THE DOMINO EFFECT IN THE MIDDLE EAST

@SultanAlQassemi

British Foreign Minister now saying that Moussa Koussa has not been promised immunity & has travelled to London of his own free will.
3 minutes ago via web

Operation Unified Protector (was Odyssey Dawn) explained (Day 11) March 30, 2011
Let me start Day 11 Debrief with a provocation: is the partial retreat of the rebel fighters, who found the fierce opposition of the pro-Gaddafi forces on their westward advance, a consequence of a more cautious use of the force caused by the change of command? Obviously, my guess is far-fetched and my aim is only to stimulate debate but I think that when NATO will finally take over the full control of the war (arms embargo, No-Fly Zone, ground attacks to protect civilians), an accurate selection of targets in order to keep Unified Protector within the mandate of the UN resolution could somehow slow down the oppositors who, in the last days, had obtained important gains also because of the intervention (someone said “cover”) of the coalition aircraft. Pentagon spokesman Vice Adm Bill Gortney said that the military gains made by rebels would be tenuos because, not being part of a military corps, they are not well organised.

Noteworthy is the news that Unified Protector saw its first maritime strike during Day 11: a U.S. Navy P-3C patrol aircraft, an A-10 from the 81FS deployed to Aviano, and guided-missile destroyer USS Barry (DDG-52) engaged a Libyan Coast Guard vessel Vittoria and two smaller crafts after confirmed reports that Vittoria and accompanying craft were firing indiscriminately at merchant vessels in the port of Misrata, Libya, during the evening Mar. 28, 2011. According to the press release of AFRICOM, the P-3C fired an unspecified number of AGM-65F Maverick missile (infrared targeting version optimized for ship tracking) at Vittoria, after multiple explosions were observed in the vicinity of the port, forcing the 12-meter patrol vessel to be beached. An A-10, using its 30mm GAU-8/Avenger gatling cannon destroyed one the two small craft rendering the other one ineffective (it was later abandoned) while Barry guided-missile destroyer managed the airspace and mantained the maritime picture providing attacking aircraft with the required situational awareness.

Let me underline two key things of this action:

it’s somehow weird to notice that in a strike involving both A-10s and AGM-65 Mavericks, the “Warthog” was not the platform used to fire the Maverick missile as the A-10/AGM-65 is considered one of the most deadly couple (in anti-tank warfare, obviously).
it’s likely that the PSYOPS message directed to naval officers and sailors of Libyan military ships (the one I’ve discussed a couple of days ago) was addressed to both Vittoria and other pro-Gaddafi vessels that were threatening merchand ships. Most probably, considering the number of PSYOPS messages that were recorded by the radio ham community in the last days, before and after the successful attack against Vittoria, there is still some Libyan naval activity in the vicinity of the port of Misratah.

Other interesting things, informations and thoughts:

1) Around 18.55 LT, AFP news agency reported the news of seven explosions shaking Tajoura, Tripoli. A resident told that planes fired missiles at a military radar installation, while another reported seeing flames and a column of smoke afterwards. Looks like that some mobile/hidden radars are still active in the eastern suburb of Tajoura, where the AGM-88 HARM missile fin was found as explained in yesterday Debrief.

In Monday’s press update VADM Gortney gave some interesting details about the SAM activities recorded by the coalition:

We also struck some pre-planned targets around Tripoli and Sabha, mostly ammunition stores and bunkers, though we did take out an SA-6 mobile surface-to-air missile site in Tripoli as well. I’m told, over the last 24 hours, the coalition has flown 178 sorties, the majority of which were strike related. And just as I briefed you on Friday, our coalition partners continue to increase their participation.

…..

Last night, we have reporting of a — what we think is a ballistic missile launch of maybe an SA-2 or an SA-3. It was a pilot’s in-flight report. We’re investigating that. That’s the only one that I’m aware of.

…..

