be something like this for the investigation to be other than a planned whitewash (unless they were truly innocent as the pro-McCanners would point out and will point out if Scotland Yard ends this case without naming the McCanns at least suspects).

Why would Scotland Yard, barring a whitewash for reasons none of us can seem to figure out, want to waste their time with a likely unwinnable case that won't even be prosecuted on home turf? Why would they spend millions and millions of pounds on this one case which has two neglectful parents and happened in another country? If Scotland Yard never got involved, the case would simply dwindle away as do all unsolved missing person cases and, in this case, it is even easier for the police to just let it fade because Portugal can be blamed and the UK police don't have to worry about the case affecting them. For that matter, they could have just spent a small amount of money sending a little team over to come up with limited results as happens all the time in cold cases.

Furthermore, it would be hugely embarrassing for Britain to admit the Portuguese were right and they were wrong, that their politicians and media broke their necks to support such a criminal couple and that due to this, they almost let them walk and they allowed them to bilk the public out of millions of pounds with their fraudulent fund. Would the powers that be in the UK really want to get their necks chopped off? I doubt it.

All of this is why I find it hard to believe Scotland Yard is planning a big coup. I think they are just following a prescribed plan which makes it looks like they tried real hard: they read all the files, did months of analysis, went to the public for tips, fought with the PJ for cooperation, found a number of reasonable suspects, recognized the child could have died at the time or sometime after the crime was committed, that she could have been buried by the perp, that they tried to find her, and now that they have done everything an investigating agency can do, especially one having to work in another's jurisdiction, and they can give the McCanns at least the most probable answer. The McCanns will thank Scotland Yard profusely for trying to find Madeleine, for finding out what likely happened to Madeleine, and for putting all those ludicrous rumors about their involvement to rest (regardless of the truth of that).

Time will prove whether Scotland Yard is on the up and up or not. Again, I really hope I am going to have the biggest surprise of my profiling life, but I am preparing for what I expect will be a major disappointment.

PS. Someone just tweeted that maybe the McCanns could be prosecuted in the UK under British law. I think that is a fine idea but they still have the problem of trying to prosecute them for a crime they can't prove as of yet. When I wrote my book, I carefully avoided libel issues (admittedly, I still got Carter-Rucked) by stating that there was as of yet no proof a homicide had occurred and no proof that the McCanns were to blame and no proof that Maddie's body was removed and hidden by the McCanns. All I said was the evidence pointed toward the McCanns making them the reasonable suspects. If I were a prosecutor, I wouldn't take the case to court unless I had a confession or a body or both.

Criminal Profiler Pat Brown

May 23, 2014

I want to add the answer of Pat Brown to Jeanne d'Arc who published a (good) article about Pat's 10 reasons, on her blog http://unterdenteppichgekehrt.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/i-beg-to-differ.html?spref=tw
It shows Pat Brown has really got class.

"Pat Brown23. Mai 2014 23:14

Johanna,

I hope YOU are right!

xoxoxo

Pat"

I think Pat Brown is spot on, as usual

frencheuropean wrote:http://patbrownprofiling.blogspot.fr/

Friday, May 23, 2014



"Find the Body and Prove They Did it."

No Body Here, Scotland Yard

I have read some pretty good arguments from people who think Scotland Yard is gearing up for a big surprise ending in which they (and the PJ) bring down the McCanns. Extradition to Portugal is supported by the British government and the McCanns are found guilty in a court of Portuguese law. The case against Dr. Amaral is dropped, Pat Brown's book, Profile of the Disappearance of Madeleine McCann is returned to the market by Amazon, Gonçalo and I team up for our English language book on the case (we have already had this in the works with our agents but because of the lawsuit issue right now, no US publishers will touch it), and all who believed the McCanns were guilty of the death and disappearance of their daughter will be vindicated of being vicious trolls.

If you all don't think I would like to be wrong about my thoughts that Scotland Yard is going to whitewash this case, you are seriously wrong. I want to be wrong; I will be ecstatic to be wrong. I would rather be surprised by a police department doing some really new crazy style of investigation than be wrong about my profiling, believe you me, and, I want to see justice more than I want to be right about anything.

I have already written a bunch about why I think this Scotland Yard investigation stinks, but let me go further into why, even if it were well-meaning, it makes not a damn bit of sense.

A good many investigations are dropped, not because the police don't know who did it but because the chances of a successful prosecution are slim to none. And that is what we have here. Let's look at the issues:


1) It doesn't matter that the police ran down every possible child abductor in the area and came up empty-handed. Just because they can't figure out who "abducted" Maddie, doesn't have a thing to do with proving the McCanns were involved in her death and disappearance.




