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Re: New EC Thread
Snow damages Colosseum, Medieval churches in Italy
By Laura Allsop, CNN
February 15, 2012 -- Updated 1722 GMT (0122 HKT)
The Colosseum in Rome, and sites in the historic walled town of Urbino, have suffered damage due to unprecedented snow-fall
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
London (CNN) -- Heavy snow in recent weeks has
already wreaked havoc across Europe -- now it is damaging some of the
continent's most recognized historic monuments.
The Colosseum in Rome has been forced to shut after small pieces of
its walls crumbled away as a result of freezing temperatures.
And buildings in the historic walled town of Urbino -- a UNESCO World Heritage Site -- are reported to be at risk of collapse under the weight of snow, following unprecedented blizzards in the area.
In the Italian capital, thousands of tourists have been disappointed
to discover the Colosseum, one of the city's most popular attractions,
is closed to visitors, while checks are carried out to determine the
extent of the damage and to help prevent further movement.
Rossella Rea, archaeologist and superintendent of the Colosseum, told
CNN: "Tests and evaluation of the damage is still ongoing, especially
on the second level of arches."
Rea said the enforced closure of the site would have a serious
financial impact -- the Colosseum attracts some 7,000 visitors a day,
paying 12 euros for a ticket -- but that it was necessary in the
circumstances.
"At the weekend, some of the tourists didn't understand why the
Colosseum was closed -- for people from northern countries, the snow is
not a problem.
"But it's very unusual for us and it caused the detachment of dust,
concrete and bricks. Little quantities but if they fall from a certain
height they can be dangerous."
Cristiano Brughitta, spokesman for Italy's Ministry for Cultural
Heritage and Activities, said the damage was caused by ice forming on
the walls of the monument.
It's an enormous quantity of snow compared with what we normally
get in winter and it's had a heavy impact, the equivalent of a flood
Gabriele Cavalera
"When the temperatures drop below zero, and there is rain and snow,
it causes ice to form which, with the increase in volume, pushes the
external plaster masonry and causes small pieces to fall off," he said.
David Pickles, senior architect at English Heritage, told CNN such
damage was an extreme version of the natural wear and tear buildings
face during everyday weather.
"There's a whole freeze/thaw cycle of damage to buildings where
moisture gets into the stonework, into the pores of the stone, it then
freezes and expands very significantly, it then breaks up the stone and
then when it thaws, bits of stone will start falling off.
"That's happening all the time, of course, that's one of the major
decay mechanisms in historic buildings anyway, because they're largely
water permeable... You can't treat stone to stop it happening."
In Urbino, in the Marche region of Italy, partial collapses have been reported at the convents of San Francesco and San Bernardino, while the roof of the Church of the Capuchins outside the town center has reportedly caved in.
The town's Duomo (cathedral) is also shut, because of water damage. Checks are being carried out on vulnerable buildings in the area.
"Our biggest worry is the buildings in the historic center, which
have wooden joists and delicate roofs," said Gabriele Cavalera, a
spokesperson for the local council.
According to Cavalera, residents of some private homes in the
historic center are adding extra support to the old roof beams in an
attempt to prevent any further cave-ins.
"It's an enormous quantity of snow compared with what we normally get
in winter and it's had a heavy impact, the equivalent of a flood," said
Cavalera.
Brughitta agreed that conditions were exceptional: "Maybe every 30 years it gets this cold, but it's very rare."
A number of Italy's historic monuments, including the Colosseum and Pompeii, have suffered in recent years from damage and collapse.
The Colosseum, which is scheduled to reopen to the public Thursday, is due to undergo restoration works later this year with sponsorship from luxury brand Tod's.
In case of similar snowfalls in the future, Brughitta in Rome
suggests using a type of cold-weather "blanket" for exposed monuments
such as the nearly 2,000-year-old Colosseum.
Though Pickles said such plans may be difficult, on a practical
level: "For a building like the Colosseum, I should think it would cost a
fortune to cover it, because we're talking about a huge wall area."
And while delicate, these buildings are nonetheless tenacious when it comes to adverse weather and acts of god.
After all, said Cavalera, The Ducal Palace in Urbino,
which is around 500 years old and a UNESCO World Heritage Site, managed
to resist collapse during the earthquakes of the 1990s and is so far
holding out against the snow.
By Laura Allsop, CNN
February 15, 2012 -- Updated 1722 GMT (0122 HKT)
The Colosseum in Rome, and sites in the historic walled town of Urbino, have suffered damage due to unprecedented snow-fall
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Snow has caused damage to the Colosseum in Rome and to historic buildings in Urbino
- Plunging temperatures caused ice to form on Colosseum walls, forcing off small pieces of rock
- Delicate houses in Urbino's historic walled center have suffered collapses
- Worst snowfall in Italy for many years; said to be equivalent of a severe flood
London (CNN) -- Heavy snow in recent weeks has
already wreaked havoc across Europe -- now it is damaging some of the
continent's most recognized historic monuments.
The Colosseum in Rome has been forced to shut after small pieces of
its walls crumbled away as a result of freezing temperatures.
And buildings in the historic walled town of Urbino -- a UNESCO World Heritage Site -- are reported to be at risk of collapse under the weight of snow, following unprecedented blizzards in the area.
In the Italian capital, thousands of tourists have been disappointed
to discover the Colosseum, one of the city's most popular attractions,
is closed to visitors, while checks are carried out to determine the
extent of the damage and to help prevent further movement.
Rossella Rea, archaeologist and superintendent of the Colosseum, told
CNN: "Tests and evaluation of the damage is still ongoing, especially
on the second level of arches."
Rea said the enforced closure of the site would have a serious
financial impact -- the Colosseum attracts some 7,000 visitors a day,
paying 12 euros for a ticket -- but that it was necessary in the
circumstances.
"At the weekend, some of the tourists didn't understand why the
Colosseum was closed -- for people from northern countries, the snow is
not a problem.
"But it's very unusual for us and it caused the detachment of dust,
concrete and bricks. Little quantities but if they fall from a certain
height they can be dangerous."
Cristiano Brughitta, spokesman for Italy's Ministry for Cultural
Heritage and Activities, said the damage was caused by ice forming on
the walls of the monument.
It's an enormous quantity of snow compared with what we normally
get in winter and it's had a heavy impact, the equivalent of a flood
Gabriele Cavalera
"When the temperatures drop below zero, and there is rain and snow,
it causes ice to form which, with the increase in volume, pushes the
external plaster masonry and causes small pieces to fall off," he said.
David Pickles, senior architect at English Heritage, told CNN such
damage was an extreme version of the natural wear and tear buildings
face during everyday weather.
"There's a whole freeze/thaw cycle of damage to buildings where
moisture gets into the stonework, into the pores of the stone, it then
freezes and expands very significantly, it then breaks up the stone and
then when it thaws, bits of stone will start falling off.
"That's happening all the time, of course, that's one of the major
decay mechanisms in historic buildings anyway, because they're largely
water permeable... You can't treat stone to stop it happening."
In Urbino, in the Marche region of Italy, partial collapses have been reported at the convents of San Francesco and San Bernardino, while the roof of the Church of the Capuchins outside the town center has reportedly caved in.
The town's Duomo (cathedral) is also shut, because of water damage. Checks are being carried out on vulnerable buildings in the area.
"Our biggest worry is the buildings in the historic center, which
have wooden joists and delicate roofs," said Gabriele Cavalera, a
spokesperson for the local council.
According to Cavalera, residents of some private homes in the
historic center are adding extra support to the old roof beams in an
attempt to prevent any further cave-ins.
"It's an enormous quantity of snow compared with what we normally get
in winter and it's had a heavy impact, the equivalent of a flood," said
Cavalera.
Brughitta agreed that conditions were exceptional: "Maybe every 30 years it gets this cold, but it's very rare."
A number of Italy's historic monuments, including the Colosseum and Pompeii, have suffered in recent years from damage and collapse.
The Colosseum, which is scheduled to reopen to the public Thursday, is due to undergo restoration works later this year with sponsorship from luxury brand Tod's.
In case of similar snowfalls in the future, Brughitta in Rome
suggests using a type of cold-weather "blanket" for exposed monuments
such as the nearly 2,000-year-old Colosseum.
Though Pickles said such plans may be difficult, on a practical
level: "For a building like the Colosseum, I should think it would cost a
fortune to cover it, because we're talking about a huge wall area."
And while delicate, these buildings are nonetheless tenacious when it comes to adverse weather and acts of god.
After all, said Cavalera, The Ducal Palace in Urbino,
which is around 500 years old and a UNESCO World Heritage Site, managed
to resist collapse during the earthquakes of the 1990s and is so far
holding out against the snow.
Panda- Platinum Poster
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Number of posts : 30555
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Re: New EC Thread
Panda wrote:This is the part that bothers me frenchperson.
But Hollande's lavish praise of Tony Blair was revealing about his
own political orientation and his potential style of running France. For
years, Blair, New Labour and the third way were heresy to most French
Socialists. Hollande said Blair was pleasant "and so intelligent he
didn't need to be arrogant". He added: "The first lesson to take from
Blair is how long he lasted ... Second, he was able, after a long period
of Thatcherism, to reinstate education, health and the public sector
... Then he succumbed to the dominant idea that the markets could
regulate themselves and the notion that the markets and [economic]
liberalism in themselves could be a factor for growth ... We saw the
consequences."
The fact he liked Blair? Or the fact that he wants put in the right place the God MONEY?
Blair imo was better than Thatcher and her poll tax isn't it? And, may be it's utopic to want a world ruled by human values.
Probably but Hollande is clever and upright and I trust him, at least to try.
frencheuropean- Platinum Poster
- Number of posts : 1203
Warning :
Registration date : 2009-11-02
Re: New EC Thread
frencheuropean wrote:Panda wrote:This is the part that bothers me frenchperson.
But Hollande's lavish praise of Tony Blair was revealing about his
own political orientation and his potential style of running France. For
years, Blair, New Labour and the third way were heresy to most French
Socialists. Hollande said Blair was pleasant "and so intelligent he
didn't need to be arrogant". He added: "The first lesson to take from
Blair is how long he lasted ... Second, he was able, after a long period
of Thatcherism, to reinstate education, health and the public sector
... Then he succumbed to the dominant idea that the markets could
regulate themselves and the notion that the markets and [economic]
liberalism in themselves could be a factor for growth ... We saw the
consequences."
The fact he liked Blair? Or the fact that he wants put in the right place the God MONEY?
Blair imo was better than Thatcher and her poll tax isn't it? And, may be it's utopic to want a world ruled by human values.
