Pat Brown- May 26, 2014-"Why I Love My Fellow Madeleine McCann Fighters For Justice"

http://patbrownprofiling.blogspot.fr/



Monday, May 26, 2014


Why I Love My Fellow Madeleine McCann Fighters For Justice


Montel and I discuss Possible McCann Involvement in the Crime



I have seen a lot of angry comments on Facebook, Twitter, and Message Boards concerning my last three posts laying out my reasons for why I think the Scotland Yard review is a whitewash, why I think Scotland Yard would be unlikely to spend millions and years on a probably unwinnable case for anything other than political purposes, and why I think all of us have little power in comparison to the McCanns and whatever politics lies behind this bizarre missing person's case. Some people are so angry they have come at me with ad hominem attacks or statements that they will never read a thing I write ever again. I think these volatile responses (and I am not talking about well-reasoned arguments to my analyses which I think are a good thing as it gives all of us more to think about and I, myself, learn a lot from opposing opinions) are an angry backlash that comes from fear - fear that I am right. And I get it. If I am right, it sucks.

For seven years, people interested in justice have studied every aspect of this case and spent way more time in analysis than Scotland Yard will ever put in. Some people have built and maintained websites and Facebook pages full of information about the case, sites I am thankful for and have used myself. I won't name them all here, but I appreciate each and every one of them, even those that might have issues with my take on things; they still spread the word.

So, why then my last three posts and my adamant belief in a whitewash? Why my strong belief that this case will never be prosecuted? Why my assertion that in spite of everyone's efforts, we have so little power to affect a good outcome? Why don't I just STFU?

All I can say is experience. I have seen the inside of police cases, the inside of politics in police cases, and the inside of media. I know what I know and I have always called things as I see them. People expect that of me and it would not be right for me to suddenly go silent and hide what I think is true because the truth (at least what I believe is the truth) is not that palatable. I share my experience and analyses of the situation because many people have no idea how police investigations work and how media really works; they make assumptions from outside of these worlds. I have been in them and this is why I bring you my take. I have seen a lot of stuff and while I may be wrong about my belief as to how this case will turn out, what I say I base on inside knowledge of how these things have worked in the past.

My other reason for not staying silent about what I think is going to be a stomach-turning outcome of the Scotland Yard review is to help folks keep a more rational head about what might be coming down the pike, to recognize that the McCanns being arrested is something that should be a happy surprise, not an expectation, a major triumph that would come from actually having enough evidence to proceed to prosecution and having a political turnabout that would allow this to happen. What I fear for all those who have put so much time and energy into following this case and championing justice is that they are going to be crushed if this cases is closed with a patsy abductor or a Scotland Yard "expert" conclusion that the Maddie was abducted by an unknown predator and her body too well hidden or disposed of to ever be found. Personally, I would rather be on the cautious side and not get my hopes up too high when the odds are against a pleasing ending.

I know the experience of being blindsided by the illegitimate closing of cases I have worked on with police. It isn't just one time that I turned in my profile and thought the case would eventually move forward properly to prosecution or at least a proper investigation, all to have nothing good happen at all. I have had detectives tell me that my profile was awesome (with each determination supported by convincing evidence) and that they now believed in my conclusions on the case. I would leave, spirits soaring; I knew justice would now take its proper course. And then nothing would happen and the case shelved or the agency would go public with America's Most Wanted or the local press and continue down the same erroneous road they were on before I worked with them. Why? Because it was too late to get a solid prosecution (a legitimate reason why they can't do anything with the case and why I gave up working cold cases) or they are embarrassed they had been after the wrong person for so long (and aren't going to admit it) or the new focus is a problem politically. I have learned the hard way that justice is often not what all parties are working for. Politics, egos, and incompetence play a big part in what actually happens with police cases. We don't realize this because a good portion of cases are easy to solve and prosecute because the suspect is obvious; the police just need to do a solid job protecting the scene, evidence, and rights. The difficult cases are fewer and most don't get that much media attention. The odd ones that make headlines are special cases and often are a nightmare for police departments and are "put to rest" in whatever way works best. Reality bites and it is actually far worse than many of you think it is. There are certainly ethical and highly skilled detectives out there; I have worked with some that I think are absolutely the best (I am working with some now to forward police training in criminal profiling) and these guys solve cases and sometimes very difficult ones. But then there are the other detectives and other cases; not all goes perfectly. Real life is not Hollywood.

