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Post  Panda Sat 12 May - 11:23



Greek President to Tackle Post-Vote Political Stalemate

By Maria Petrakis, Natalie Weeks and Marcus Bensasson - May 11, 2012 10:18 PM GMT+0100
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..
Greek President Karolos Papoulias will today take on the task of trying to persuade political leaders to form a government and avert a new election amid mounting concern the country may leave the euro area.

Evangelos Venizelos, the socialist Pasok leader, will return the third, and final, mandate to form a government to Papoulias at a meeting in Athens today, after Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the biggest anti-bailout party, Syriza, turned down an appeal to join a unity government.









Greek President Karolos Papoulias, right, with Greek leader of the Coalition of the Radical Left party (Syriza) Alexis Tsipras to formally give him the mandate to form a coalition government in Athens on May 8, 2012. PHotographer: Kostas Tsironis/Pool/AFP/Getty Images





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May 11 (Bloomberg) -- Andrew Lilico, director and principal of Europe Economics, talks about Greece's political turmoil and euro-zone membership. He speaks with Guy Johnson on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse." (Source: Bloomberg)
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Tsipras’s refusal to participate in a government that would group two pro-bailout parties with his own and the smaller Democratic Left party dims hopes of avoiding another round at the ballot box, which polls show may catapult Syriza into first place. The onus is now on Papoulias to try to broker a government of national unity.

“I want to underline that the refusal of this proposal isn’t coming from Syriza, but from the Greek people themselves,” Tsipras said in comments televised live on state- run NET TV yesterday. “The people have already rejected the bailout so no government has the right to implement it.”

Greece’s Impasse

Greece’s political impasse since the inconclusive May 6 election has raised the possibility another vote will have to be held as early as next month, threatening the implementation of austerity pledges. The standoff has reignited European concerns over Greece’s ability to hold to terms of its two bailouts negotiated since May 2010 and sparked concerns about the country possibly leaving the euro.

The unity government proposal by Democratic Left leader Fotis Kouvelis had received backing from Venizelos and New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras, underpinned by the two main principles of keeping the country in the euro region and renegotiating bailout conditions to boost growth.

“If there are elections, which I repeat there shouldn’t be, the dilemma for voters then will be whether we stay in Europe and the euro,” Samaras said yesterday in comments televised live on NET TV.

Kouvelis, whose party holds 19 seats in the 300-seat parliament, said the unity government would last until 2014 and have a specific agenda to negotiate a gradual “disengagement” from bailout austerity measures. He said that a condition for Democratic Left joining the government was the participation of Syriza.

‘One-Way Street’

“Unfortunately, I see a one-way street to elections,” Kouvelis said in an interview on NET yesterday after Tsipras rejected the proposal.

New Democracy and Pasok, the two parties that supported the international rescue in an interim government earlier this year, are two deputies short of the 151 seats needed for a majority in the 300-seat chamber. Syriza came second with 52 seats, and Pasok placed third with 41 seats. Five parties opposed to bailout policies are now in parliament.

Tsipras failed to reach a deal with other leaders after giving them an ultimatum to renounce support for the EU-led rescue in order to enter the government. Samaras, whose party finished first, gave up trying to forge a coalition after six hours of talks on May 7.

Austerity Measures

Tsipras demanded that Samaras and Venizelos, the former finance minister, send a letter to the EU revoking their written pledges to implement austerity measures. Both rejected the request, with Samaras saying he was being asked “to put my signature to the destruction of Greece.”

Kouvelis said Syriza’s insistence on canceling the bailout agreement “constitutes a break with the euro.”

The risk of Greece leaving the euro by the end of 2013 has risen to as high as 75 percent, Citigroup Inc. (C) said on May 7. More than half of investors predict a nation will exit this year as Greece’s election impasse threatens to push the debt crisis to new depths, according to the Bloomberg Global Poll.

The euro weakened for a second week, touching a three-month low versus the dollar. The ASE general index fell 4.5 percent yesterday to 611.96 in Athens, losing 11 percent in the past week.

Klaus Regling, chief executive officer of the European Financial Stability Facility, said an exit would be the costliest option.

‘Most Expensive’

The “worst-case scenario” of Greece leaving the euro “would be the most expensive solution for all parties involved,” Regling told the Vienna-based Die Presse newspaper. “That’s why the governments of the euro area are doing everything for Greece to stay.”

Greece will run out of cash by early July if partners decided to withhold their next aid payment. The EFSF on May 9 confirmed that a 5.2 billion-euro tranche will be released by the end of June, with 4.2 billion euros disbursed May 10. The remaining 1 billion euros will be released depending on Greece’s financing needs.

Under the terms of the bailout a new government will need to detail savings of 11 billion euros next month.

Syriza would boost its showing if elections were held again, coming in first, though short of an outright majority, according to a Marc poll released on May 10.

Syriza would garner 23.8 percent support, compared with its May 6 election result of 16.8 percent, while both New Democracy and Pasok would lose support, according to the survey of 1,021 Greeks. Those findings were confirmed by another poll by Metron Analysis, which gave Syriza 20.2 percent, state-run Athens News Agency said.

Unpredictable Outcome

Fitch Ratings said in a report yesterday that the outcome of another election would be “unpredictable” and “make it doubtful that Greece could comply with the EU-IMF’s end-June deadline to propose further medium-term austerity measures.”

While Greece would probably be granted an extension to that deadline, any attempt to significantly renegotiate its program would be unacceptable to the so-called troika of the European Commission, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank, Fitch said.

Under Greece’s election system, the president gives each of the three top vote-winning parties a mandate to form a government that can last for as many as three days. If the process still fails to yield a coalition, the president must try to broker a government of national unity, the constitution says. If that fails, new elections are held.