Probably but Hollande is clever and upright and I trust him, at least to try.
Tony Blair took Britain into a War in Iraq under false pretence, there were no weapons of mass destruction, His Government was sleazy, corrupt and
left Government with not one Department improved and in a lot of debt. Needless to say, Tony Blair has retired from Politics and making a fortune.
If Hollande is honest and clever enough to guide France through this crisis, that's fine.
Panda- Platinum Poster
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Number of posts : 30555
Age : 67
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Re: New EC Thread
Hans Hues of a Capital Management Company says the Bondholders were negotiating with Greece and ready to come to an agreement when the EU
stepped in and there are too many groups interfering. He says it is the EU holding up the Greek debt resolution because there are other Countries, Portugal , Spain in particular who are selling Bonds and may need more bailout.. He says it is not just Germany who is anti Greece , Holland and Finland have expressed doubt about Greece honouring it's Debt . However, Hues says a decision must be made regarding the Bonds.
stepped in and there are too many groups interfering. He says it is the EU holding up the Greek debt resolution because there are other Countries, Portugal , Spain in particular who are selling Bonds and may need more bailout.. He says it is not just Germany who is anti Greece , Holland and Finland have expressed doubt about Greece honouring it's Debt . However, Hues says a decision must be made regarding the Bonds.
Panda- Platinum Poster
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Number of posts : 30555
Age : 67
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Warning :
Registration date : 2010-03-27
Re: New EC Thread
Greek crisis
Brussels’ fatal therapy
15 February 2012
Die Zeit
Hamburg
Deligne / Caglecartoons
The Euro Group has postponed its decision on whether or
not to grant a new aid package to Greece, fearing that the austerity
plan adopted by Athens will not be implemented. But rather than the
brutal slashing imposed by Brussels, the country needs to be
restructured. And rather than being stigmatised, it is in need of
solidarity.
Ludwig Greven
The latest news from a divided Europe is that for the first
time, German exports have reached €1 billion. The economic situation
is bright, tax revenues are rising, unemployment is falling, [labour
union] IG Metall, due to high profits in the industrial sector, is
asking for a 6.5% salary increase. Germany is an island of bliss.
And now here is Greece, a country in the midst of upheaval, thrown
into the abyss. The transition government has decided, under the
pressure of the Troika (European Union, European Central Bank,
International Monetary Fund), to impose a new set of draconian
austerity measures. Salaries are to be slashed by 20-30% and150,000
people will be laid off from the public sector by 2015. The economy,
which is expected to shrink by at least 8% this year, is in freefall
and the threat of bankruptcy has not been averted.
The risk of political radicalism
The second EU bailout plan, totalling €130 billion, has been
nonetheless suspended. The Eurozone Finance Ministers, in fact, doubt
that the government of Prime Minister Lukas Papademos is up to the task
of applying the announced austerity measures – not without reason. The
cuts already enacted do not work because they only make things worse.
In addition, the Greeks are putting up a stiff resistance to the
programme of pauperisation and decline of their country.
Is this the prospect for a united Europe? Transforming the land in
which Western culture and democracy were born into a protectorate of
Brussels – with no hope for improvement? Is this a continent ever more
deeply divided between the rich North and the South with its misery in
which people wonder where their daily bread will come from? Meanwhile,
in Germany, the ruling coalition is seriously thinking about cutting
taxes.
Yet, one cannot be indifferent to what is happening on the rest of
the continent. And not only because it heightens the risk of political
radicalism and the return of nationalism, as will be evident in the
upcoming Greek elections.
We should also be concerned because this development, fraught with
consequences and clearly promoted by Berlin, threatens our own model for
success. The German economy prospers only because our firms do
business to the detriment of weaker countries.
Threatening atmosphere mainly hostile to Germany
But who, in the future, will still be able to buy German products?
Would it not make sense to admit that we do not need to be associated
with countries in crisis that cost us money?
However, anyone who thinks along these lines is making a serious
mistake. The country that is deriving the most benefit from the
programmes to save euro is not Greece, but Germany. If Greece goes
bankrupt, Germany’s banks will also lose billions, and German taxpayers
will have to cover the cost. If we re-introduced the deutsche mark, it
would immediately shoot up in value. Prices of German products would
increase by 40%, and the German model of growth fueled by exports would
rapidly come to an end.
Southern Europe, and not just Greece, is increasingly pervaded by a
threatening atmosphere that is mainly hostile to Germany. Close to 70
years after the end of the war, our country is once again perceived as
an enemy. And demands for a radical response to the hostility of
Brussels and Berlin are growing more and more vocal.
But can we really criticize these people who have been plunged into
poverty? Are they supposed to stand idly by while their modest model of
prosperity is ground into the dust and their politicians are
completely sidelined? All of this so that the banks and speculators can
recover all of the high interest loans that they were so eager to
foist on weak countries.
Greece needs our solidarity
No, this is not the Europe in which we want to live: a Europe where
the banks and investment funds decide which countries will survive and
which will not.
The austerity policy unilaterally imposed by the financial
institutions and Angela Merkel comes at high cost: it will result in
the disintegration of Europe. And this will be followed by a prolonged
depression that sooner or later will be felt in Germany.
Greece needs our solidarity. We should write off its debts and set
about implementing a development plan instead of insisting on an
endless cycle of bailouts and austerity measures. This is what is
needed if, in ten or 20 years time, we want to see a country that can
once again stand on its own two feet and act as a full member of the
Union.
Such a European development project would not cost more than other
options, while opening new horizons for the people of Greece and the
people of Europe. This is why we should push for such a plan, instead
of campaigning for an end to European solidarity and the expulsion of
Greece from the eurozone. We need Greece to show that Europe has not
forgotten the reasons for its existence.
Brussels’ fatal therapy
15 February 2012
Die Zeit
Hamburg
Deligne / Caglecartoons
The Euro Group has postponed its decision on whether or
not to grant a new aid package to Greece, fearing that the austerity
plan adopted by Athens will not be implemented. But rather than the
brutal slashing imposed by Brussels, the country needs to be
restructured. And rather than being stigmatised, it is in need of
solidarity.
Ludwig Greven
The latest news from a divided Europe is that for the first
time, German exports have reached €1 billion. The economic situation
is bright, tax revenues are rising, unemployment is falling, [labour
union] IG Metall, due to high profits in the industrial sector, is
asking for a 6.5% salary increase. Germany is an island of bliss.
And now here is Greece, a country in the midst of upheaval, thrown
into the abyss. The transition government has decided, under the
pressure of the Troika (European Union, European Central Bank,
International Monetary Fund), to impose a new set of draconian
austerity measures. Salaries are to be slashed by 20-30% and150,000
people will be laid off from the public sector by 2015. The economy,
which is expected to shrink by at least 8% this year, is in freefall
and the threat of bankruptcy has not been averted.
The risk of political radicalism
The second EU bailout plan, totalling €130 billion, has been
nonetheless suspended. The Eurozone Finance Ministers, in fact, doubt
that the government of Prime Minister Lukas Papademos is up to the task
of applying the announced austerity measures – not without reason. The
cuts already enacted do not work because they only make things worse.
In addition, the Greeks are putting up a stiff resistance to the
programme of pauperisation and decline of their country.
Is this the prospect for a united Europe? Transforming the land in
which Western culture and democracy were born into a protectorate of
Brussels – with no hope for improvement? Is this a continent ever more
deeply divided between the rich North and the South with its misery in
which people wonder where their daily bread will come from? Meanwhile,
in Germany, the ruling coalition is seriously thinking about cutting
taxes.
Yet, one cannot be indifferent to what is happening on the rest of
the continent. And not only because it heightens the risk of political
radicalism and the return of nationalism, as will be evident in the
upcoming Greek elections.
We should also be concerned because this development, fraught with
consequences and clearly promoted by Berlin, threatens our own model for
success. The German economy prospers only because our firms do
business to the detriment of weaker countries.
Threatening atmosphere mainly hostile to Germany
But who, in the future, will still be able to buy German products?
Would it not make sense to admit that we do not need to be associated
with countries in crisis that cost us money?
However, anyone who thinks along these lines is making a serious
mistake. The country that is deriving the most benefit from the
programmes to save euro is not Greece, but Germany. If Greece goes
bankrupt, Germany’s banks will also lose billions, and German taxpayers
will have to cover the cost. If we re-introduced the deutsche mark, it
would immediately shoot up in value. Prices of German products would
increase by 40%, and the German model of growth fueled by exports would
rapidly come to an end.
Southern Europe, and not just Greece, is increasingly pervaded by a
threatening atmosphere that is mainly hostile to Germany. Close to 70
years after the end of the war, our country is once again perceived as
an enemy. And demands for a radical response to the hostility of
Brussels and Berlin are growing more and more vocal.
But can we really criticize these people who have been plunged into
poverty? Are they supposed to stand idly by while their modest model of
prosperity is ground into the dust and their politicians are
completely sidelined? All of this so that the banks and speculators can
recover all of the high interest loans that they were so eager to
foist on weak countries.
Greece needs our solidarity
No, this is not the Europe in which we want to live: a Europe where
the banks and investment funds decide which countries will survive and
which will not.
The austerity policy unilaterally imposed by the financial
institutions and Angela Merkel comes at high cost: it will result in
the disintegration of Europe. And this will be followed by a prolonged
depression that sooner or later will be felt in Germany.
Greece needs our solidarity. We should write off its debts and set
about implementing a development plan instead of insisting on an
endless cycle of bailouts and austerity measures. This is what is
needed if, in ten or 20 years time, we want to see a country that can
once again stand on its own two feet and act as a full member of the
Union.
Such a European development project would not cost more than other
options, while opening new horizons for the people of Greece and the
people of Europe. This is why we should push for such a plan, instead
of campaigning for an end to European solidarity and the expulsion of
Greece from the eurozone. We need Greece to show that Europe has not
forgotten the reasons for its existence.
Panda- Platinum Poster
-
Number of posts : 30555
Age : 67
Location : Wales
Warning :
Registration date : 2010-03-27
Re: New EC Thread
13 February 2012
Last updated at 09:42
Q&A: Greek debt crisis
Continue reading the main story
What went wrong in Greece?
Greece's economic reforms, which led to it abandoning the drachma
as its currency in favour of the euro in 2002, made it easier for the
country to borrow money.
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Global Economy
Greek politicians have approved a bill on austerity measures needed for a new bailout.
The austerity measures have been demanded by the EU, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) -
the so-called Troika - as a condition for handing over a further loan.