I will tell you, as a — as an aviator, every time you’re flying over hostile countries, you’re assuming you’re being shot at. The triple-A [anti-aircraft artillery] — there’s a lot of aimed triple-As up there and unaimed triple-As and — as well as a significant number in the thousands of MANPADs [man-portable air-defense systems], IR [infrared] missiles. Those are the threats, and they’re looking for them. And you have to assume that they’re coming out there. But of the reports, we only — I only know of that one from last night.

2) La Repubblica.it website unveiled in its daily Libya Live updates that during the night of 28th and 29th, an F-16 deployed to Aviano and involved in Unified Protector declared emergency on arrival at Aviano. Even if the aircraft landed safely, the emergency plan was activated most probably because the aircraft uses Hydrazine, a colorless liquid (for more info click here) that feeds the electrical systems and the EPU (Emergency Power Unit) in case of engine failure. Should a flame-out occur, hydraulic and electrical systems are fed by the electrical current generated by the EPU, activated by the engine or by a system propelled by hydrazine. Hydrazine is highly toxic and highly inflammable, and can be dangerous for the health of whom is accidentally exposed to it. Each squadron and airbase equipped with F-16s must be able to manage engine emergencies requiring the EPU using methodologies that do not leave space to improvisation. For more information on how the Hydrazine emergency plan developed at Cervia airbase in 2004, when the base hosted the F-16s of the 23° Gruppo can be found here.

3) The RDAF has dropped 81 bombs providing 5% of the overall effort. Most important, the post-strike reconnaissance shows that no collateral damages were caused by the Danish. As of March 28, Norwegian aircraft had participated in 9 missions engaging military ground targets. On a Day 11 briefing, the UK Chief of Defence Staff’s Strategic Communication Officer, Maj-Gen John Lorimer, said that in the morning 2 Tornado GR4s operating out of Gioia del Colle conducted armed reconnaissance and combat air patrols over Libya. “During the mission near Misratah, one Libyan armoured fighting vehicle and two artillery pieces were engaged with Brimstone missiles. Initial reports indicate that the engagements were successful”. Two missions were flown by the RAF Typhoons providing combat air patrols. CAF Hornets destroyed an ammo depot 92 km south of Misratah in the night of Day 10 and 11, while on Day 11 one of two CP-140s now deployed flew its first Maritime patrol sortie off the Libyan coasts.

Dealing with the Italian contribution to Unified Protector, on Mar. 29 the activity comprised two missions of Eurofighter F-2000A Typhoons belonging to the 4° Stormo which performed CAP (Combat Air Patrols): the first one took off at 11.00LT and landed at 13.30LT, while the second took off at 12.30LT and landed at 14.30LT. Two maritime air defence missions were flown by pairs of AV-8B+ Harriers of the Italian Navy operating out of the Italian aircraft carrier Garibaldi. Two missions involving 2 Tornado ECRs and air-to-air refueling platforms (KC-130J and Tornado IDS) were flown too.

4) FAF is continuing its support to the QEAF Mirage 2000s based in Souda Bay with 4 Mirages deployed there that are flying two daily CAP missions along with two Qatari fighters. As the French MoD (kudos for the information and pictures, like those on these pages, rendered available through its website) underlines, between the two air forces there’s a strong relationship: since January 2011, two French fighter pilots are assigned to Qatari squadrons (flying Mirage 2000-5 and Alphajet); furthermore, bilateral tactical training period lasting two weeks is regularly held in Qatar as happened in 2010, with Exercise “Al Koot” held in Qatar from Nov. 26 to Dec. 16.

The evening of 28 March was marked by a strike carried out on an ammunition dump located in the region Gharyan, some 100 km south of Tripoli which saw the partecipation of 5 Rafales, 4 Mirage 2000Ds and 1 Super Etendard supported by C-135s and E-2 Hawkeye. On Mar 29, a similar force, supported by 4 tankers and 1 E-3F, hit a SAM site located at a hundred kilometers southwest of Tripoli. Reconnaissance was provided by 2 Rafales from Charles De Gaulle aircraft carried and 2 Mirage F-1CRs with recon pods operating out of Solenzara airport.