-- With assistance from Tom Stoukas, Antonis Galanopoulos and Eleni Chrepa in Athens, Jana Randow, Zoe Schneeweiss and Boris Groendahl in Vienna. Editors: Kevin Costelloe, Paul Badertscher

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Post  Panda Sat 12 May - 14:12

1:50pm UK, Saturday May 12, 2012

Greece is facing another round of elections on June 17 after the country's main parties repeatedly failed to form a coalition government, Sky sources have said.
The president will hold last-ditch talks tomorrow in a bid to form an emergency government following a third failed attempt at joint leadership.

But it now seems brinkmanship will remain in the way of a successful coalition.

The country has been under pressure to implement huge budget cuts in order to meet conditions necessary to receive its IMF-EU bailout and stay part of the eurozone.

Legislative elections last Sunday saw voters punish the mainstream parties amid intense EU pressure over Greek finances.



Greek president Karolos Papoulias

And on Friday Socialist Pasok leader Evangelos Venizelos became the latest to fail to form a government after the radical leftist party Syriza refused to join a pro-austerity coalition.

Mr Venizelos was the third party leader who had tried and failed to cobble together a government after the inconclusive elections.

The Greek president Karolos Papoulias had been expected to urge party leaders to form a government of national salvation. They had until Thursday to come to an agreement before new elections would be called.

Mr Venizelos had been hoping to win the support of Syriza, a party deeply opposed to the terms of the 240 billion euro EU-IMF bailout and which surged to second place in Sunday's vote.

Another possible ally, the small Democratic Left party, had earlier said it would not join a government made up of only Pasok and the conservative New Democracy party that did not include Syriza.



Previously, both Syriza and the New Democracy party failed in their own attempts to assemble a coalition government.

German leaders warned on Friday that Athens could expect no more money without reforms and also suggested that the eurozone would cope if the cash-strapped country left the 17-member currency union.

Greece has already committed to finding in June another 11.5 billion euros in savings over the next two years. It also needs to redeem 436 million euros in maturing debt on May 15.

Brussels has revised downwards its economic forecasts for the country, which is at the epicentre of the eurozone debt crisis.

:: Read more on our dedicated eurozone crisis page

The European Commission said the economy is expected to contract by 4.7% this year and see zero growth next year.

Fitch credit rating agency warned that the emergence of a Greek government "unwilling or unable to abide by the terms of the current EU-IMF programme would increase the risk of Greece leaving the eurozone".

"If they are required, the re-run elections will therefore be a critical event for both Greece and for the eurozone," it said in a note.


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Post  Panda Sat 12 May - 17:20

Eurozone

Greek threat raises its head once more


11 May 2012
El País Madrid Comment64


Bojesen


The spectre of a Greek exit from the Eurozone has once again been raised by the political crisis in Athens: a scenario that is all the more dangerous for Spain, which is now more vulnerable, and one whose consequences would be geo-political as well as economic.

José Ignacio Torreblanca

Turning the tables on the decades in which it was largely ignored, the blaze of attention on Europe is set to continue. Only a few days after the faint glimmer of hope accorded by the François Hollande’s victory in France, we are once again forced to contend with two major problems underpinning the crisis.

On the one hand, we have fragile political systems, characterised by a relentless drive – as we have seen in Greece – to impose austerity and to force citizens to assume all the responsibility for the crisis, which are embarked on a course towards self-destruction. On the other, as is evident in the Spanish situation, we have to contend with the fragility of certain branches of the financial system, which has resulted from a decade of excessive liquidity, poor management and even more inept supervision.

A chain reaction

Having remarked on these two major weaknesses, and the manner in which they exacerbate each other, it is clear that the current situation will be short-lived. In Greece, the prospect of a renegotiation of the bailout implies the possibility of the country’s exit from the Eurozone. In Spain, if the reforms and budget cuts, which currently constitute the sole strategy of the government, are to deliver results, these measures will have to be implemented in a context of financial stability and external confidence.

To keep Greece in the Eurozone, and to avoid a chain reaction prompted by an exit from the euro which would severely affect Spain, the governments of the Eurozone will have to implement radical measures to show the markets that Greece has a future in the Eurozone, or at least demonstrate that its departure would be an isolated incident. However, given that European leaders have yet to establish the necessary firewalls, the markets are unlikely to be convinced by promises. At this pessimistic and worrying juncture, many in European institutions are increasingly convinced that neither Greece or Germany can make any further efforts: the Greeks are simply too weary of austerity while the Germans have been worn out by solidarity.

It is time to take a deep breath and a step back: a Greek exit from the Eurozone would be a large scale disaster both for the Greeks and other countries in the single currency. Living conditions for the Greek population would certainly deteriorate, while the country’s extremist parties would become even more powerful. And whereas Greece would officially remain a member of the European Union, an exit would have an impact on all of the policies that relate to the EU. In particular with regard to the single market, giving up the euro would be akin to leaving the EU.

The risk of de-Europeanisation

There would also be geopolitical consequences: at at time when the EU was hoping to absorb the historically troubled Balkan peninsula into its western heartland – Croatia is set to join the EU in 2013 – a Greek exit from the Eurozone would open a new front for disorder and failed statehood. At the same time, the Greek population would consider the European project to be a failure, and on that basis seek to establish a greater distance from Europe. The consequent de-Europeanisation of Greece would likely favour anti-western voices and political forces which have always been stronger in the country than they have been in such countries as Spain, Italy and Portugal – and this development could have major repercussions in the field of security, notably because it would undermine NATO and at the same time pave the way for an upsurge in nationalism and increased tension with Turkey and Macedonia.