The agreement will unlock the latest 130bn euros (£108bn;
$171bn) in bailout loans and allow a further 100bn-euro write-off of the
country's debt to private banks.
Athens faces loan repayments to private lenders of 14.4bn
euros on 20 March which it cannot afford to pay and it has failed to cut
its deficit.
What's in the austerity package?
European
leaders are sceptical of Greece's ability to implement spending cuts,
so in this latest round, they have been demanding measures that can be
implemented quickly and simply.
Greece was told to agree to further cuts in government
spending equal to 1.5% of GDP, cuts in pensions and thousands more civil
service job cuts.
But this time, the Troika also wants Greece to act to make
its economy more competitive, principally by cutting the cost of doing
business in Greece.
The government was told to make its labour markets more
flexible, to dramatically cut the minimum wage and to scrap a habit of
paying a "holiday bonus" equal to one or two months' extra pay.
It was also told to re-capitalise its banks, while ensuring they maintain their managerial independence.
The reforms to pensions proved the most difficult to stomach, but the government now says a compromise has been reached.
Hadn't Greece already implemented austerity measures?
Greece had already previously agreed to far-reaching austerity measures.
Taxes will increase by 3.38bn euros in 2013, following a 2.32bn euro increase in 2011.
The increase includes a solidarity levy of between 1% and 5%,
a cut in the tax-free threshold, a rise in VAT rates, and luxury taxes
on yachts, pools and cars.
In the public sector, pay will be cut and many bonuses scrapped.
Some 30,000 public sector workers are to be suspended, wage
bargaining will be suspended, and monthly pensions of above 1,000 euros
cut by 20%.
The government also aimed to raise about 50bn euros by 2020
from privatisations by selling land, utilities, ports, airports and
mining rights, but recently this target has been revised down
substantially because of the worsening economy.
Will it work?
That is the 130bn-euro question. The aim is to cut the Greek government's debt from 160% of GDP to 120% of GDP by 2020.
Despite the austerity measures taken so far, the Greek government still spends more than it receives in taxes.
Some economists and Greek unions say the plan is doomed to
fail. They argue that by making people poorer the measures will simply
shrink the Greek economy, reducing tax revenues and increasing the
deficit.
But EU leaders argue that there is no choice, that spending needs to fall even if it hurts the economy in the short term.
Further they argue that increasing competitiveness, by
lowering wages for example, will attract business to Greece and thereby
boost the economy and taxes.
What happens if the deal falls through?
Greece would not be able to pay back its lenders and would not have access to funds from the EU.
Banks and bond holders would lose out - but much of the money they would lose has already been written off.
The greater risk may be on the markets where investors may
lose confidence in the eurozone's ability to deal with situations where
countries are unable to pay their debts.
Within Greece, the government would no longer be able to
borrow money from anyone and may be unable to pay back its own banks
triggering panic and possible bank closures.
Greece could be forced to leave the eurozone and devalue its currency amidst political and economic turmoil.
Why is Greece in trouble?
Greece
has been living beyond its means since even before it joined the euro.
After it adopted the euro, public spending soared and public sector
wages practically doubled.
However, while money has flowed out of the government's coffers, its income has been hit by widespread tax evasion.
When the global financial downturn hit, Greece was ill-prepared to cope.
It was given 110bn euros of bailout loans in May 2010 to help
it get through the crisis - and then in July 2011, it was earmarked to
receive another 109bn euros.
But that still was not considered enough.
And so, in October 2011, the eurozone got banks to agree to a
50% "haircut" on their Greek holdings, alongside an enhanced 130bn-euro
bailout.
Since then, the economic situation in Greece has deteriorated
further and the deal now on the table involves an even bigger debt
write-off than previously consented to by the banks.
Crisis jargon buster
Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:
Default
Default
Strictly speaking, a default occurs when
a borrower has broken the terms of a loan or other debt, for example if
a borrower misses a payment. The term is also loosely used to mean any
situation that makes clear that a borrower can no longer repay its debts
in full, such as bankruptcy or a debt restructuring.
A default can have a number of important implications. If a borrower is
in default on any one debt, then all of its lenders may be able to
demand that the borrower immediately repay them. Lenders may also be
required to write off their losses on the loans they have made.
Glossary in full
Why did the crisis not end with the Greek bailout?
Although
Greece's troubles are the most extreme, they highlight problems in the
eurozone that also apply to some other economies.
Many other southern European countries ran up huge debts -
government debts as well as household mortgage debts - during the past
10 years. They also enjoyed rapidly rising wage levels.
Now the bust has come, it is very hard for them to repay the
debts. And the high wage levels leave their economies uncompetitive
compared with, for example, Germany.
Because they are inside the euro, these governments cannot
rely on their central bank - the ECB - to lend them the money. Nor can
they devalue their currencies to regain a competitive edge.
Meanwhile, they are having to push through very painful spending cuts and tax rises to get their borrowing under control.
But some analysts argue this is just pushing their economies into recession, cutting tax revenues.
In the meantime, EU leaders are struggling to enhance the
"firewall", in case any further countries prove unable to repay their
debts.
In October, they agreed that the new European Financial
Stability Fund would have up to 1tn euros to guard against future
sovereign debt crises. However, the money has yet to be raised.
Recently, the IMF said it, too, would have money available.
What does all this mean to the UK?
According
to figures from the Bank for International Settlements, UK banks hold a
relatively small $3.4bn worth of Greek sovereign debt, compared with
banks in Germany, which hold $22.6bn, and France, which hold $15bn.
When you add in other forms of Greek debt, such as lending to
private banks, those figures rise to $14.6bn for the UK, $34bn for
Germany and $56.7bn for France.
The UK government's direct contribution to any Greek bailout is limited to its participation as an IMF member.
However, any knock-on from Greece's troubles would exacerbate the UK's exposure to Irish debt, which is larger.
And if it led to a major financial crisis, as well as a deep
recession in the eurozone - the UK's main trading partner - the damage
to the UK economy would be substantial.
Last updated at 09:42
Q&A: Greek debt crisis
Continue reading the main story
What went wrong in Greece?
Greece's economic reforms, which led to it abandoning the drachma
as its currency in favour of the euro in 2002, made it easier for the
country to borrow money.
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Global Economy
Europe struck by growth slowdown
Germany: Reasons to be cheerful
Timeline of crisis
What if Greece got a new currency?
Greek politicians have approved a bill on austerity measures needed for a new bailout.
The austerity measures have been demanded by the EU, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) -
the so-called Troika - as a condition for handing over a further loan.
The agreement will unlock the latest 130bn euros (£108bn;
$171bn) in bailout loans and allow a further 100bn-euro write-off of the
country's debt to private banks.
Athens faces loan repayments to private lenders of 14.4bn
euros on 20 March which it cannot afford to pay and it has failed to cut
its deficit.
What's in the austerity package?
European
leaders are sceptical of Greece's ability to implement spending cuts,
so in this latest round, they have been demanding measures that can be
implemented quickly and simply.
Greece was told to agree to further cuts in government
spending equal to 1.5% of GDP, cuts in pensions and thousands more civil
service job cuts.
But this time, the Troika also wants Greece to act to make
its economy more competitive, principally by cutting the cost of doing
business in Greece.
The government was told to make its labour markets more
flexible, to dramatically cut the minimum wage and to scrap a habit of
paying a "holiday bonus" equal to one or two months' extra pay.
It was also told to re-capitalise its banks, while ensuring they maintain their managerial independence.
The reforms to pensions proved the most difficult to stomach, but the government now says a compromise has been reached.
Hadn't Greece already implemented austerity measures?
Greece had already previously agreed to far-reaching austerity measures.
Taxes will increase by 3.38bn euros in 2013, following a 2.32bn euro increase in 2011.
The increase includes a solidarity levy of between 1% and 5%,
a cut in the tax-free threshold, a rise in VAT rates, and luxury taxes
on yachts, pools and cars.
In the public sector, pay will be cut and many bonuses scrapped.
Some 30,000 public sector workers are to be suspended, wage
bargaining will be suspended, and monthly pensions of above 1,000 euros
cut by 20%.
The government also aimed to raise about 50bn euros by 2020
from privatisations by selling land, utilities, ports, airports and
mining rights, but recently this target has been revised down
substantially because of the worsening economy.
Will it work?
That is the 130bn-euro question. The aim is to cut the Greek government's debt from 160% of GDP to 120% of GDP by 2020.
Despite the austerity measures taken so far, the Greek government still spends more than it receives in taxes.
Some economists and Greek unions say the plan is doomed to
fail. They argue that by making people poorer the measures will simply
shrink the Greek economy, reducing tax revenues and increasing the
deficit.
But EU leaders argue that there is no choice, that spending needs to fall even if it hurts the economy in the short term.
Further they argue that increasing competitiveness, by
lowering wages for example, will attract business to Greece and thereby
boost the economy and taxes.
What happens if the deal falls through?
Greece would not be able to pay back its lenders and would not have access to funds from the EU.
Banks and bond holders would lose out - but much of the money they would lose has already been written off.
The greater risk may be on the markets where investors may
lose confidence in the eurozone's ability to deal with situations where
countries are unable to pay their debts.
Within Greece, the government would no longer be able to
borrow money from anyone and may be unable to pay back its own banks
triggering panic and possible bank closures.
Greece could be forced to leave the eurozone and devalue its currency amidst political and economic turmoil.
Why is Greece in trouble?
Greece
has been living beyond its means since even before it joined the euro.
After it adopted the euro, public spending soared and public sector
wages practically doubled.
However, while money has flowed out of the government's coffers, its income has been hit by widespread tax evasion.
When the global financial downturn hit, Greece was ill-prepared to cope.
It was given 110bn euros of bailout loans in May 2010 to help
it get through the crisis - and then in July 2011, it was earmarked to
receive another 109bn euros.
But that still was not considered enough.
And so, in October 2011, the eurozone got banks to agree to a
50% "haircut" on their Greek holdings, alongside an enhanced 130bn-euro
bailout.
Since then, the economic situation in Greece has deteriorated
further and the deal now on the table involves an even bigger debt
write-off than previously consented to by the banks.
Crisis jargon buster
Use the dropdown for easy-to-understand explanations of key financial terms:
Default
Default
Strictly speaking, a default occurs when
a borrower has broken the terms of a loan or other debt, for example if
a borrower misses a payment. The term is also loosely used to mean any
situation that makes clear that a borrower can no longer repay its debts
in full, such as bankruptcy or a debt restructuring.
