Missing Madeleine
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Another criminal profiler.......

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Another criminal profiler.......

Post  Lillyofthevalley on Sat 28 Apr - 23:33

http://www.chelseahoffman.com/2012/04/new-madeleine-mccann-case-analysis-by.html

New Madeleine McCann Case Analysis by Criminal Profiler Chelsea Hoffman
The 2007 disappearance of Madeleine McCann gripped the entire world it seems. Now it's 2012 and there are still no answers in this case. Still, the public wants answers and it appears as though the McCanns at least show some kind of interest in continuing the search for the missing girl. The following case analysis is an attempt at digging down to the very beginning of this case in hopes of either confirming or disputing current offender profile/case profile theories regarding little Maddie.

Current working theories:


Stranger abduction
Familiar abduction (acquaintance/loved one/friend)
Foul play (with parents' knowledge [i.e. cover-up])
Foul play (without parents' knowledge)
Variable X ( To be discussed)


To summarize the case, Madeleine McCann vanished on the evening of May 3, 2007 -- a Thursday night. It was just days before the missing girl's fourth birthday. With her mother, father and twin siblings, Maddie was on vacation in Portugal -- staying at Praia da Luz in an apartment somewhere in the center of the resort. This central location seems to add to the mystery surrounding the case -- seeing as though the place was rather conspicuous. Kate and Gerry McCann, Maddie's parents, claim that they had left the child alone with her siblings to dine at a nearby cantina. The restaurant was approximately 130 yards away from the unsupervised children. Madeleine has not been found yet, and it's been five years. With this case being as high profile as it is on an international level, there is plenty of nonsense published regarding the case. There are plenty of lies, rumors and convoluted facts that need addressing and sifting through in order to get down to the core of the investigation.


There are also PR campaigns and hate groups -- much like with the Amanda Knox case. Certainly some of these groups mean well, but it's important to pay attention to facts and actually explore every possible theory without getting tunnel vision. That's why I'm here. First I want to highlight statistics of the area of the alleged disappearance of Madeleine McCann.


Algarve, Portugal
Population: over 450,000 (variable: increases to over 1 Million during tourism months [i.e. summertime]
Economics: #3 in wealthiest Portugal cities
Sociology/Politics: parliamentary constitutional republic/Catholic, evangelical, Christian, other.
Crime summary: Supposedly no "gangs" but an epicenter for drug trafficking and crimes against wealthy visitors and expats. (possible human trafficking?) CIA Worldbook states that Portugal itself is inundated with Latin American cocaine, hashish from North Africa and Southwest Asian heroin. Record amounts of these drugs have been seized in Portugal in general -- Algarve growing in high crime rate related to these drugs and due to the diminishing economy. Drug Crimes in Portugal make up for quite a large percentage of the population. Nearly 4,000 out of ever 100,000 people have committed drug offenses in the country.
--- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
Missing cases in Algarve and surrounding areas: undefined
Homicide rate: Gun violence and murdered committed by "youths" dominant in Portugal
Unsolved homicide rate: undefined
Sex crime rate: 0.2% -- weighted average (worldwide) is 0.6% -- New Zealand leading in sex crimes (i.e. rapes) Portugal is very low on the list of rape statistics. However, this only accounts for reported rapes. Compare 0.2% to the revolving 1 Million occupants of Algarve, that statistic comes to - 200,000 potential rape victims annually. However, there are no close stats to report of Algarve -- it appears that the crime rate in general for all of Portugal is among the lowest in the world's aside from drug related offenses.
Child crime rate: undefined
Crime total: 218,360 -- far lower than United States, Australia and even Sweden!

Corruption crimes make up for 15%, 47% and 17% of crimes in Portugal (split into three categories i.e. business, property and courts)

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Analyze the stats: Stranger Abduction Theory
Given the extremely low crime rate of Portugal as a nation, it's hard to take notice of the "abduction" scenario in the Madeleine McCann disappearance. Looking at the various crime stats in the country compared to the population of the Algarve area, it's hard to fully accept the theory that Maddie was abducted by a stranger.