Regardless of how the McCann case turns out and regardless of how some folks feel about me, I still appreciate the hard work and heart all of you have put into keeping the truth about this case in the public eye. Even if I feel that none of us really have the power to change the course of this "investigation," I do think we all have the power to show others and the future generations that people care and that there are human beings out there who believe in truth and justice and will put themselves on the line to stand up for it.

Criminal Profiler Pat Brown

May 26, 2014

"merci" again to "frencheuropean" for posting Pat's analysis.

Hope is a marvellous attitude but at some point the power of reasoning takes over and I respect Pat's opinion. Like her, I hope she is wrong in saying this will end in a whitewash of the McCanns. For myself, I still hope that Madeleine's little body will be found wrapped in her pink blanket inside Gerry's blue sportsbag, buried in the vicinity of the location Pat suspects based on the "pings" from Gerry's phone which came after he rented the car used to transport her body.

Sadly I think she's got it spot on.

"What I fear for all those who have put so much time and energy into following this case and championing justice is that they are going to be crushed if this case is closed with a patsy abductor or a Scotland Yard "expert" conclusion that the Maddie was abducted by an unknown predator and her body too well hidden or disposed of to ever be found."
 
I think that SY would look like laughing stocks to come up with a conclusion like this without any evidence. Though I am prepared to accept an usatisfactory outcome, I think it would be nearly impossible for SY to come to any conclusion on this case without evidence, and certainly could not claim that an abduction occurred without knowing whom the abductor was.
 
Unless SY solves this case and finds the abductor, they are in no position to state their findings. And if they do, I would expect the Portuguese to counteract those findings with their own findings based on the evidence. I think the reason the "review" has taken so long is because SY has found it nearly impossible to implicate a patsy or claim abduction by an unknown predator with zero evidence pointing in this direction.
 
It was SY's remit to only look at the abduction hypothesis, so they haven't even considered any other possibilities. Any conclusion coming from them would be pointless, as it would not have ruled out the other alternatives. The Portuguese investigation remains the only balanced investigation on this case to date, thus in absence of solving the case, the only credible conclusions could be from the Portuguese investigation.

I still remain confident that there won't be a whitewash, and that is from someone well known for their pessimism! IMO Maddie's disappearance can't be blamed on an unfortunate dead person, no matter what their previous crimes were, as you still need proof. Look what happened when they tried to pin it on tractorman. Putting forward ludicrous suspects is one thing, but saying "this person did it" is completely different. The only other alternative is to say that they have no idea what happened. How can they spend seven+ years and millions of pounds of public money and say that, without even asking the people there at the time to explain their inconsistent stories? They couldn't IMO. I am puzzled as to how SY are going to get out of this.

Two recent (within this half hour) from Pat Brown:

(1) "The biggest reason I hope I am wrong about SY is the vindication of Goncalo Amaral. He is a hero & deserves to enjoy his live."

(2) " I fear the end of the SY review will coincide with the end of Amaral's court case: SY exonerating the McCanns will crush Amaral."

Sorry, that should read "recent TWEETS"

I can't see the Portuguese Judge giving two hoots about SY's conclusions in this case.
She will make her own mind up from the evidence that was presented to her in court and I'm sure he will be exonerated

wjk wrote:I can't see the Portuguese Judge giving two hoots about SY's conclusions in this case.
She will make her own mind up from the evidence that was presented to her in court and I'm sure he will be exonerated

 
Agreed. I am fairly confident about this too. The SY investigation has no bearing on the McCann vs. Amaral case.
 
The fact that SY is even considering that Madeleine died in the apartment is acknowledging Amaral's conclusions.

jinvta wrote:

wjk wrote:I can't see the Portuguese Judge giving two hoots about SY's conclusions in this case.
She will make her own mind up from the evidence that was presented to her in court and I'm sure he will be exonerated

 
Agreed. I am fairly confident about this too. The SY investigation has no bearing on the McCann vs. Amaral case.
 
The fact that SY is even considering that Madeleine died in the apartment is acknowledging Amaral's conclusions.

Yep and the delay was due to GA awaiting info on MM's ward of court status to be sent to the Judge, which it now has, so SY can conclude their investigation anytime they want, it won't effect the Court Case imo.