A default can have a number of important implications. If a borrower is
in default on any one debt, then all of its lenders may be able to
demand that the borrower immediately repay them. Lenders may also be
required to write off their losses on the loans they have made.
Glossary in full
Why did the crisis not end with the Greek bailout?
Although
Greece's troubles are the most extreme, they highlight problems in the
eurozone that also apply to some other economies.
Many other southern European countries ran up huge debts -
government debts as well as household mortgage debts - during the past
10 years. They also enjoyed rapidly rising wage levels.
Now the bust has come, it is very hard for them to repay the
debts. And the high wage levels leave their economies uncompetitive
compared with, for example, Germany.
Because they are inside the euro, these governments cannot
rely on their central bank - the ECB - to lend them the money. Nor can
they devalue their currencies to regain a competitive edge.
Meanwhile, they are having to push through very painful spending cuts and tax rises to get their borrowing under control.
But some analysts argue this is just pushing their economies into recession, cutting tax revenues.
In the meantime, EU leaders are struggling to enhance the
"firewall", in case any further countries prove unable to repay their
debts.
In October, they agreed that the new European Financial
Stability Fund would have up to 1tn euros to guard against future
sovereign debt crises. However, the money has yet to be raised.
Recently, the IMF said it, too, would have money available.
What does all this mean to the UK?
According
to figures from the Bank for International Settlements, UK banks hold a
relatively small $3.4bn worth of Greek sovereign debt, compared with
banks in Germany, which hold $22.6bn, and France, which hold $15bn.
When you add in other forms of Greek debt, such as lending to
private banks, those figures rise to $14.6bn for the UK, $34bn for
Germany and $56.7bn for France.
The UK government's direct contribution to any Greek bailout is limited to its participation as an IMF member.
However, any knock-on from Greece's troubles would exacerbate the UK's exposure to Irish debt, which is larger.
And if it led to a major financial crisis, as well as a deep
recession in the eurozone - the UK's main trading partner - the damage
to the UK economy would be substantial.
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Re: New EC Thread
Doubting Greeks’ Resolve, Euro Zone May Hold Back Full Bailout
By NICHOLAS KULISH and STEPHEN CASTLE
Published: February 15, 2012
BERLIN — Distrustful of Greek politicians, European leaders considered a plan on Wednesday to hold back a significant share of the $171 billion bailout for the deeply indebted country even if Athens passes the austerity measures demanded by its international lenders.
Enlarge This ImageLouisa Gouliamaki/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Workers in Athens removed debris on Tuesday from a bank damaged in anti-austerity riots.
“Statements and assurances from Greece are no longer taken at face value,” said Wolfram Schrettl, professor of economics at the Free University in Berlin. “There is a growing belief that Greece is looking for a sucker — and Germany’s playing the sucker.”
Financial experts say they still expect the deal to go through in some form, but the haggling and potential changes — spiced by a remark from the Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, that “there are many in the euro zone who don’t want us anymore” — were enough to send financial markets reeling in Europe and the United States.
In a conference call on Wednesday evening, the European finance ministers discussed a plan under which they might pay only about $40 billion to help reach a deal with private-sector bondholders and assure that Greece could meet a $19 billion bond payment in late March. But under that plan they would not sign off on the rest of the package until a new Greek government is formed after parliamentary elections in April.
The issue holding up a deal was not financial but political, officials said. Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, who leads the group of euro zone finance ministers, said that stronger oversight was necessary to ensure that the Greek government put austerity measures and economic restructuring into effect. But Mr. Juncker stopped short of saying that the rescue funds would be released, a decision that has been deferred until a meeting of the finance ministers in Brussels on Monday.
Officials in other European capitals fear that if Greece is given the entire bailout at once, politicians in Athens will ease up on the politically unpopular measures, yielding to the pressure of a people who are fed up with austerity. The officials remained skeptical despite receiving written pledges on Wednesday from Greek leaders, who said they would adhere to the terms of the bailout agreement even after parliamentary elections.
“Who will ensure afterward that Greece continues to stand by what Greece is agreeing to now?” Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, said in a radio interview. He said he “had doubts” that Greece would fulfill all of the requirements.
The tougher stance reflects a growing belief that Europe could weather a default by Greece and its subsequent departure from the euro zone, and that such a move would not destabilize financially shaky countries like Portugal, Spain and even Italy. In a sign of the poisonous atmosphere that is coloring the discussions, the Greek president, Karolos Papoulias, accused Mr. Schäuble of insulting his country.
“We all have the obligation to make the effort to get through this crisis. I will not accept Mr. Schäuble reviling my country. I don’t accept this as a Greek,” Mr. Papoulias told members of the Greek armed forces during a visit to the Defense Ministry. “Who is Mr. Schäuble to revile Greece? Who are the Dutch? Who are the Finns? We always had the pride to defend not only our own country but the freedom of Europe.”
Further eroding support for Greece is the rising concern that even if the nation’s politicians follow through on the required overhaul, it will not be enough to put the country back on a sustainable track. Greece’s economy shrank 7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, even faster than projected, making its fiscal goals that much harder to achieve.
“Austerity is like every potent medicine; an overdose of it can kill the patient,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. “The tragedy of Greece is that they overdelivered on the austerity and underdelivered on the structural reforms; as a result, Greece is in a big mess.”
Though Germany is by no means alone in its skepticism, the conflict has increasingly become a two-nation affair. Protesters in Greece have burned German flags, and a rising chorus in Germany has called for the Greeks to be kicked out of the euro zone. The chief executive of the powerful industrial company Bosch on Wednesday became the latest high-profile figure to call for a Greek exit.
The conference call on Wednesday came after Mr. Juncker canceled a meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels. Greece’s international lenders have demanded details on how Athens plans to make up a shortfall of $430 million in required budget savings after Greek political leaders insisted on limiting cuts to pensions. Mr. Juncker said those measures had now been identified.
But officials in Brussels cautioned that big doubts remained. “We’ve seen things moving in the last few days,” said one euro zone official who was not authorized to speak publicly, “but not quickly enough. The Greeks have to help us to help them.” Another official said that there were still not enough details about the additional savings.
Nicholas Kulish reported from Berlin, and Stephen Castle from Brussels. Niki Kitsantonis contributed reporting from Athens.
By NICHOLAS KULISH and STEPHEN CASTLE
Published: February 15, 2012
BERLIN — Distrustful of Greek politicians, European leaders considered a plan on Wednesday to hold back a significant share of the $171 billion bailout for the deeply indebted country even if Athens passes the austerity measures demanded by its international lenders.
Enlarge This ImageLouisa Gouliamaki/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Workers in Athens removed debris on Tuesday from a bank damaged in anti-austerity riots.
“Statements and assurances from Greece are no longer taken at face value,” said Wolfram Schrettl, professor of economics at the Free University in Berlin. “There is a growing belief that Greece is looking for a sucker — and Germany’s playing the sucker.”
Financial experts say they still expect the deal to go through in some form, but the haggling and potential changes — spiced by a remark from the Greek finance minister, Evangelos Venizelos, that “there are many in the euro zone who don’t want us anymore” — were enough to send financial markets reeling in Europe and the United States.
In a conference call on Wednesday evening, the European finance ministers discussed a plan under which they might pay only about $40 billion to help reach a deal with private-sector bondholders and assure that Greece could meet a $19 billion bond payment in late March. But under that plan they would not sign off on the rest of the package until a new Greek government is formed after parliamentary elections in April.
The issue holding up a deal was not financial but political, officials said. Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, who leads the group of euro zone finance ministers, said that stronger oversight was necessary to ensure that the Greek government put austerity measures and economic restructuring into effect. But Mr. Juncker stopped short of saying that the rescue funds would be released, a decision that has been deferred until a meeting of the finance ministers in Brussels on Monday.
Officials in other European capitals fear that if Greece is given the entire bailout at once, politicians in Athens will ease up on the politically unpopular measures, yielding to the pressure of a people who are fed up with austerity. The officials remained skeptical despite receiving written pledges on Wednesday from Greek leaders, who said they would adhere to the terms of the bailout agreement even after parliamentary elections.
“Who will ensure afterward that Greece continues to stand by what Greece is agreeing to now?” Germany’s finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, said in a radio interview. He said he “had doubts” that Greece would fulfill all of the requirements.
The tougher stance reflects a growing belief that Europe could weather a default by Greece and its subsequent departure from the euro zone, and that such a move would not destabilize financially shaky countries like Portugal, Spain and even Italy. In a sign of the poisonous atmosphere that is coloring the discussions, the Greek president, Karolos Papoulias, accused Mr. Schäuble of insulting his country.
“We all have the obligation to make the effort to get through this crisis. I will not accept Mr. Schäuble reviling my country. I don’t accept this as a Greek,” Mr. Papoulias told members of the Greek armed forces during a visit to the Defense Ministry. “Who is Mr. Schäuble to revile Greece? Who are the Dutch? Who are the Finns? We always had the pride to defend not only our own country but the freedom of Europe.”
Further eroding support for Greece is the rising concern that even if the nation’s politicians follow through on the required overhaul, it will not be enough to put the country back on a sustainable track. Greece’s economy shrank 7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011, even faster than projected, making its fiscal goals that much harder to achieve.
“Austerity is like every potent medicine; an overdose of it can kill the patient,” said Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank in London. “The tragedy of Greece is that they overdelivered on the austerity and underdelivered on the structural reforms; as a result, Greece is in a big mess.”
Though Germany is by no means alone in its skepticism, the conflict has increasingly become a two-nation affair. Protesters in Greece have burned German flags, and a rising chorus in Germany has called for the Greeks to be kicked out of the euro zone. The chief executive of the powerful industrial company Bosch on Wednesday became the latest high-profile figure to call for a Greek exit.
The conference call on Wednesday came after Mr. Juncker canceled a meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Brussels. Greece’s international lenders have demanded details on how Athens plans to make up a shortfall of $430 million in required budget savings after Greek political leaders insisted on limiting cuts to pensions. Mr. Juncker said those measures had now been identified.
But officials in Brussels cautioned that big doubts remained. “We’ve seen things moving in the last few days,” said one euro zone official who was not authorized to speak publicly, “but not quickly enough. The Greeks have to help us to help them.” Another official said that there were still not enough details about the additional savings.
Nicholas Kulish reported from Berlin, and Stephen Castle from Brussels. Niki Kitsantonis contributed reporting from Athens.
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Re: New EC Thread
0:43pm UK, Wednesday February 15, 2012
Greece has agreed a further 325m euros (£270m) of spending
cuts as it tries to secure another massive EU/IMF bailout, finance
minister Evangelos Venizelos has said.