For the rest of Europe, the circumstances arising from a Greek exit would certainly be distressing. On close inspection, the fashionable euphemism of a “controlled exit” is also the expression of a cynical hope that only Greeks would be affected. However, the fact is that the move would come at a time when Portugal, Italy and Spain are in an extremely vulnerable situation: their economies have already been ravaged by budget cuts, while accompanying reforms have yet to bear fruit, and measures to relaunch growth have yet to feature on the agenda. In other words, it is hard to imagine a worse moment for a Greek exit from the euro, and in particular with regard to its potential for contagion.

The European Commission has yet to exhaust all of its resources, and it is preparing to wheel out a battery of measures to stimulate the minimum of growth necessary to sustain hope: in particular measures relating to the use of structural funds, ECB loans and a degree of flexibility in deficit reduction targets. But in spite of the optimism prompted by Hollande’s presidential victory, which has completely transformed the atmosphere in Brussels, Greece’s situation is still fraught with the terrible doubt that the French socialist has arrived too late to make any difference.


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Post  Panda Sun 13 May - 6:21

Youth unemployment in Spain stands at 50%, the highest of the 17 countries in the Eurozone

Tens of thousands of people have protested in a number of Spanish cities to mark the first anniversary of the "Indignants" movement.

In central Madrid, many protesters occupying Puerta del Sol square ignored a midnight deadline to disperse.

However, by 05:00 on Sunday (03:00 GMT) police had mainly evicted them.

The movement was formed out of anger at the impact of Spain's deepest economic crisis in decades. Unemployment hit a record high in April.

The centre-right government has recently announced fresh austerity measures.

The turnout in Madrid was huge and would certainly have met organisers' expectations, says Guy Hedgecoe, reporting for the BBC from Madrid.

Spanish authorities had said they wanted the protesters to disperse by midnight local time (22:00 GMT) but many ignored the time limit.

Continue reading the main story
At the scene
Guy Hedgecoe

Madrid

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
There was a festive atmosphere around Madrid as protesters marched from different neighbourhoods into the centre of the city. They were mainly young people but pensioners and families also took part, converging in Puerta del Sol, Madrid's best known square.

There was singing and chanting and, on a hot spring day, lots of playful costumes. But what they are protesting against is very serious. "Los indignados", or the "outraged", feel the economic crisis has been woefully mismanaged. In the past they have been criticised for failing to offer concrete proposals. But they believe Spain's current economic woes give them renewed momentum.

Unemployment is more than 24%, the economy has fallen back into recession and this week the government nationalised the country's fourth largest bank. "Los indignados" are deeply opposed to the conservative government's austerity programme, but they are also going to spend the coming days debating how to make Spain's economic and political leaders more accountable.

In pictures: Indignants protest

Police vans eventually moved in and appeared to have cleared protesters from the square. The atmosphere in other parts of the city centre was reported to be tense on Sunday morning but there were no reports of violence.

"Today's goal is to recover the public spaces," protester Sofia Ruiz earlier told Reuters.

"It is also a way to celebrate that we have been existing for one year and that we are going to be there until the system changes or we are listened to and they take into account our claims," she added.

Last year the Indignants established a protest camp in Puerta del Sol, but the authorities had vowed they would prevent any protesters from staying overnight in the square.

There were some 2,000 riot police on duty.

At least 45,000 people also took to the streets in Barcelona, police said, although organisers put the attendance in the hundreds of thousands.

One protester there, Jose Helmandez, told the BBC he was a genetics and molecular biology doctor but had been unable to find a job in his field.

"A lot of people are leaving the country to find work, even if they end up not doing something they are qualified to do," he said.

"I was living in France but returned to Spain almost two years ago, and all I can find are short-term jobs."

'Long-distance race'

Some have criticised the movement for having little impact on Spanish politics over the past year.

Authorities had said they would not allow protesters to stay in Puerta del Sol square overnight
The government of conservative Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, elected last November, has introduced budget cuts and tax rises.

Mr Rajoy has also announced deregulation of the labour market, angering Spanish unions.

"This is a long-distance race, no-one can change an entire political system in one day or one year, it takes time," Noelia Moreno, a former spokeswoman for the Indignants movement in Madrid, told AFP news agency.

Similar protests took place in other cities in Spain and across the world as part of a global day of action, some of them staged by the Occupy movement:

In London, hundreds of protesters gathered outside St Paul's Cathedral, where a protest camp was removed in February. A number of people were arrested
Smaller protests, numbering in the hundreds, have taken place in the Portuguese capital Lisbon and in Germany's financial centre, Frankfurt
Around 1,000 marchers converged in Tel Aviv to protest about the cost of living, with marches also reported in other Israeli cities
Meanwhile, in the latest attack on symbols of Italy's austerity policies, a tax office has been firebombed in the city of Livorno. No-one was hurt.
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Post  Panda Sun 13 May - 6:24

13 May 2012 Last updated at 04:57 Share this pageEmail Print Share this page

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) are facing a tough task to avoid defeat in a key state election on Sunday.

Opinion polls in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia suggest an emphatic re-election victory for the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD).

Analysts say voters look set to reject Mrs Merkel's tough line on fiscal discipline as a cure for state debt.

Recent polls in Greece, France and Italy have rejected austerity policies.

Voting in North Rhine-Westphalia ends at 16:00 GMT, with exit polls expected soon after.

Most populous state

The CDU and its national coalition partner, the Free Democrats, recently lost elections in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein. The CDU scored its lowest tally in the state for 50 years.

The BBC's Stephen Evans in Berlin says the poll in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) will test the popularity of Chancellor Merkel's CDU, as opposition to her strict austerity policies grows outside Germany.

NRW, Germany's most populous state and with a large economy, has a history of influencing national politics.

Angela Merkel has sought to portray
the
state as addicted to debt
The election was called in March after the state's minority government, run by a coalition of the SPD and Greens - narrowly failed to get a budget passed.