Nonetheless, the sheer negligence of Kate and Gerry McCann could have alerted any nearby predators. They admitted to leaving the kids alone more than once -- this could have been their undoing. There is always the chance that this could have happened. However, predators of this level are not impulse predators but calculative. With a calculative predator in the Algarve area, there would most likely be other cases of missing children and women. Upon researching the stats, there don't appear to be any readily available for a surface profile of the statistics. A calculative predator that is capable, and willing, to abduct a three-year old girl from her parent's vacation rental, with only the window of time left by the parents, is most likely a serial predator. (mind the commas!)
Check it out: If this child was abducted by a stranger, there would be at least two more cases of missing young girls in the region over the past decade or so. There haven't been any that have been reported. This is a modern European region, so it's hard to believe that there would be a vast amount of unreported disappearances and kidnappings. The fact that Madeleine's story hit international news wasn't entirely because she was a cute blonde girl from England who vanished on vacation. No, it was also because there simply isn't that kind of crime to be spoken of in the Algarve. That doesn't mean that there is absolutely none, but none to speak of -- meaning, the cases would have made headlines as well especially if any of the disappearances occurred after Maddie's disappearance.

Now there is always the possibility of corruption and coverups on the side of law enforcement in Algarve -- which isn't unlikely given the stats of corruption in Portugal in general.

Again, the likelihood of Madeleine McCann being abducted by a stranger are slim to none.


Please stay tuned for Part Two of my profile in which I will delve into the possibilities of abduction by someone she knew, or foul play. Part two will be a long one! Keep in mind that I am doing this in chunks starting with a statistical analysis. Next I will be looking into all known evidence and statements made regarding the first 48 hours of the case.

Lillyofthevalley
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Re: Another criminal profiler.......

Post  tanszi on Sun 29 Apr - 0:02

good luck with all that, excellent overview based on statistics; the interviews will be a challenge imo, nevertheless looking forward to an analysis of the known evidence, so no jemmied shutters, and statements in the first 48 hours which have morphed since with various interviews and bewks. jimo

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Re: Another criminal profiler.......

Post  Angelique on Sun 29 Apr - 0:41

Lilyofthevalley

Thank you for this article by a new Criminal Profiler, chelseahoffman.

I think Part II will be interesting and look forward to it.

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Re: Another criminal profiler.......

Post  gilly4 on Sun 29 Apr - 0:57

tanszi wrote:good luck with all that, excellent overview based on statistics; the interviews will be a challenge imo, nevertheless looking forward to an analysis of the known evidence, so no jemmied shutters, and statements in the first 48 hours which have morphed since with various interviews and bewks. jimo

I'm starting to think we need to discard anything that has been/is written in the papers. Weeks or months later we are told that it is incorrect, and the papers are happy to sell whatever the next line is. We are then fed more incorrect information which again turns out to be incorrect.
Forget what the UK papers tell us. Listen to what is filmed. Anything filmed is harder to deny at a later date.

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Re: Another criminal profiler.......

Post  Lillyofthevalley on Sun 29 Apr - 8:50

Yes I'm looking forward to the follow up.

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Re: Another criminal profiler.......

Post  Guest on Sun 29 Apr - 9:21

I'm also awaiting Part 2 with interest.

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Re: Another criminal profiler.......

Post  frencheuropean on Sun 29 Apr - 22:12

Interesting comments too. I wonder what this profiler thinks of Mr Redwood's speech?

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Re: Another criminal profiler.......

Post  Lioned on Sun 29 Apr - 23:25

Clever little cookie this one is.Excellent stuff so far, hope she keeps it up could be interesting.

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Re: Another criminal profiler.......

Post  steve1295 on Sun 29 Apr - 23:29

No doubt she is next on the hit list of cultmccann.

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Re: Another criminal profiler.......

Post  Panda on Mon 30 Apr - 1:40



Thanks Lillyofthevalley.....this makes for an intelligent perspective on the case, I think she should write a Book.

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Re: Another criminal profiler.......

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