But despite Greece's assurances about this and several other key
demands on top of the 3.3bn euro (£2.7bn) package of cuts already
agreed, eurozone ministers want to put Athens under even tighter
surveillance in return for the 130bn euro (£108bn) bailout.
The finance chiefs of the 17 countries that use the single currency
held a conference call amid doubts over whether the new bailout, which
comes on top of a 110bn euro (£91bn) rescue granted in May 2010, can
ultimately save debt-laden Greece.
The ministers greeted the news that it had found extra cuts on top of
austerity measures already agreed, and also that the leaders of the
main Greek political parties will implement promised cuts and reforms
even after elections expected for April.
Mr Venizelos said meeting those demands paves the way for a deal to ease its debt burden to be announced on Monday.
Greece needs the funds to avoid bankruptcy when 14.5bn euros (£12bn) of debt repayments are due to be made on March 20.
However, in a sign of the deep distrust that has built up, Jean-Claude Juncker,
the prime minister of Luxembourg who also chairs the finance ministers'
meetings, said better surveillance mechanisms had to be set up before
new aid could be released.
Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's PM, wants better surveillance of Greece's finances
"Further considerations are necessary regarding the specific
mechanisms to strengthen the surveillance of programme implementation
and to ensure that priority is given to debt servicing," Mr Juncker
said.
The statement appeared to be a reference to a Franco-German proposal
to set up an account, separate from Greece's general budget, that would
be dedicated to repaying Greece's massive debt.
It was unclear whether this account would only manage the bailout money or whether government revenue could also be put into it.
Such an account would give the eurozone more control over what Greece
does with its money, after the country has repeatedly missed budget,
reform and privatisation targets over the past two years.
However, it could constitute an unprecedented interference into the fiscal affairs of a sovereign state in Europe.
Protests against new austerity measures in Greece
:: Read more about the eurozone crisis on our dedicated page
Greece's leaders have rejected criticism of their commitment to a
tough austerity package despite strong opposition to it among voters.
Meanwhile, the president of Greece has criticised Germany's finance
minister for "insulting" his country after he appeared to suggest the
Mediterranean nation may go bankrupt.
Greece's president Karolos Papoulias has criticised German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble
Speaking in Athens, a visibly angry President Karolos Papoulias slated Wolfgang Schaeuble and also attacked Greece's critics in the Netherlands and Finland.
Mr Papoulias' controversial comments are seen as highly unusual as he does not normally weigh in to daily political debate.
Euro Acronyms
Do you know your EFSF from your
ESM? Read our full explainer.
With the European Union's patience with Greek party politicians close
to breaking point, Mr Schaeuble has made a series of critical remarks
in recent days.
He has likened the country to a bottomless pit and said on Monday
that the eurozone was better prepared to overcome a Greek bankruptcy
than two years ago.
He also said the eurozone would do everything it could to avoid a
Greek bankruptcy, which will happen if Athens fails to secure an EU/IMF
bailout before it has to repay its debt next month.
Employees assess damage to a burned-out bank after Athens protests
But Mr Papoulias, an 82-year-old veteran of Greece's resistance
struggle against the Nazi occupation in World War Two, said: "I cannot
accept Mr Schaeuble insulting my country.
"Who is Mr Schaeuble to insult Greece? Who are the Dutch? Who are the Finnish?"
Mr Papoulias pointed out that Europeans had fought together in the
past and said they should now work together during Greece's crisis.
"We were always proud to defend not only our freedom, our country,
but Europe's freedom too," he said in a speech at the defence ministry.
Resentment of the tough German stand on Greece's failure to meet
targets set by the EU and IMF in return for financial aid has become
widespread in recent months.
Protesters burned a German flag last week and newspapers have run
computer generated pictures of Chancellor Angela Merkel in a Nazi
uniform.
Greece has agreed a further 325m euros (£270m) of spending
cuts as it tries to secure another massive EU/IMF bailout, finance
minister Evangelos Venizelos has said.
But despite Greece's assurances about this and several other key
demands on top of the 3.3bn euro (£2.7bn) package of cuts already
agreed, eurozone ministers want to put Athens under even tighter
surveillance in return for the 130bn euro (£108bn) bailout.
The finance chiefs of the 17 countries that use the single currency
held a conference call amid doubts over whether the new bailout, which
comes on top of a 110bn euro (£91bn) rescue granted in May 2010, can
ultimately save debt-laden Greece.
The ministers greeted the news that it had found extra cuts on top of
austerity measures already agreed, and also that the leaders of the
main Greek political parties will implement promised cuts and reforms
even after elections expected for April.
Mr Venizelos said meeting those demands paves the way for a deal to ease its debt burden to be announced on Monday.
Greece needs the funds to avoid bankruptcy when 14.5bn euros (£12bn) of debt repayments are due to be made on March 20.
However, in a sign of the deep distrust that has built up, Jean-Claude Juncker,
the prime minister of Luxembourg who also chairs the finance ministers'
meetings, said better surveillance mechanisms had to be set up before
new aid could be released.
Jean-Claude Juncker, Luxembourg's PM, wants better surveillance of Greece's finances
"Further considerations are necessary regarding the specific
mechanisms to strengthen the surveillance of programme implementation
and to ensure that priority is given to debt servicing," Mr Juncker
said.
The statement appeared to be a reference to a Franco-German proposal
to set up an account, separate from Greece's general budget, that would
be dedicated to repaying Greece's massive debt.
It was unclear whether this account would only manage the bailout money or whether government revenue could also be put into it.
Such an account would give the eurozone more control over what Greece
does with its money, after the country has repeatedly missed budget,
reform and privatisation targets over the past two years.
However, it could constitute an unprecedented interference into the fiscal affairs of a sovereign state in Europe.
Protests against new austerity measures in Greece
:: Read more about the eurozone crisis on our dedicated page
Greece's leaders have rejected criticism of their commitment to a
tough austerity package despite strong opposition to it among voters.
Meanwhile, the president of Greece has criticised Germany's finance
minister for "insulting" his country after he appeared to suggest the
Mediterranean nation may go bankrupt.
Greece's president Karolos Papoulias has criticised German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble
Speaking in Athens, a visibly angry President Karolos Papoulias slated Wolfgang Schaeuble and also attacked Greece's critics in the Netherlands and Finland.
Mr Papoulias' controversial comments are seen as highly unusual as he does not normally weigh in to daily political debate.
Euro Acronyms
Do you know your EFSF from your
ESM? Read our full explainer.
With the European Union's patience with Greek party politicians close
to breaking point, Mr Schaeuble has made a series of critical remarks
in recent days.
He has likened the country to a bottomless pit and said on Monday
that the eurozone was better prepared to overcome a Greek bankruptcy
than two years ago.
He also said the eurozone would do everything it could to avoid a
Greek bankruptcy, which will happen if Athens fails to secure an EU/IMF
bailout before it has to repay its debt next month.
Employees assess damage to a burned-out bank after Athens protests
But Mr Papoulias, an 82-year-old veteran of Greece's resistance
struggle against the Nazi occupation in World War Two, said: "I cannot
accept Mr Schaeuble insulting my country.
"Who is Mr Schaeuble to insult Greece? Who are the Dutch? Who are the Finnish?"
Mr Papoulias pointed out that Europeans had fought together in the
past and said they should now work together during Greece's crisis.
"We were always proud to defend not only our freedom, our country,
but Europe's freedom too," he said in a speech at the defence ministry.
Resentment of the tough German stand on Greece's failure to meet
targets set by the EU and IMF in return for financial aid has become
widespread in recent months.
Protesters burned a German flag last week and newspapers have run
computer generated pictures of Chancellor Angela Merkel in a Nazi
uniform.
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Re: New EC Thread
16 February 2012
Last updated at 07:24
Greece bailout: Eurozone calls for tighter oversight
People in Athens give their view on the country's situation
Continue reading the main story
Global Economy
Eurozone
finance ministers have demanded much greater oversight of Greece's
economy in return for a 130bn-euro (£110bn; $170bn) bailout package.
In a three-hour conference call on Wednesday, the ministers scrutinised Greece's planned budget cuts.
The single currency bloc praised Greece's "substantial
progress", but demanded more detail, including a full timeline for
implementing the measures.
A decision on the bailout is expected to be finalised on Monday.
Greece faces a looming deadline in mid-March when it needs to make repayments on a 14.5bn-euro bond, or face bankruptcy.
The EU and IMF have demanded that Greece make deep cuts and restructure its economy in return for the bailout.
'Bottomless pit'
Speaking after a conference call between the 17 eurozone
finance ministers on Wednesday, Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the
so-called Eurogroup, praised the progress Greece had made.
But he said more work was needed to strengthen oversight of how Greece would implement its austerity plans.
Continue reading the main story Analysis
Chris Morris
BBC News, Brussels
Some countries are demanding that the Greek economy must be
put under much tighter surveillance, giving the eurozone far more
control over what Greece does with its money.
That reflects scepticism that Greece will be willing or able
to deliver on its promises of reform. In return, angry comments have
emerged from Athens about demands made in Berlin and elsewhere.
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos suggested that
some countries want to see Greece leave the eurozone. Chancellor Merkel
still says she wants Greece in, not least because she fears the
alternative.
But if the eurozone manages to strengthen its bailout fund in
the next few months, creating a more robust firewall to protect
countries like Italy and Spain, then opinion could harden further. This
current phase of the crisis could be Greece's last chance to stay in the
euro-club.
The BBC's Chris Morris in
Brussels says the call reflects scepticism that Greece is willing or
able to deliver on its promises of reform.
The "troika" of institutional lenders - the EU, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) -
had been demanding that Greece identify 325m euros of further spending
cuts.
Mr Juncker said work on this had been carried out, including a timetable for implementation.
The ministers also insisted that the major Greek political
parties promise in writing to implement the cuts, regardless of who wins
a general election scheduled for April.
Leaders of the two main parties have now signed letters committing them to enacting the changes.
Meanwhile, President Karolos Papoulias hit out at German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, whose comments during the talks
stirred anger in Greece.
"I do not accept having my country taunted by Mr Schaeuble, as a Greek I do not accept it," Mr Papoulias said.
Earlier, Mr Schaeuble said: "We can help, but we are not going to pour money into a bottomless pit."
Last updated at 07:24
Greece bailout: Eurozone calls for tighter oversight
People in Athens give their view on the country's situation
Continue reading the main story
Global Economy
Europe struck by growth slowdown
Germany: Reasons to be cheerful
Q&A: Greek debt crisis
Timeline of crisis
Eurozone
finance ministers have demanded much greater oversight of Greece's
economy in return for a 130bn-euro (£110bn; $170bn) bailout package.