Despite its troubles, polls suggest that state premier and SPD candidate Hannelore Kraft - who has headed the fragile government for the past two years - will easily defeat CDU rival Norbert Roettgen, who is Mrs Merkel's environment minister.

In her campaign, Ms Kraft has emphasised strengthening indebted local communities, investing in education and boosting the state's business appeal.

Mr Roettgen, on the other hand, has accused the SPD of financial irresponsibility, holding rallies dominated by a huge inflatable "debt mountain", to emphasise the state's problems.

He provoked controversy early in the campaign by refusing to commit to being a full-time opposition leader if he lost. Such a move would cost him his job in Berlin.

Mrs Merkel said the election offered the region an opportunity to elect a government that would not take on "ever more debt".

The Pirate Party, which has grown in strength recently with its calls for transparency and internet freedom, is looking to enter its fourth state parliament.

Nationally, Sunday's election will not change the balance of power, whatever the outcome.

But opposition leaders warned it could send an important signal ahead of national
election late 2013
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Post  Panda Sun 13 May - 14:54

Madrid (CNN) -- Chanting "they don't represent us," tens of thousands in Madrid railed early Sunday against Spain's government and austerity cuts -- venting their anger on the first anniversary of the so-called May 15 protest movement.

Many ignored a government deadline to disperse by Saturday night from the central Puerta del Sol plaza, prompting police to clear the square by 5 a.m. on Sunday (11 p.m. on Saturday ET), the interior ministry said.

About 30,000 attended the Madrid protest, and 18 were detained for resisting arrest or disorderly conduct, the ministry said.

In the early hours of Sunday morning, demonstrators were a loud and vibrant presence in the square -- as a large number of police, stationed at a nearby government building and along side streets, looked on and let them be.

Throngs of like-minded demonstrators also gathered over the weekend in Barcelona and about 80 other cities around Spain.

Barcelona saw about 22,000 protesters, while Valencia had 8,000 and Seville had 2,000, authorities said. All the demonstrations were cleared by Sunday morning, the interior ministry said.

The coordinated events marked the return of the "indignados" -- or the outraged, as the protesters became known -- who led Europe's first serious and significant grassroots movement against austerity and government budget cuts.

Similar demonstrations decrying governments' attempts to get their budgets in order, sometimes by slashing public funding, later emerged elsewhere around Europe.

In Madrid this weekend, marchers from the north, south, east and west descended on Puerta del Sol plaza on Saturday evening.

For hours, demonstrators shouted, jumped, sang and waved white handkerchiefs. Their most dramatic moment, though, may have been their quietest: when they held their hands aloft, silently, in a "silent shout" before erupting in cheers.

The crowd is expected to return. The government has approved three more days of protests in Madrid, meaning similar scenes could play out into the middle of the week.

The number of demonstrators in Madrid over the weekend appeared to be slightly fewer than those who had gathered in the same spot -- in what's known as ground zero of the movement -- a year earlier.

Back then, protesters encamped in Madrid and other cities made their voices heard. The tens of thousands of people who turned out in the initial days grew to an estimated 6 million protesters over the following months, in a nation of 46 million people.

Since then, Occupy camps around the world have come and gone.

The new protests organized by the May 15 movement are different in at least one key respect: a new conservative government is now in control, having taken over in December.

Spain's economic crisis also has worsened since last year. The nation has slipped back into a recession, the unemployment rate has risen to 24% overall and more than 50% for those under age 25, and the government has enacted billions of dollars in austerity cuts, along with some tax hikes, to reduce the budget deficit.

"We are really tired of this situation," said Madrid protester Paola Alvarado, a purchasing agent. "And the new government is the same. They steal our money and give it to the banks."

Spain's austerity protests have been largely peaceful to date, with only occasional clashes between protesters and police, and some arrests in cities like Barcelona and Valencia.

And prior the latest protests, the new government -- which has vowed to maintain order and prevent a repetition of encampments in Madrid and beyond -- urged police commanders to use "common sense" as to how they dealt with the latest round of public dissent.

In recent months, Spanish trade unions, traditionally the protest leaders, have been at the forefront of demonstrations against the austerity cuts and labor market reforms, with the May 15 movement barely visible.

"Maybe the most important thing is it awakened a consciousness, beyond concrete changes, to make historic change possible," said Jon Aguirre Such, who was a movement spokesman a year ago but now spends more time on his architectural cooperative for urban planning.

"I think everyone who took part in the May 15 movement made history. They can take away from us many things, but not our memory and our dream," Aguirre said.

The original May 15 movement is credited with helping stop dozens of housing evictions. Activists pressured bank and court officials to delay or stop foreclosures on delinquent mortgages.

But Ignacio Urquiza, a sociologist who has studied the movement for the left-leaning Fundacion Alternativas, said there has been little big-picture change as to government policies and operations.

"The demonstrations didn't do more than expose -- for a brief time -- some issues. But Spain's economic crisis and political system have not changed. They are the same as last year," he said.



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Post  Panda Sun 13 May - 15:06

London (CNN) -- Jurre Hermans, the 11-year-old Dutch boy who entered the £250,000 ($400,000) Wolfson Economics Prize with a pizza-based plan for saving the eurozone, did so because he had an idea and the winnings sounded "very attractive," he told CNN.

Jurre received a €100 ($131) gift voucher and special mention when the prize shortlist was announced Tuesday for his detailed entry -- including a picture, below -- showing how debt can be exchanged for slices of pizza.

Exiting the euro: As easy as pizza?

The competition was launched in October by Simon Wolfson, the man behind British retail chain Next, to try and find ways to deal with a collapse of the euro -- the currency tying together 17 European countries. The euro has been under intense pressure since Greece was forced to take a bail-out from its eurozone peers and the International Monetary Fund almost two years ago.