5) Sweden is about to deploy a contingent that should be made of 8 JAS 39 Gripen from 1′st div F17 at Ronneby and a supporting C-130 and one S-102B Gulfstream IV (ELINT platform). As someone emphasized, the arrival of the Gripen in the Mediterranean, marks the arrival of the 4th (maybe 5th if we consider also the UAE F-16E/F Block 60) contender in the Indian Air Force Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) Competition….

Operation Unified Protector (was Odyssey Dawn) explained (Day 12) March 31, 2011

It’s somehow clear that the coalition aircraft are playing an important role not only enforcing the No-Fly Zone over Libya or protecting the civilians from being attacked by Gaddafi’s forces, but also and above all in marking the extent of the rebel’s gains or retreats. If and when allied aircraft strike loyalist forces, the oppositors are able to advance in spite of their equipment or (lack of) organisation; when, like it seemed to happen during most of Day 12, the number and intensity of strikes on ground tagets decreases, the rebels are compelled to beat a rapid eastward retreat. Some explained the series of gains and subsequent retreats as a sign that Air Power is not enough when not backed by a direct ground intervention while, in my honest opinion, at least in this theatre, it’s the opposite. For the moment, it’s not a problem of being on the ground but a problem of being compelled to strike targets within the mandate of a United Nations resolution that gives little chance for offensive or pre-emptive operations required to render Gaddafi unable to harm his own people.

Furthermore, one of hyphothesis that is being (or at least could be) discussed among the coalition partners is the possibility to provide arms and other equipment to the rebels. During late evening of Mar. 30, news agencies reported that, according to sources, the CIA has been authorised to covertly support the oppositors by Barack Obama. Even if I don’t know if giving some arms (what exactly?) would be something permitted by the UN resolution, I wonder if it is really a good idea. As far as we have understood so far, the real problem of the rebels is not the lack of arms (some of which were collected during the first stages of the uprising) but a military know-how, organisation, tactics and everything that usually requires some years of training.

There’s also another problem. Intelligence agencies have already issued some warnings of the danger terrorist infiltration among the rebels. The NATO Secretary General Rasmussen said yesterday that a Libya disintegrating and becoming a haven for terrorists is the outcome’s worst-case scenario. Would you give the rebels some advanced equipment before they are able to isolate the extremist elements among them?

Anyway, BBC summarized the key action of Mar. 30 as follows:

Rebels have pulled out of the key oil town of Ras Lanuf, as well as Bin Jawad and Uqayla and are retreating from Brega after forces loyal to Colonel Muammar Gaddafi advanced further east, bombarding rebel positions with rockets.

In the western city of Misrata, fierce fighting is continuing. Troops loyal to Col Gaddafi stormed the city on Tuesday, firing shells. One doctor says more than 140 people have been killed.

Coalition air strikes are again reported to have hit the capital, Tripoli, overnight. The reports say Gaddafi’s compound was targeted and there have also been explosions reported on military targets in the suburb of Tajura.



Credit: BBC (left); ACIG.org (right, showing a JDAM dropped in Tajura on Mar.29).

Other interesting things, informations and thoughts:

1) Moussa Koussa, Libyan Foreign Ministry and one of the most senior figures in Gaddafi’s government defected to the UK. According to @FMCNL that was able to get some details on Koussa’s flight, he departed Djerba Zarzis International Airport Tunisia about 11.45 UTC with flight FPG362 Gulfstream 200 registration HB-JGL and landed at 15.00UTC in RAF Farnborough.

2) The US Air Force released some more information about the Global Power mission undertaken by two B-1Bs providing some interesting pictures of the aircraft taking off in the snow from Ellsworth AFB located some 10 miles northeast of Rapid City in South Dakota.

“Nearly 700 Ellsworth Airmen are currently deployed around the world supporting existing overseas contingency operations,” said Col. Jeffrey Taliaferro, 28th Bomb Wing commander, “But this week, the nation called again, and the Airmen of Ellsworth rallied and answered.”