In a three-hour conference call on Wednesday, the ministers scrutinised Greece's planned budget cuts.
The single currency bloc praised Greece's "substantial
progress", but demanded more detail, including a full timeline for
implementing the measures.
A decision on the bailout is expected to be finalised on Monday.
Greece faces a looming deadline in mid-March when it needs to make repayments on a 14.5bn-euro bond, or face bankruptcy.
The EU and IMF have demanded that Greece make deep cuts and restructure its economy in return for the bailout.
'Bottomless pit'
Speaking after a conference call between the 17 eurozone
finance ministers on Wednesday, Jean-Claude Juncker, head of the
so-called Eurogroup, praised the progress Greece had made.
But he said more work was needed to strengthen oversight of how Greece would implement its austerity plans.
Continue reading the main story Analysis
Chris Morris
BBC News, Brussels
Some countries are demanding that the Greek economy must be
put under much tighter surveillance, giving the eurozone far more
control over what Greece does with its money.
That reflects scepticism that Greece will be willing or able
to deliver on its promises of reform. In return, angry comments have
emerged from Athens about demands made in Berlin and elsewhere.
Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos suggested that
some countries want to see Greece leave the eurozone. Chancellor Merkel
still says she wants Greece in, not least because she fears the
alternative.
But if the eurozone manages to strengthen its bailout fund in
the next few months, creating a more robust firewall to protect
countries like Italy and Spain, then opinion could harden further. This
current phase of the crisis could be Greece's last chance to stay in the
euro-club.
The BBC's Chris Morris in
Brussels says the call reflects scepticism that Greece is willing or
able to deliver on its promises of reform.
The "troika" of institutional lenders - the EU, the
International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the European Central Bank (ECB) -
had been demanding that Greece identify 325m euros of further spending
cuts.
Mr Juncker said work on this had been carried out, including a timetable for implementation.
The ministers also insisted that the major Greek political
parties promise in writing to implement the cuts, regardless of who wins
a general election scheduled for April.
Leaders of the two main parties have now signed letters committing them to enacting the changes.
Meanwhile, President Karolos Papoulias hit out at German
Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, whose comments during the talks
stirred anger in Greece.
"I do not accept having my country taunted by Mr Schaeuble, as a Greek I do not accept it," Mr Papoulias said.
Earlier, Mr Schaeuble said: "We can help, but we are not going to pour money into a bottomless pit."
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Germany
Brussels glosses over German sins
In its report on the EU economy, the
European Commission has avoided all criticism of Germany, despite the
surplus in its trade balance, considered excessive by other countries,
especially the most indebted.
Original article in Financial Times Deutschland
de
Financial Times Deutschland Hamburg
Italy
Olympics, Monti's great refusal
The Italian government has decided not to
provide financial guarantees for Rome's 2020 Olympics bid because of
"the impossibility of predicting the ultimate cost" of organising the
event. Original article in La Repubblica
it
Brussels glosses over German sins
In its report on the EU economy, the
European Commission has avoided all criticism of Germany, despite the
surplus in its trade balance, considered excessive by other countries,
especially the most indebted.
Original article in Financial Times Deutschland
de
Financial Times Deutschland Hamburg
Italy
Olympics, Monti's great refusal
The Italian government has decided not to
provide financial guarantees for Rome's 2020 Olympics bid because of
"the impossibility of predicting the ultimate cost" of organising the
event. Original article in La Repubblica
it
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Member States
Greece
“Five euros left and starting to panic”
16 February 2012
To Vima
Athens
An employee of a public housing organisation to be suppressed by the government threatens to jump. Athens, February 15, 2012
AFP
In debt and suffering from anxiety and depression, many
Greeks are turning to Ekpizo help centres for moral support. To Vima
reports from a group therapy session in Athens.
Elli Ismailidou
As though they were afraid to sit down in the circle of chairs
set out for the group therapy session, the harassed looking
participants lean against the walls exchanging meek greetings. Perhaps
they are put off by the prospect of admitting that they can no longer
cope, that their debts have driven them to despair.
The icy atmosphere warms slightly when the facilitator finally arrives. It is 6 PM at the Ekpizo
centre in downtown Athens which offers support to over-indebted
consumers who can no longer make ends meet. “I have heard the same story
so many times over the last 18 months,” says Lila Linardatou who works
for Ekipzo.
A legal graduate, she offers advice to people attempting renegotiate
payment schedules with their banks. “Our goal is to avoid the worst,”
she says. Driven to the brink by the crisis, more than 6,000
individuals have already sought assistance from Ekipzo, an organisation
staffed by lawyers, psychiatrists and psychologists, all of whom are
volunteers.
The minutes go by and the participants seem more at ease. As a
group, they bring together a wide range of experiences of
over-indebtedness. Consumers who use one credit card to fund another,
breadwinners who sink “up to their necks” in debt when they run into
health problems, people who live in impossible circumstances hoping for
a way out that they never find.
Psychotherapy session does not seek to attribute blame
“The situation is unbearable. The loan companies are calling 10
times a day to threaten us,” says Konstantinos Venerdos who recently
retired for health reasons. “I asked for an out of court settlement,
but the banks are ignoring me. I only have five euros until the month,
and I’m starting to panic. I’ve thought of committing suicide. But I
also think about my son. What will happen to him if I give up the
ghost?” he says.
Venerdos’ dark thoughts are not unusual. “Over the last few months,
four members of the group have committed suicide and dozens of others
are only holding on with help from medication. We have to do something
or there will be more victims,” says another Ekipzo employee Mikela
Christodoulou.
Forced to contend with overwhelming stress, those who seek help from
Ekipzo also suffer from health problems, more often than not caused by
psychological distress, and in particular heart and stomach problems…
“I have just been diagnosed with an an ulcer,” says Dimitri. “All my
life, I never owed a drachma to anyone. Today, I can’t pay off my
loan,” says the former business owner who does not want us to print his
surname. When the crisis grew worse last year, he was forced to close
down his shop.
The psychotherapy session does not seek to attribute blame, but
responsibility should nonetheless be acknowledged: “I admit that I went
into a tailspin, using one credit card to fund another,” explains
Mario, a civil servant. “With all the attractive offers from the banks,
I ended up with 20 different cards. But then my salary was cut several
times, and now I am afraid I will wind up on the street.”
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NOT SURE IF ALREADY MENTIONED,THERE ARE FEARS OF `BOAT PEOPLE' FLEEING GREECE IN BOATS WITH EUROS IF GREECE DEFAULTS.
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Europe will be saved by nations
16 February 2012
Beppe Giacobbe
With their refusal to build a federal Europe around the single currency, politicians have surrendered power to the economy. To win back this power and to share it with citizens, a Polish historian argues that they should construct a federation of nations.
Marek BeylinAs Jacques Delors, one of the initiators of the common currency in the 1990s, remarked, a united Europe is a UPO (an unidentified political object). At the time Delors was a describing a Europe that was uncertain about which path to take towards integration: unification of markets, or the construction of a political union to pave the way for a future federation. Our current situation has resulted from the choice made by the Union in response to these considerations.
Europe opted for the market, which it assumed would provide a satisfactory form of integration. In other words, we allowed ourselves to be beguiled by the illusion that the common market would take charge of a task that Europe’s politicians were not ready to carry out, and create a political union through the establishment of economic links.
With this in mind, we chose not to establish strong political institutions. Not surprisingly, once the crisis struck, the union turned out to be very vulnerable politically. At the same time, the markets, which were supposed to favour its integration, began to trample it into the ground.
Widening divide between strong and weak countries
The privileging of the market over politics has become an Achilles heel for the EU that has prevented it from effectively responding to the crisis, and even more importantly from planning its future. After all, is politics not a means to take control of the future? Today, we have no hopeful vision for the future of Europe, but we should bear in mind that this state of affairs has not been caused by the crisis.
The EU has always had a tendency to avoid the issue of its own transformation. In the pre-crisis era, there was no reason to interfere with a mechanism that was more or less working, especially when European stability was sustained by economic growth. We had the impression that time had stopped and was under our control. There was no need to plan for the future because it was going to be a simple extension of the present.
However, concluding that everything is under control is often the first step to becoming a victim. This is one of the more well-known lessons of history, but one that has still not been assimilated by European leaders especially in the light of the union’s response to the crisis, which increasingly appears to be a recipe for political catastrophe.
The union only offers slow responses to immediate problems, and is careful to avoid taking the initiative in its bid to show that for Europe’s main leaders it remains a single entity. However, today this effort is increasingly strained by a widening divide between strong and weak countries and the EU’s centre and periphery.
European Union no longer offers the guarantee of a decent stable existence
Of course, the politicians have no desire to see the EU break up. They know only too well that this would be a disaster for civilisation. But they have not succeeded in setting aside a mode of action that they themselves believe to be outdated. Of course, they say they want to calm the markets, but without changing any underlying mechanisms so that once the crisis has been allayed the markets will once again take charge of politics and political integration.
The major problem in our European societies is the decline of government by political leaders, which has created a power vacuum. Our democracy is dispersed and atomised to the point where political leaders have trouble deciphering the aspirations of citizens, which are also chaotic and atomised. As a result, it is increasingly difficult to determine clear objectives for a community of citizens.
While the sense of dislocation between leaders and citizens has continued to grow, the power that has been abandoned by politicians has not found its way back into the hands of citizens. The union is a clear expression of this trend: not only has it lost its existing objectives, and thus become a land without a future, but worse still, for many of its citizens it has become the land of broken promises.
With the dramatic increase in unemployment and in particular unemployment among young people, the European Union no longer offers the guarantee of a decent stable existence. The European welfare state, one of the pillars of traditional democracy is progressively – and in some cases rapidly – being dismantled.
Restoring democracy in the union
Amid the anger prompted by growing inequality, poverty and plunging living standards have been observed in societies that were hitherto largely spared by the crisis.
Today we are faced with a complete lack of ideas on how to emerge from this chaos unscathed. In such a situation, returning to our roots – and in this case, that means the roots of the European Union – is the best policy. The political project that was initially supposed to unite the continent was a united Europe in the form of a federation of nations: one that was created both by nations and plans for the future, as philosopher Marcel Gauchet has pointed out.
What we have to do now is to construct that federation of nations. Such a structure would entrust significant powers under the supervision of nations to the EU. A major reversal of the relationships with the Union, which is no longer under the democratic control of peoples, is essential. United Europe was built on the will of peoples, but it has turned away from that will, and it has no hope of survival without it.