Through his father Julius, Jurre told CNN he had an idea to solve the euro crisis and also thought the prize money sounded "attractive."

Jurre, the youngest entrant to the prize, proposed Greece should leave the euro, with the Greek people slotting their funds into a bank "exchange machine" and getting drachma -- the Greek currency before the country joined the euro in 2001 -- back.

As Jurre explains in his application, the bank then gives the euros to the Greek government and "all these euros together form a pancake or a pizza. Now the Greek government can start to pay back all their debts, everyone who has a debt gets a slice of the pizza."

Jurre noted the "clever part" of his idea was that the Greek people would not want to change their euros for drachma, because they know the currency would depreciate. However, if they hide their euros, Jurre said they should be slapped with severe financial penalties.

Wolfson: Why Europe needs to think about a euro collapse

Jurre wrote: "In this way I ensure that all Greeks bring their euros to a greek bank and so the greek government can pay back all the debts. I hope my idea helps you!!!!"

Julius Hermans said he was proud his son thought about the world's problems and came up with solutions.

However, Jurre told CNN he plans to be a zoo director rather than an economist, because he loves animals. He also wants the euro to continue.

A list of the Wolfson finalists and their plans can be found here. The winner will be announced on July 5.

Jurre Hermans (inset) and his idea on how to solve the euro crisisCourtesy of policyexchange.


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Post  Panda Sun 13 May - 22:08

13 May 2012 Last updated at 21:51 Share this pageEmail Print Share this page



Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives have suffered heavy losses in an election in Germany's most populous state, exit polls suggest.

Support for the Christian Democrats dropped from 35% to 26% in North Rhine-Westphalia, with the Social Democrats set to return to power with the Greens.

It is the Christian Democrats' worst result in the state.

Analysts say many voters rejected Mrs Merkel's tough line on fiscal discipline as a cure for state debt.

Voters in Greece, France and Italy also recently rejected austerity policies.

In another development, the exit polls suggested Germany's Pirate Party had won seats in North Rhine-Westphalia, making it their fourth state parliament.

The Pirate Party has grown in strength recently with its calls for transparency and internet freedom.

Nationally, Sunday's election will not change the balance of power, whatever the outcome but opposition leaders warn it may send an important signal ahead of national elections expected in late 2013.

Left out

According to two exit polls, the Social Democrats (SPD) won around 38%, the Christian Democrats (CDU) 25.5%, the Greens 12%, the Free Democrats (FDP) 8.5%, the Pirates 7.5% and the Left, 2.5%.

Continue reading the main story
Analysis
Stephan Evans

BBC News, Berlin

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The elections may worry Chancellor Merkel. The big decline of the vote for the Christian Democrats indicates strong dismay at the policies of her party. In national opinion polls, she - personally - remains popular, but her party, on the strength (or lack of it) of the vote in North Rhine-Westphalia does not.

Furthermore, much of the election was fought on public spending, with the Social Democratic Party asserting its importance, particularly for education. Its share of the vote was undiminished.

There were also signs of resentment within Germany. Some local politicians complained, for example, that swimming pools in their towns in the West of Germany were being closed for lack of money while high spending continued in the old East Germany.

Chancellor Merkel may draw hope or despair from the strong showing of the Pirate Party. With 8% of the vote, it now gets seats in a fourth regional parliament in Germany. Their rise probably threatens the Left parties more - but it also signals a disgruntlement with mainstream politics.

The FDP, the CDU's national coalition partner, performed better than expected, increasing their vote by nearly two percentage points and thereby giving the lie to speculation that they might fail to win seats.

The Left, which won 11 seats at the last election in 2010, failed to pass the 5% threshold and are out of the state parliament.

When the CDU and FDP recently lost elections in the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein, Mrs Merkel's party scored its lowest tally there for 50 years.

North Rhine-Westphalia has a history of influencing national politics.

An early election was called in March after the minority SPD-Green government narrowly failed to get a budget passed.

During the election campaign, state premier and SPD candidate Hannelore Kraft emphasised strengthening indebted local communities, investing in education and boosting the state's business appeal.

Her CDU rival, Norbert Roettgen, who is also Mrs Merkel's environment minister, accused the SPD of financial irresponsibility, and held rallies dominated by a huge inflatable "debt mountain", to emphasise the state's problems.

He provoked controversy early in the campaign by refusing to commit to being a full-time opposition leader if he lost. Such a move would cost him his job in Berlin.
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Post  Panda Mon 14 May - 6:50

13 May 2012 Last updated at 23:01 Share this pageEmail Print Share this page



Protesters are back in Puerta del Sol square in the Spanish capital, Madrid, hours after being evicted by police.

Many in the square are shouting slogans in support of 18 people detained by police when they moved in to clear the square overnight on Saturday.

Nine have now been freed, reports leading Spanish newspaper El Pais.

The square became a focal point for the movement of "indignants", which erupted in response to economic crisis and austerity policies exactly a year ago.

Tens of thousands joined marches across Spain this weekend, marking the anniversary of the "indignados" movement and protesting against the fresh austerity drive of the conservative People's Party, which was voted back into office last November.

Madrid authorities vowed not to allow a repeat of last year's month-long occupation of Puerta del Sol square.

'We won't pay!'

Police moved into the square at about 04:00 on Sunday morning (02:00 GMT) after protesters ignored a midnight deadline to disperse, making 18 arrests.

But later on Sunday the square reopened and hundreds of protesters moved back in, shouting slogans such as "We're not all here - 18 are missing" and "We won't pay for your crisis!", reports said.

Continue reading the main story

Start Quote
W
e'll get out of this [crisis] if the government doesn't tire of making reforms, and the government is not going to tire”
End Quote
Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy

TV pictures showed a line of security vehicles parked alongside the square, their blue lights flashing, but apparently calm scenes inside the square where hundreds of people were gathered.