2) Not being able to prove there was an abduction is not the same as proving there wasn't one. Just because there was no evidence left at the scene that proves a stranger was in the flat, doesn't mean one wasn't one there. Even if Kate's story about the an open window and whooshing curtains is suspicious and can be used as supporting evidence that the McCanns were involved in covering up a crime if other solid evidence existed, alone it cannot be used to prove they staged a crime scene.




3) The cadaver dog evidence is not admissable in court. It is great for probable cause for further investigation and it is great as evidence of where to search for a body (since a car was used, the body would be outside of, not in PDL) but it is not proof in a court of law that Maddie died in the apartment and was disposed of by the McCanns.




4) That stories changed and were conflicting and the behavior of the Tapas 9 bizarre and concerning is but more information for future investigation, but alone is not proof of homicide (intentional or not) nor of body removal.




5) There is some DNA but it has been so questioned by "experts" that a defense attorney will shred this in court.




6) No confession. Unless one or both of the McCanns confess.




7) No credible confession from any of the Tapas 7, especially Jane Tanner, since now Scotland Yard has publicly verified her sighting, so she couldn't have been lying for the McCanns (not only that, but if Scotland Yard can't produce Tannerman, the defense would wreak havoc with that lie of law enforcement). Unless they know exactly where the body can be dug up (and there is no way I believe if Gerry McCann carried Maddie's body off, anyone knows where she is, except possibly Kate), there is no way to prove what they say is true. More than one of  the Tapas 7 would have to testify in court in order for a defense lawyer not to be able to knock the claims down. And how are they going to get the Tapas 7 to Portugal except to charge them with a crime as well and have an arrest warrant issued for England to comply with is problematic (why the Tapas 7 would even talk at this point is also quite questionable).




8) Proof that Maddie was overmedicated cannot be proven without a body; that she fell and died of a concussion cannot be proven without a body; that the McCanns moved her and buried her cannot be proven without a body. This is a huge hill for any prosecution to climb.




9) No body, no case. Really, no body, no case.




10) With all the screw-ups, interventions, media, etc., the defense lawyer would have a field day tearing apart the case.




So, prosecution is extremely unlikely to occur unless Maddie's body is found and found with evidence that links back to the McCanns or the body is found in a place that links to the McCanns (like where I want them to search at Monte do Jose Mestre, the desolate area just west of Praia da Luz where Gerry's phone pinged after he rented the hire car). Unless Scotland Yard is really looking in the right places (and not in the middle of Praia da Luz), then this case is unlikely to have a body to go to court with.

Let's go back to the beginning. The McCanns petitioned Scotland Yard to work on the case, something they would be extraordinarily unlikely to do if they really thought Scotland Yard was going to focus on the evidence. Only if they got wind through Clarence that Scotland Yard was planning a clever partnership with Portugal to bring the McCanns down and went ahead and pretended they wanted the an investigation because this would make them look innocent ...whew...yeah, it have to be something like this for the investigation to be other than a planned whitewash (unless they were truly innocent as the pro-McCanners would point out and will point out if Scotland Yard ends this case without naming the McCanns at least suspects).

Why would Scotland Yard, barring a whitewash for reasons none of us can seem to figure out, want to waste their time with a likely unwinnable case that won't even be prosecuted on home turf? Why would they spend millions and millions of pounds on this one case which has two neglectful parents and happened in another country? If Scotland Yard never got involved, the case would simply dwindle away as do all unsolved missing person cases and, in this case, it is even easier for the police to just let it fade because Portugal can be blamed and the UK police don't have to worry about the case affecting them. For that matter, they could have just spent a small amount of money sending a little team over to come up with limited results as happens all the time in cold cases.

Furthermore, it would be hugely embarrassing for Britain to admit the Portuguese were right and they were wrong, that their politicians and media broke their necks to support such a criminal couple and that due to this, they almost let them walk and they allowed them to bilk the public out of millions of pounds with their fraudulent fund. Would the powers that be in the UK really want to get their necks chopped off? I doubt it.

All of this is why I find it hard to believe Scotland Yard is planning a big coup. I think they are just following a prescribed plan which makes it looks like they tried real hard: they read all the files, did months of analysis, went to the public for tips, fought with the PJ for cooperation, found a number of reasonable suspects, recognized the child could have died at the time or sometime after the crime was committed, that she could have been buried by the perp, that they tried to find her, and now that they have done everything an investigating agency can do, especially one having to work in another's jurisdiction, and they can give the McCanns at least the most probable answer. The McCanns will thank Scotland Yard profusely for trying to find Madeleine, for finding out what likely happened to Madeleine, and for putting all those ludicrous rumors about their involvement to rest (regardless of the truth of that).