The challenge we face is not only one of restoring economic growth, but also, and more importantly one of restoring democracy in the union. It is a challenge that can only be addressed by the citizens of Europe. For this to happen, the citizens of Europe will have to be convinced that such an undertaking is worthwhile and that their efforts will be rewarded by fairer policies and a brighter future.
16 February 2012
Beppe Giacobbe
With their refusal to build a federal Europe around the single currency, politicians have surrendered power to the economy. To win back this power and to share it with citizens, a Polish historian argues that they should construct a federation of nations.
Marek BeylinAs Jacques Delors, one of the initiators of the common currency in the 1990s, remarked, a united Europe is a UPO (an unidentified political object). At the time Delors was a describing a Europe that was uncertain about which path to take towards integration: unification of markets, or the construction of a political union to pave the way for a future federation. Our current situation has resulted from the choice made by the Union in response to these considerations.
Europe opted for the market, which it assumed would provide a satisfactory form of integration. In other words, we allowed ourselves to be beguiled by the illusion that the common market would take charge of a task that Europe’s politicians were not ready to carry out, and create a political union through the establishment of economic links.
With this in mind, we chose not to establish strong political institutions. Not surprisingly, once the crisis struck, the union turned out to be very vulnerable politically. At the same time, the markets, which were supposed to favour its integration, began to trample it into the ground.
Widening divide between strong and weak countries
The privileging of the market over politics has become an Achilles heel for the EU that has prevented it from effectively responding to the crisis, and even more importantly from planning its future. After all, is politics not a means to take control of the future? Today, we have no hopeful vision for the future of Europe, but we should bear in mind that this state of affairs has not been caused by the crisis.
The EU has always had a tendency to avoid the issue of its own transformation. In the pre-crisis era, there was no reason to interfere with a mechanism that was more or less working, especially when European stability was sustained by economic growth. We had the impression that time had stopped and was under our control. There was no need to plan for the future because it was going to be a simple extension of the present.
However, concluding that everything is under control is often the first step to becoming a victim. This is one of the more well-known lessons of history, but one that has still not been assimilated by European leaders especially in the light of the union’s response to the crisis, which increasingly appears to be a recipe for political catastrophe.
The union only offers slow responses to immediate problems, and is careful to avoid taking the initiative in its bid to show that for Europe’s main leaders it remains a single entity. However, today this effort is increasingly strained by a widening divide between strong and weak countries and the EU’s centre and periphery.
European Union no longer offers the guarantee of a decent stable existence
Of course, the politicians have no desire to see the EU break up. They know only too well that this would be a disaster for civilisation. But they have not succeeded in setting aside a mode of action that they themselves believe to be outdated. Of course, they say they want to calm the markets, but without changing any underlying mechanisms so that once the crisis has been allayed the markets will once again take charge of politics and political integration.
The major problem in our European societies is the decline of government by political leaders, which has created a power vacuum. Our democracy is dispersed and atomised to the point where political leaders have trouble deciphering the aspirations of citizens, which are also chaotic and atomised. As a result, it is increasingly difficult to determine clear objectives for a community of citizens.
While the sense of dislocation between leaders and citizens has continued to grow, the power that has been abandoned by politicians has not found its way back into the hands of citizens. The union is a clear expression of this trend: not only has it lost its existing objectives, and thus become a land without a future, but worse still, for many of its citizens it has become the land of broken promises.
With the dramatic increase in unemployment and in particular unemployment among young people, the European Union no longer offers the guarantee of a decent stable existence. The European welfare state, one of the pillars of traditional democracy is progressively – and in some cases rapidly – being dismantled.
Restoring democracy in the union
Amid the anger prompted by growing inequality, poverty and plunging living standards have been observed in societies that were hitherto largely spared by the crisis.
Today we are faced with a complete lack of ideas on how to emerge from this chaos unscathed. In such a situation, returning to our roots – and in this case, that means the roots of the European Union – is the best policy. The political project that was initially supposed to unite the continent was a united Europe in the form of a federation of nations: one that was created both by nations and plans for the future, as philosopher Marcel Gauchet has pointed out.
What we have to do now is to construct that federation of nations. Such a structure would entrust significant powers under the supervision of nations to the EU. A major reversal of the relationships with the Union, which is no longer under the democratic control of peoples, is essential. United Europe was built on the will of peoples, but it has turned away from that will, and it has no hope of survival without it.
The challenge we face is not only one of restoring economic growth, but also, and more importantly one of restoring democracy in the union. It is a challenge that can only be addressed by the citizens of Europe. For this to happen, the citizens of Europe will have to be convinced that such an undertaking is worthwhile and that their efforts will be rewarded by fairer policies and a brighter future.
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Angela Merkel was to meet Monti in Italy this morning to discuss the crisis because as an Economist she considers his experience useful but the meeting
has been cancelled .
Just announced that the German President will make an announcement lated this morning. Wolfe is accused of accepting illicit gifts before he became
President, he tried to get a ban on Newspapers reporting m but it is anticipated he will resign. This is the second President lost on Merkel's watch and
she could well have done without this at this critical time.
Long term finance has altered the Markets opinion who have now accepted there is a 90% chance of a Greek default.
Germany seeks to avoid a two step vote on the Greek bail out plan say Lawmakers.
The Euro may fall to a 2 year low.
The ECB is said to be swapping the existing Bonds for new Bonds.
Steve King of HSBC says we are facing economic uncertainty on the grandest of scales. He says while most Countries are making Austerity cuts ,
Portugal is a good example, as was Ireland, why were ECB bond purchases bought by these Countries not had their interest reduced? Also, how can
the Troika determne that the GDP of 120% be set in stone if Greece adheres to the austerity measures?
All these projections are pointless when the World is in crisis and it is believed that this crisis has highlighted the fact that no one really knows how to handle the Greek crisis and are now relying on China, which will want it's pound of flesh , to help financially.
has been cancelled .
Just announced that the German President will make an announcement lated this morning. Wolfe is accused of accepting illicit gifts before he became
President, he tried to get a ban on Newspapers reporting m but it is anticipated he will resign. This is the second President lost on Merkel's watch and
she could well have done without this at this critical time.
Long term finance has altered the Markets opinion who have now accepted there is a 90% chance of a Greek default.
Germany seeks to avoid a two step vote on the Greek bail out plan say Lawmakers.
The Euro may fall to a 2 year low.
The ECB is said to be swapping the existing Bonds for new Bonds.
Steve King of HSBC says we are facing economic uncertainty on the grandest of scales. He says while most Countries are making Austerity cuts ,
Portugal is a good example, as was Ireland, why were ECB bond purchases bought by these Countries not had their interest reduced? Also, how can
the Troika determne that the GDP of 120% be set in stone if Greece adheres to the austerity measures?
All these projections are pointless when the World is in crisis and it is believed that this crisis has highlighted the fact that no one really knows how to handle the Greek crisis and are now relying on China, which will want it's pound of flesh , to help financially.
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Wulffe the German President has resigned, he was hand picked by Merkel and this has affected her standing.
If Sarkozy loses, which looks likely because Allande is in the lead , again Merrkel will have lost credibility.
Citibank says they keep finding more money is needed to bail out Greece and the Troika are losing credibility, the rest of the World is fed up with all the wrangling and wonders what will happen if and when Greece is given the loan and another Country , maybe Portugal needs a bail out.
If Sarkozy loses, which looks likely because Allande is in the lead , again Merrkel will have lost credibility.
Citibank says they keep finding more money is needed to bail out Greece and the Troika are losing credibility, the rest of the World is fed up with all the wrangling and wonders what will happen if and when Greece is given the loan and another Country , maybe Portugal needs a bail out.
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Ideas
Eurozone crisis
How Brussels is destroying Greece
17 February 2012
The Daily Telegraph
London
Comment 1
EU
Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn giving a press
conference on the Autumn Economic Forecast, November 2011, Brussels.
AFP
Sunk into a violent depression, Greece is being bled dry
by an “incompetent” EU and its “callous” Economic and Monetary Affairs
Commissioner Olli Rehn, accuses Peter Oborne, in a vehement broadside.
Peter Oborne
For all of my adult life, support for the European Union has been
seen as the mark of a civilised, reasonable and above all compassionate
politician. It has guaranteed him or her access to leader columns, TV
studios, lavish expense accounts and overseas trips.
The reason for this special treatment is that the British
establishment has tended to view the EU as perhaps a little incompetent
and corrupt, but certainly benign and generally a force for good in a
troubled world. This attitude is becoming harder and harder to sustain,
as this partnership of nations is suddenly starting to look very nasty
indeed: a brutal oppressor that is scornful of democracy, national
identity and the livelihoods of ordinary people.
The turning point may have come this week with the latest
intervention by Brussels: bureaucrats are threatening to bankrupt an
entire country unless opposition parties promise to support the
EU-backed austerity plan.
Let’s put the Greek problem in its proper perspective. Britain’s
Great Depression in the Thirties has become part of our national myth.
It was the era of soup kitchens, mass unemployment and the Jarrow March,
immortalised in George Orwell’s wonderful novels and still remembered
in Labour Party rhetoric.
Yet the fall in national output during the Depression – from peak to
trough – was never more than 10 per cent. In Greece, gross domestic
product is already down about 13 per cent since 2008, and according to
experts is likely to fall a further 7 per cent by the end of this year.
In other words, by this Christmas, Greece’s depression will have been
twice as deep as the infamous economic catastrophe that struck Britain
80 years ago.
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The risk to the Euro is that volatility is still going to affect the currency.
The ECB can sort out the Monetary side but the Sovereign side needs sorting as well.
bgc says too many parts in the Greek saga and their spokeswoman thinks it won't all come together on Monday.
There is concern about the way Draghi is considering replacing the existing Bonds with new ones that Bond interest will be lower for private Bondholders
and they are waiting to see exactly what his plan entails.
Interestingly a Chinese Trade Minister will visit Ireland next week, there is E8 billion trade between the two Countries .
The ECB can sort out the Monetary side but the Sovereign side needs sorting as well.
bgc says too many parts in the Greek saga and their spokeswoman thinks it won't all come together on Monday.
There is concern about the way Draghi is considering replacing the existing Bonds with new ones that Bond interest will be lower for private Bondholders
and they are waiting to see exactly what his plan entails.
Interestingly a Chinese Trade Minister will visit Ireland next week, there is E8 billion trade between the two Countries .
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Member States
Eurozone crisis
Greece 1858 – plus ça change
17 February 2012
Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung
Frankfurt
"The Acropolis" by David Roberts (1796-1864). Oil on canvas, David David Gallery, Philadelphia.