According to El Pais, nine of the 18 arrested have now been freed but the remaining nine are due in court on Monday.

Saturday's marches across Spain launched four days of protest which will culminate on Tuesday, 15 May - dubbed 15M - the exact anniversary of the movement's birth.

Authorities in Madrid have permitted protesters to use the square for a fixed number of hours each day, and Deputy Prime Minister Soraya Saenz de Santamaria said the government would ensure those hours were respected, said AFP news agency.

Since returning to power in December, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has vowed to undertake harsh austerity measures - promising a major reform "every Friday".

He defended such policies at a political rally on Sunday, reported Reuters news agency, saying they were necessary to tackle the country's economic problems.

"We'll get out of this [crisis] if the government doesn't tire of making reforms, and the government is not going to tire," Mr Rajoy reportedly said.

But amid a relapse into recession and an unemployment rate that has soared to 24%, many protesters say such policies are not working.
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Post  Panda Mon 14 May - 7:04


Protests are mounting all over Europe and Angela Merkel , although her Party didn't do well in the Elections yesterday, is still very popular according
to some of the Germen Government and those who want a stable growth.

If Greece cannot form a Government there will be a Referendum on 17th June to see whether the population want to exit the Euro. It is thought Spain
might follow suit because they havn't a hope of meeting the 3%GDP next year or the year after. Ireland has pledged to have a referendum .

Occupy Wall street is back in the picture, demonstrating again, and I think it's time Politicians really take note of the mountainous debt the next generation will have to face .
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Post  Panda Mon 14 May - 8:53


There is a Meeting of the EC Committee later on today where the crises will be discussed. Greece will be the dominant topic and there are those
Ministers who say an amicable divorce from the Euro is possible and they will call Greece's bluff.

Spain will also be under scrutiny because the Financial situation with the Banks is cause for concern.

The EC will also consider relaxing austerity measures in view of Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Ireland facing huge problems.E98 Billion is needed to
prop up Spanish Banks.

10yr Greek Bond yield is 23.69% , since the write off of the last Greek Bonds, investors are wary of buying Greek Bonds.

Schauble says Greece can't be forced to stay in the Euro snd analysts are suggesting that Greece is playing the brinkmanship game .

Euro stocks have opened lower again and the Euro ROE is lower and European Banks are again declining led by Spain and Italy .

Spanish Banks have borrowed E263 Trillion from the ECB.
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Post  Panda Mon 14 May - 16:33



14 May 2012
NRC Handelsblad Rotterdam Comment6


Pavel Constantin


Forget the debate about austerity versus growth, the future of the single currency is being played out in the banking sector. As a result of the crisis, governments and financial institutions have become so interdependent that they have weakened each other. Excerpts.

Caroline de Gruyter

It is not possible to create growth by magic, like a rabbit out of a hat, and certainly not without having money available for investment. This is why Daniel Gros is amazed by how European politicians, with the new French president François Hollande at the forefront, keep repeating one word: growth.

For the German economist, who is part of the Brussels think-tank the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), to discuss "austerity versus growth" is a "false debate" that does not take forward the search for a solution to the euro crisis by a single step.

The real debate, he says, should be about banks, particularly those of southern Europe, which are in a much worse condition than was previously thought.

"The Greek and Spanish banks are sitting on a growing mountain of debt,” says Gros. “Only Europe can save them. Greek and Spanish governments are too weak. This is a major European problem."

"Haircuts"

Last year, after strong political pressure, European banks accepted "haircuts", that is to say a write-off of Greek government debt. Since then, these same banks are withdrawing from the southern euro zone area, before the next round of haircuts. Spain, Italy and Portugal are being abandoned on a huge scale by foreign investors. In Greece, the next phase has already begun: even the Greeks are sending their money abroad. According to Gros, this capital flight is enormous. "Four, five, six billion euros per month. Nobody can stop it."

This process goes hand in hand with another, no less frustrating one. With northern European banks pulling out, southern European banks are sinking more and more into debt. These bonds that foreign investors are ditching are just ones being bought by Southern European banks. They do so under pressure from their governments, but also because it saves them money. In exchange for this favour, governments in turn offer new loans to banks at lower interest rates.

Very favourable rates. Last winter, the European Central Bank granted very cheap loans for 1,000 billion euros, to keep exchange on the European loan market moving. Southern European banks eagerly used these loans, at a 1% interest rate for government loans that earn them 6% or more. An act of patriotism that allowed them to earn a little cash.

Although this seems to be a solution, it creates a perverse dynamic in which banks and governments become so interdependent that they fundamentally weaken one another.

"Greek banks are completely finished," adds Daniel Gros. "It seems a national problem, but that’s just an optical illusion. Because what happens if suddenly the southern banks do not (or cannot) repay their borrowing to the ECB? "Because of the euro, we are all in the same boat," explains Thierry Philipponnat, from the lobby group Finance Watch.

Indirectly, the ECB is us. All of us. Other countries in the euro zone must comes to the rescue if things go bad in southern Europe. They have to to save the European monetary union. For this reason, the ECB is under heavy pressure from Germany and the Netherlands to stop these cheap loans. The internal financial market is the foundation of the euro. Capital flight from south to north damages the fabric of the union. According to Ignazio Angeloni, an adviser to the ECB in Frankfurt: "Financial integration in Europe fell for the first time since the early '80s."

“Détricotage”

The French have a wonderful word for it; “détricotage”. Banks retreat back behind their borders and wrap themselves in a woolly jumper, while at the same time the jumper is unravelling. To strengthen their countries, they stop granting loans to a lot of other countries. Central banks are more stringent in the North than in the South.