Time will prove whether Scotland Yard is on the up and up or not. Again, I really hope I am going to have the biggest surprise of my profiling life, but I am preparing for what I expect will be a major disappointment.

PS. Someone just tweeted that maybe the McCanns could be prosecuted in the UK under British law. I think that is a fine idea but they still have the problem of trying to prosecute them for a crime they can't prove as of yet. When I wrote my book, I carefully avoided libel issues (admittedly, I still got Carter-Rucked) by stating that there was as of yet no proof a homicide had occurred and no proof that the McCanns were to blame and no proof that Maddie's body was removed and hidden by the McCanns. All I said was the evidence pointed toward the McCanns making them the reasonable suspects. If I were a prosecutor, I wouldn't take the case to court unless I had a confession or a body or both.

Criminal Profiler Pat Brown

May 23, 2014

Hi frencheuropean

Thank you for once again posting another of Pat Brown's excellent articles.

It would be lovely to think that Madeleine was alive and some day she would know, how so many people were fighting for justice for her. However if it isn't the case that Madeleine is alive, I hope that when Sean and Amelie, learn the facts of the case, they also learn that their big sister, had many many people, who wanted justice for her and they take comfort from that fact.

Justice that has so far been denied for Madeleine, thanks to certain people within the Portuguese and British Governments, stopping the PJ from doing what they knew was right. These people, along with others, who have been paid handsomely and are still being paid handsomely, for doing nothing to bring the perpetrators of Madeleine's disappearance to justice, should all hang their heads in shame.

Pat Brown may not know, but Amaral should, if they are considering a joint venture.

1. The Portugese Prosecutor asked a Judge if there was enough evidence to go to Court and the Judge replied "show me the body".

2. The FSS said in their Report that although the twins DNA found in the car could be matched to the Parents , there was no match between Madeleine and her Parents.

3. I think the Portugese made a big mistake not asking for a recon while the McCanns were still in Portugal and were too overwhelmed by the Press and publicity of this case .

4,  If the Tapas Group could not be bothered to help the Police by attending a recon and the McCanns commissioned a Spanish Detective Agency to look for madeliene , knowing it was against Portugese regulations annd Kate refused to answer questions the Portugese should have closed the case there and then. In this respect, yes the Portugese were too soft.

Unfortunately/sadly/ I agree with Pat's view. Without Madeleine's little body, in this particular case, no prosecutor would get the conviction I feel would be justified. He/she would look at all the "evidence" pointing to the McCanns as highly suspicious but just that, not enough to get a conviction. It doesn't change my mind however that they should be tried for "something" (and not being a lawyer, I can't define exactly what) and all the highly suspicious evidence exposed in a court of law - resulting with or without a guilty verdict. I guess what it boils down to for me is that the McCanns are exposed as the heartless/evil couple they are who continue to promote themselves as they continue to dishonour Madeleine by doing so.

well I don't know that I agree with Pat Brown, there have been plenty of cases in the UK and the States and Portugal when a body has not been found and criminal investigations have proceeded to trial and some found guilty. So not entirely convinced by her argument.

I agree, tanszi, all it would really take is 9 policemen and place them each in a room with one of the tapas, continue questioning until all of the inconsistencies had been cross-checked. From reading some of the witness statements it probably wouldn't take too long to get the truth. Better odds than taking GM's challenge to find a body and whatever evidence remains.

Didnt gerry  mccann  hear  matt oldfield crying whilst  being asked  questions in the  portimao  police  station?

Where did you read that, kitti? I haven't heard that before.

ive heard that Gerry said that, so kitti and I must have read the same article, statement or post.

Molly wrote:I agree, tanszi, all it would really take is 9 policemen and place them each in a room with one of the tapas, continue questioning until all of the inconsistencies had been cross-checked. From reading some of the witness statements it probably wouldn't take too long to get the truth. Better odds than taking GM's challenge to find a body and whatever evidence remains.

I think if that ever happened, I'm not sure but they may be entitled to have a lawyer present. They may even be advised to go no comment.

Actually it was Alan Pike who asked for Kate's interview to be postponed for a few days.  She had sat in the waiting room for 8 hours waiting to be interviewed.  She was then told to go home and come back the next day.  Finally when Gerry returned he told her of what had happened during Mat Oldfield's interview.