With less than two days from first notice to takeoff, Ellsworth Airmen generated several aircraft and hundreds of weapons to provide the combat configuration needed halfway across the globe. A challenging task in the best of conditions, their work was made especially difficult by dismal weather, including four inches of snow, glare ice, and freezing fog.

If notification came with a prior advice of 2 days, we can affirm these aircraft were not launched to strike “targets of opportunity”….

While the specific targets of this historic mission could not be disclosed, officials stated that coalition forces are striking targets that pose a direct threat either to the civilian population or to partner nation aircraft enforcing the no-fly zone. Targets such as Libyan military sites and air defense systems have been carefully selected to reduce their attack capabilities while minimizing risk to the civilian population.
Of note, this mission marked the first time the B-1 fleet has launched combat sorties from the continental United States to strike targets overseas.

3) Yesterday I praised French MoD for providing up-to-date information and picture (as those published below). Unfortunately, other air forces involved in the Unified Protector operation are not doing the same giving out only very few details. Others, like the Norwegians (as Aksel Magdahl brought to my attention), seemed to have changed their media strategy and after providing interesting details have chosen to assume a “lower profile” giving only total figures. For instance RNoAF has completed 14 missions so far while RDAF has completed 35 ones. Both were involved in strikes against ground targets. Belgians have been involved in air-to-ground activities as the video released on Youtube shows.

Italian Air Force flew 3 missions involving 2x Tornado ECRs each and 2 missions of NFZ enforcement with 2x Typhoons. The ItAF aircraft were refueled by 156° Gruppo/6° Stormo Tornado IDS deployed to Trapani (opened again for 4 civil planes for a total 18 daily routes on Mar.30). The Italian Navy flew 4 sorties with AV-8B+ from Garibaldi aircraft carrier.

Dealing with the French activity, in the evening of Mar. 29 a package made of two formations of 2x Rafale, two formations of 2x Mirage 2000D and 2x Super-Etendard modernisés (SEM), supported by 2x C-135 and 1x E-2, carried out a strike mission on a military depot located some 30 km south of Tripoli while a Rafale flight from Charles De Gaulle performed a reconnaissance mission. On Mar. 30, some of the aircraft belonging to a package made by 2 Rafale formations, 1 Mirage 2000D formation and a joint formation made by Rafale and Super Etendards destroyed a SAM site located about 20 km south of Sirte. From Souda Bay, a formation made by 2 French Mirages and 4 Qatari Mirage 2000-5s performed a Combat Air Patrol in the Libyan airspace.

4) The RNlAF is currently performing missions out of Decimomannu for the enforcement of the NFZ. A US reader of this blog, Sean Harrington, sent me a message recently to inform me that, by means of a web radio streaming KLu training missions on the Internet during the last week he heard the Dutch F-16 performing an air-to-air training sortie simulating the interception of a Libyan cargo violating the No-Fly Zone.
He’s the story:

Pilot 1 called out to the aircraft saying they were violating UN Resolution 1973 and to respond. PILOT 1 called out to “Libyan Air Force Antonov 12 Tail number J367″. This happened two more times. Finally another voice, with an all together different accent (that I associate with my time in Turkey), came on and said “This is my country, I will fly where I want”. PILOT 1 instructed the aircraft to fly heading 360, to which he replied “I am flying south” PILOT 1 called back ” You are violation of UN Resolution 1973, failure to comply will result in violence being rained upon you”. A minute later PILOT 2 called out “you have been intercepted, fly heading 360″
[...]
I didn’t hear anything for another 15 minutes, when I heard PILOT 1 call out “hostile 1 o’clock”… 30 seconds later … “fox 3″ followed shortly by “fox 3 kill, mirage f1″
Then the channel then went dead, as if the scanner had changed freqs.
[...]
In retrospect the radio traffic was very clear for the two fighters and supposed an12, i can only conclude this must have been an exercise.

Call signs I heard was either SHARK 1. It was as if i was only hearing one side of the radio traffic.
It all sounded very real, I only wish I had recorded it.