"All of a sudden, geography plays a role," says Philipponnat. A London banker recently noted that during a Chinese delegation visit, the first question the Chinese asked was: "How can we distinguish a Greek euro banknote from a German euro banknote?"

Many say that only a European Union bank can release the banks and governments from this suffocating embrace. A union bank with a rescue fund put together by the banks themselves, would mean that governments are no longer obliged to bail out failures. This would solve the current dilemma of "too big to fail", where the big banks can get away with anything because they are sure to be rescued by the government when things go badly. If they suffer themselves, they will assess the risks differently.

European bills

The European Commission has prepared a proposal but its publication has been delayed for two years because member states do not want it. It calls for much tougher European supervision and equates to a transfer of national sovereignty, which is, for many countries, a difficult or taboo subject.

Europe is turning around. Because governments do not want a strong European system of financial regulation, the risk to the taxpayer of seeing European bills flooding in, in the form of rescue packages which devour billions, is increasing. And there remains very little money to stimulate the kind of economic growth, that French President-elect François Hollande is currently championing.

"The greatest threat to Europe’s financial stability is the fact that some euro zone countries are financed by banks that, if they go bankrupt, are themselves dependent on the governments to which they lend money, " Philipponnat explained recently at a conference organised by the ECB. "We all know that this does not work."
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Post  Panda Mon 14 May - 18:07

Corrects euro bond holdings in ninth paragraph in story that was published on May 4.)

Norway’s sovereign wealth fund sold all its Irish and Portuguese government bonds after rejecting the Greek debt swap and warned that Europe faces considerable challenges.














Norges Bank Investment Management Chief Executive Officer Yngve Slyngstad said, “Predictability is important for a long-term investor and the euro-area faces considerable structural and monetary challenges.” Source: Norges Bank via Bloomberg
.
The $610 billion Government Pension Fund Global returned 7.1 percent, or 234 billion kroner ($41 billion), as measured by a basket of currencies, in the first quarter, the Oslo-based investor said today. Its equity holdings gained 11 percent while its fixed-income investments rose 1.6 percent.

The fund, which voted against Greece’s debt swap this year because it disagreed with being subordinated to the European Central Bank, also said it reduced debt holdings in Italy and Spain amid a broader strategy to cut investments in Europe. The fund added government bonds from emerging markets such as Brazil, Mexico and India.

“Predictability is important for a long-term investor and the euro-area faces considerable structural and monetary challenges,” Yngve Slyngstad, chief executive officer of Norges Bank Investment Management, said in a statement.

Stocks jumped globally in the quarter after the European Central Bank stepped in with more than $1 trillion in three-year loans to the region’s banks. The rally was tempered toward the end after Spain announced in March it would miss a deficit target and as austerity measures dragged euro-region economies into a recession and boosted unemployment to a 15-year high.

Biggest Restructuring

Greece pushed through the biggest sovereign debt restructuring in history in the period, with private investors writing off more than 100 billion euros of debt. That decision spurred European finance ministers to approve a second bailout package for the nation of 130 billion euros.

The fund said that it held 1.3 billion kroner in Greek bonds before the debt swap. Its holdings in Italian government debt fell to 26.6 billion kroner from 33 billion kroner at the end of 2011, while Spanish debt declined to 15.6 billion kroner from 18 billion kroner.

“It is not only those five countries but in addition we are looking at the situation as a whole,” Slyngstad said in an interview. “We are concerned about the situation in the euro area,” he said. “In many countries there are macroeconomic challenges.”

Investments in euro-denominated bonds declined to 39 percent of the fund’s fixed-income holdings at the end of March from 43 percent at the end of 2011. The euro-denominated government bond holdings returned 2.9 percent in local currency in the quarter, according to the fund.

“We have sold proportionally more of government bonds in southern Europe than in other countries,” he said. “This has been a process that has been going on for two years.”

Returns Surge

Irish bonds have returned 11.55 percent so far this year, while Portuguese bonds have gained 19 percent, according to broad market indexes compiled by Bloomberg and the European Federation of Financial Analysts Societies. All euro-area bonds returned 3.9 percent, according to Bloomberg indexes.

The yield spread on Ireland’s benchmark 10-year bond over German debt narrowed two basis points 520 basis points today, while the Portuguese equivalent was little changed at 913 basis points. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. Spain’s widened one basis point to 419 basis points.

The investor, which is managed by the central bank and gets guidelines from the government, has started a strategy shift that will reduce its bond and stock holdings in Europe to capture more of global growth as it struggles to meet a 4 percent return target.

Largest Holdings

At the end of March, the fund held 60.7 percent of its assets in stocks, 39 percent in bonds and 0.3 percent in real estate. It’s mandated to hold 60 percent in stocks, 35 percent in bonds and 5 percent in real estate.

The fund’s largest stock holding at the end of the quarter was Royal Dutch Shell Plc, while its biggest bond holding was U.S. Treasury bonds, followed by the U.K. and France.

Norway’s government deposited 60 billion kroner of oil revenue into the fund in the quarter. The return beat by 0.3 percentage point the benchmark set by the Finance Ministry.

The investor lost 86 billion kroner, or 2.5 percent, last year as stock markets slumped on concern the region’s debt crisis might tip the global economy into recession.

The fund got its first capital infusion in 1996 and has been taking on more risk as it expands globally, raising its stock portfolio from 40 percent in 2007. It first added stocks in 1998, emerging markets in 2000 and this year real estate to boost returns and safeguard wealth.