--- Quote ---I sat in the waiting area for eight hours before I was told that it was now too late for me to be interviewed and I should go home and come back the next day. Gerry was there for thirteen hours. When he finally returned to the apartment he related how Matt had been almost hysterical during his interview. Gerry had heard him shouting and crying. Apparently, it had been put to Matt that he’d handed Madeleine out through the window to a third party. It was like something out of Life on Mars. Alan Pike was concerned about my wellbeing and asked for my rescheduled interview to be postponed for a few days. The PJ couldn’t have considered it all that important: it was 6 September before I was interviewed again.

kitti wrote:Actually it was Alan Pike who asked for Kate's interview to be postponed for a few days.  She had sat in the waiting room for 8 hours waiting to be interviewed.  She was then told to go home and come back the next day.  Finally when Gerry returned he told her of what had happened during Mat Oldfield's interview.


--- Quote ---I sat in the waiting area for eight hours before I was told that it was now too late for me to be interviewed and I should go home and come back the next day. Gerry was there for thirteen hours. When he finally returned to the apartment he related how Matt had been almost hysterical during his interview. Gerry had heard him shouting and crying. Apparently, it had been put to Matt that he’d handed Madeleine out through the window to a third party. It was like something out of Life on Mars. Alan Pike was concerned about my wellbeing and asked for my rescheduled interview to be postponed for a few days. The PJ couldn’t have considered it all that important: it was 6 September before I was interviewed again.

My memory is rusty indeed. Can you please remind who is Alan Pike?

Kate mccanns psychologist...

Witness Statement of Alan Robert PIKE
Occupation: Crisis Counsellor  2008.05.07
This testimony (constituted by two pages and signed by me) is the truth and in accordance with my understanding. I give this testimony with the knowledge that, knowingly making false statements may subject me to legal action.


Date: 07 of May 2008
Signature: __________________________________________

I am the above reference person and live at the physical address already provided the police. I work as a crisis counsellor. DC Holliday and DC Ferguson of the Leicestershire police questioned me on behalf of the Portuguese police relative
To my involvement with Gerald and Kate McCann whose daughter disappeared from Praia da Luz in Portugal in May of 2007.

I have been a crisis counsellor for about 3 and a half years, and work for a private agency titled 'The Centre for Crisis Psychology' (or CCP). Before this job, I worked as a social worker for about 11 years. CCP has agreements with other agencies who can request our services, like for example, the placement to a holiday to offer assistance to someone who has suffered a traumatic event. There are many different aspects in my profession, but this one seems to me the most relevant to my testimony.

I would say that my experience with CCP was required in order to help people abroad who find themselves confronted with tragic situations, for a total of between 30 and 60 times. I got to know Gerald McCann and Kate Healy on Saturday, May 5, 2007. I would describe my relationship with them in totally clinical terms. I provided them counselling help with regards to their emotional state provoked by the fact that they were separated from their daughter Madeleine. I spoke with Gerry and Kate very early in the morning on the 5th of May, 2007. Our services were requested by the Mark Warner agency. I travelled specifically to speak to them in person, and with the family and agency functionaries. Kate and Gerry had been awake for two nights when I got to know them.

I do not remember specifically what they said about Madeleine's disappearance and I did not ask them about the circumstances in which the disappearance occurred. My purpose at the time was their emotional state. My role was not to question them regarding the disappearance or to investigate. Upon reflection however, they always referred to their daughter's disappearance as an 'abduction.'

I would say that Kate e o Gerry were exhausted, anguished, confused, and angry for a few reasons, but namely with the lack of information. They were insecure as to how to help and with the lack of help and assistance. Their comportment did not surprise me. It was a comportment which I have witnessed a lot at times when a trauma is suffered. In my opinion, their reaction relative to the disappearance of Madeleine, as already stated above, was completely within the bounds of what one would expect of parents whose daughter was taken from them against their will.

I was not there to judge the reaction of Kate or Gerry, but I would say that their behaviour was consistent, according to my knowledge of that which they were experiencing. I helped them deal with the situation and offered them face to face counselling on many occasions, since the day I met with them in Portugal and in Leicester. They and the rest of the family have access to a 24-hour telephone help line. At CCP we use a psychological method in each of clinical interventions that allows the patient to relive their traumatic experience, discuss his or her physical and emotional reactions and after provide counselling and support that helps them deal with these emotions in the short and long-term.

Since the return of Kate and Gerry to the U.K., I have worked for them privately but my relationship here has been exclusively clinical in nature.

This testimony was made by me and is the truth according to my understanding.
 

Thank you kitti.