Norway, a nation of 5 million people, generates money for the fund from taxes on oil and gas, ownership of petroleum fields and dividends from its 67 percent stake in Statoil ASA (STL), the country’s largest energy company. The Nordic nation is the world’s second-largest gas exporter and the seventh-biggest oil exporter. The oil fund invests outside Norway to avoid stoking domestic inflation.
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Post  Badboy Mon 14 May - 18:20

THE STOVCK MARKET(IN GREECE?) HAS FALLEN CONSIDERATELY BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL PROBLEMS.
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Post  Panda Mon 14 May - 18:32

Badboy wrote:THE STOVCK MARKET(IN GREECE?) HAS FALLEN CONSIDERATELY BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL PROBLEMS.


Badboy. not just Greece, all around Europe, GB, even the U.S. at the uncertainty .Greece is to have a Referendum on 17th June to vote whether it stays in the Eurozone. Even if the population agrees the situation will not get any betterm all it will mean is they will struggle on without a hope of improving their GDP.

What was the BBC programme you mentioned the other day? Iv.e looked in tonights and tomorrow but can't see anything relevant.
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Post  Badboy Mon 14 May - 18:40

Panda wrote:
Badboy wrote:THE STOVCK MARKET(IN GREECE?) HAS FALLEN CONSIDERATELY BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL PROBLEMS.


Badboy. not just Greece, all around Europe, GB, even the U.S. at the uncertainty .Greece is to have a Referendum on 17th June to vote whether it stays in the Eurozone. Even if the population agrees the situation will not get any betterm all it will mean is they will struggle on without a hope of improving their GDP.

What was the BBC programme you mentioned the other day? Iv.e looked in tonights and tomorrow but can't see anything relevant.
THE TRAILER WAS ON A FEW MINUTES AGO ON BBC1,CALLED THE GREAT EURO CRASH/CRISIS,THERE IS A PROGRAMME AT 23.20-0.20 ON BBC2,I THINK IT MIGHT BE THE ONE
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Post  Panda Mon 14 May - 18:59

Panda wrote:
Badboy wrote:THE STOVCK MARKET(IN GREECE?) HAS FALLEN CONSIDERATELY BECAUSE OF THE POLITICAL PROBLEMS.


Badboy. not just Greece, all around Europe, GB, even the U.S. at the uncertainty .Greece is to have a Referendum on 17th June to vote whether it stays in the Eurozone. Even if the population agrees the situation will not get any betterm all it will mean is they will struggle on without a hope of improving their GDP.

What was the BBC programme you mentioned the other day? Iv.e looked in tonights and tomorrow but can't see anything relevant.

Thanks, badboy, that's the one, I was looking at the BBC1 channels...will have a look,
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Post  Badboy Mon 14 May - 20:25

THE GREAT EURO CRISIS BY RICHARD PESTON? IS ON THURSDAY 9PM-10PM,FEATURES INTERVIEWS WITH ECB? PEOPLE.
WHILE TRYING TO FIND THE PROGRAMME,I READ THAT MANY HEDGE FUND MANAGERS(GEORGE SOROS ETC) ARE EXPECTING RICH PICKINGS FROM A EURO CRASH,MILTON FRIEDMAN ALSO PREDICTED PROBLEMS BACK AROUND 2000.
SOME ARE PREDICTING WIPEOUT OF PENSION FUNDS ETC
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Post  Lioned Mon 14 May - 22:55

Thanks for that Badboy.I feel so much better now! Just as i was starting to plan my next World cruise an all.
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Post  Badboy Mon 14 May - 23:05

Lioned wrote:Thanks for that Badboy.I feel so much better now! Just as i was starting to plan my next World cruise an all.
GOOD TO HEAR YOU FEEL MUCH BETTER ON READING WHAT I SAID.
I MAY HAVE YET MORE CHEERFUL NEWS ON A THREAD I AM THINKING OF STARTING.
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Post  Badboy Mon 14 May - 23:28

PROGRAMME HAS BEGAN SAYS ATHENS INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO BE SOLD OFF.
SHOWED A STREET WITH 1 SHOP OPEN,1/3 SHOPS CLOSED,PERSON SLEEPING IN STREET
20,000 DEPENDENT ON FOOD BANKS,PERSON IN CHARGE WAS ONCE HIGHLY PAYED,BUT IS NOW VERY POORLY PAID.
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Post  Badboy Mon 14 May - 23:34

EURO MEANT GREECE IMPORTED GERMAN CARS ETC.
EU COMMISSION KNEW THAT FIGURES WHEN GREECE JOINED WERE FIDDLED.
THOUSANDS OF LUXURY CARS ARE BEING UP FOR SALE,ONE BEEN FOR SALE FOR 7 MONTHS,FOR LESS THAN HALF IT COST TO BUY ORIGINALLY.
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Post  Badboy Mon 14 May - 23:43

THE GREEK GOVERNMENT SPEND LOTS OF MONEY IMPROVING/BUILDING RAILWAY,HAD TO IMPORT ITEMS,LOSING 1 BILLION? EUROS A YEAR.
OLYMPICS COST BILLIONS,SERVICING 100 OF BILLION IN INTEREST EVERY YEAR.
1000 YACHT OWNERS WERE CLAIMING TAX EXEMPTIONS THEY WERE NOT ENTITLED TO.
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Post  Lioned Mon 14 May - 23:43

Badboy wrote:
Lioned wrote:Thanks for that Badboy.I feel so much better now! Just as i was starting to plan my next World cruise an all.
GOOD TO HEAR YOU FEEL MUCH BETTER ON READING WHAT I SAID.
I MAY HAVE YET MORE CHEERFUL NEWS ON A THREAD I AM THINKING OF STARTING.

Thanks for the warning.I'll get the brandy out ready.
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Post  Lioned Mon 14 May - 23:50

Talking of yachts.if you go to Skiathos they have a harbour there of quite some length with a stretch of yachts that makes Cannes look like a boating pool down the red rec'. There sure is some money around them Greek Islands.
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