Crippled by debt, propped up by European powers,
handicapped by an ineffective administration: uncompromising diagnoses
of Greece’s ills are not new. The text that follows, drafted by 19th
century French writer Edmond About, has re-emerged in the European
press.
Edmond About
Greece is the only known example of a country that has lived in
bankruptcy since the day that it was born. If such a situation were to
prevail in France or England for just one year, we would see terrible
catastrophes. Greece has peaceably lived with bankruptcy for more than
20 years. All of the country’s budgets, from the very first to the one
just out, have been in deficit.
In civilised countries, when the sum of revenues is not sufficient
to cover the budget for expenditure, the difference is made up by an
internal loan. However, the Greek government has never tried to obtain
such a loan and any attempt to do so would have been in vain.
The powers that protect Greece have been obliged to guarantee the
solvency of the Greek state so that it can negotiate with external
lenders. But the loans thereby obtained have been squandered by the
government without any benefit to the country: and now that this money
has been spent, the guarantors have no other option but to have the
good grace to pay the interest, which Greece cannot reimburse.
Wealthy property owners succeed in frustrating the state
Today, the country has given up all hope of paying off its debts.
And if the three powers continue to pay indefinitely in its stead,
Greece will not be much better off because its outgoings will always be
greater than its income.
Greece is the only civilised state where income tax is paid in kind.
Money is so rare in the countryside that there was no option but to
adopt this method of collection. The government initially appointed tax
collectors who courageously set about their task, but thereafter
failed to fulfill their obligations to the state, which was powerless
to constrain them. Now that the state itself has taken charge of the
collection of tax, the costs have proved considerably greater while the
income obtained has barely increased.
The taxpayers have followed the example of the tax collectors: they
do not pay. Wealthy property owners, who wield significant influence,
succeed in frustrating the state by bribing or intimidating its agents.
The agents, who are poorly paid and may be dismissed at every change
of minister, do not defend the interests of the state as they do in our
country.
Their sole aim is to cultivate the rich and powerful and to line
their pockets in the process. As for the small property owners, who are
called on to pay for their wealthy neighbours, when they are not
protected by their own poverty, they have powerful friends to ensure
that their goods may not be seized.
In Greece, the law is not the intractable entity that we know. Tax
collectors are careful to listen to the taxpayers, sure in the knowledge
that when formality has been swept aside by brotherly feeling, it will
be easy to reach agreement. The Greeks know each other very well and
like each other a little. But they have virtually no acquaintance with
the abstract being we call a state, which they do not like at all.
Finally, tax collectors are prudent: they know they should avoid
exasperating their countrymen, that there are bad stretches on the road
home and that accidents can happen.
Loans are only granted to governments believed honest enough
Nomadic taxpayers (shepherds, woodcutters, coalmen and fishermen)
have made it a point of honnor to avoid paying any tax. They believe,
as they did in the time of the Turks, that their masters are their
enemies and that a man’s most noble right is the right to hold on to
his money. It is for this reason that until 1846, Greek ministers of
finance produced two revenue budgets. One, the current fiscal year
budget, indicated the sums the government ought to receive; the other,
the administrative budget, indicated what it hoped to receive.
And as finance ministers are more prone to errors in favour of the
state when calculating probable resources, they also had to produce a
third budget detailing the sums that the government was sure to
collect. For example, in 1845 for the produce of olive trees on public
land, which is regularly collected from private taxpayers, the minister
noted the sum of 441,800 drachma in the budget for the current fiscal
year. He was hoping (that is to say in the administrative budget) that
the state would in fact receive 61,500 drachma.
However, this hope was in itself presumptuous because in the
preceding year, the revenue to the state generated by this item did not
amount to 441,800 drachma, or even 61,500 drachma, but only 4,457
drachma and 31 lepta, that is to say approximately one percent of the
amount due to the state. In 1846, the minister of finance decided not
to draft an administrative budget and the custom fell into disuse.
Greece’s outgoings are as follows: the servicing of public debt
(both internal and external), the civil list, funding for parliament
and government ministries, collection and administration costs, and
miscellaneous costs.
If I had to advise a government that had doubts about its own
strength, its credit, the affection of its supporters and the
prosperity of the country, I would say: “By all means take out a loan.”
Loans are only granted to governments that are well established.
Loans are only granted to governments that are believed to honest
enough to honour their commitments, and loans are only granted to
governments that lenders want to maintain in office. Nowhere in the
world does the opposition lend to the government. Finally, lenders can
only grant loans when they have the necessary funds themselves.
Translated from the original French text by Mark McGovern
Inventory
A state ever absent
Well over a hundred and fifty years later, Die Zeit
repeats the truths written by the French visitor to Greece Edmond
About, who described the lack of communication in the Greek government
and the abnormal number of employees in an obsolete state.
The Brussels authorities will do everything they can to save Greece, assures Die Zeit, but these reforms will be futile and ineffective, as Greece has not built a truly modern state structure.
The concept of “state-building” is familiar primarily in regions
devastated by war. Now, though, the concept applies to a country inside
the European Union. For the state that the Union wants to shield from
the threat of bankruptcy does not exist
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10:28am UK, Tuesday February 14, 2012
Robert Nisbet, Europe correspondent
A senior Greek politician who rebelled in Sunday's explosive vote over more austerity says it will harm, not help, the country.
Louka Katseli, the former labour minister in George Papandreou's
cabinet told Sky News that the tough conditions attached by
international creditors will shrink the country's economy still further.
The leading socialist says the country is being punished by other eurozone countries which want to see labour protections removed in all member states.
"There is a political view which says that here are these Greeks that
are lazy do not do their homework that have not produced the results
that we wanted," she said.
"Somehow we make them suffer even further, and I think this attitude
is a very dangerous attitude for politics, for Europe and for
democracy."
She delivered what she believes is the worst-case scenario.
Louka Katseli believes the bailout terms will do more harm than good
"We have tied our hands with this agreement to actually provide to
our lenders what they wanted, (but) the lenders will then turn around
and say: 'You are on your own right now, we have already safeguarded
what we need to safeguard'."
"Then in Greece we will have a deep recession, high unemployment and social unrest," she added.
Louka Katseli broke her silence as workers started repairing broken glass and riot scarred buildings in the centre of Athens.
Builders and glaziers at least are experiencing a boom in business in these recession years.
We spotted one shop owner staring tearfully through the shattered window of his small coffee shop.
Dimitris Drivas doesn't run a Starbucks franchise - his takings
amount to 20 euros a day, but the cafe was still looted of beers and
pennies.
"Anger is one thing, but taking it out on small shopkeepers like myself, I don't understand it," he told us.
"I can understand anger against politicians but why against people like us?"
In all, 50 police and 70 protesters were injured but the after-effects of the latest trouble are emotional, too.
A building burns during riots against the austerity measures
:: Find out more on the eurozone crisis from our dedicated channel.
Stelios Stephanou is the director of the trust which runs the
landmark Attikon Cinema. He watched it burn on Sunday, filming the
flames on his mobile phone after braving the pitched battles in the
streets.
He says they plan to rebuild it, but worries that Greeks are now seen
as international pariahs, dragging down the global economy.
"(Our relatives) come from universities and they come from schools
abroad and people look at them as if they are contaminated or ill. This
is not right," he told us
Robert Nisbet, Europe correspondent
A senior Greek politician who rebelled in Sunday's explosive vote over more austerity says it will harm, not help, the country.
Louka Katseli, the former labour minister in George Papandreou's
cabinet told Sky News that the tough conditions attached by
international creditors will shrink the country's economy still further.
The leading socialist says the country is being punished by other eurozone countries which want to see labour protections removed in all member states.
"There is a political view which says that here are these Greeks that
are lazy do not do their homework that have not produced the results
that we wanted," she said.
"Somehow we make them suffer even further, and I think this attitude
is a very dangerous attitude for politics, for Europe and for
democracy."
She delivered what she believes is the worst-case scenario.
Louka Katseli believes the bailout terms will do more harm than good
"We have tied our hands with this agreement to actually provide to
our lenders what they wanted, (but) the lenders will then turn around
and say: 'You are on your own right now, we have already safeguarded
what we need to safeguard'."
"Then in Greece we will have a deep recession, high unemployment and social unrest," she added.
Louka Katseli broke her silence as workers started repairing broken glass and riot scarred buildings in the centre of Athens.
Builders and glaziers at least are experiencing a boom in business in these recession years.
We spotted one shop owner staring tearfully through the shattered window of his small coffee shop.
Dimitris Drivas doesn't run a Starbucks franchise - his takings
amount to 20 euros a day, but the cafe was still looted of beers and
pennies.
"Anger is one thing, but taking it out on small shopkeepers like myself, I don't understand it," he told us.
"I can understand anger against politicians but why against people like us?"
In all, 50 police and 70 protesters were injured but the after-effects of the latest trouble are emotional, too.
A building burns during riots against the austerity measures
:: Find out more on the eurozone crisis from our dedicated channel.
Stelios Stephanou is the director of the trust which runs the
landmark Attikon Cinema. He watched it burn on Sunday, filming the
flames on his mobile phone after braving the pitched battles in the
streets.
He says they plan to rebuild it, but worries that Greeks are now seen
as international pariahs, dragging down the global economy.
"(Our relatives) come from universities and they come from schools
abroad and people look at them as if they are contaminated or ill. This
is not right," he told us
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Euro Crisis: China To Ride To The Rescue?
Europe's top two officials are in Beijing for a two-day summit with the eurozone crisis topping the agenda
5:52pm UK, Tuesday February 14, 2012
China has indicated it is ready to step up its efforts to
help resolve Europe's debt crisis, amid warnings an escalation would
seriously harm its own economy.
Following a meeting in Beijing with EU president Herman Van Rompuy
and European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso, China's premier
Wen Jiabao said he wanted to see Europe - its biggest trading partner -
"maintain stability and prosperity".
He said China was considering using Europe's bailout funds to help address the sovereign crisis but did not elaborate.
European leaders last year approached China, which holds the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, to invest in a bailout fund to rescue debt-stricken states.
EU leaders will discuss in March whether to boost the size of the
500bn euro (£420bn) European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the permanent
rescue fund due to begin operating in July.
The euro crisis has the potential to halve Chinese economic growth
There has been speculation that China will contribute 100bn euro (£84bn) to the pot but no announcement is seen as imminent.
China has made clear its growing concerns over the crisis in Europe,
repeatedly urging EU leaders to get a grip on the situation, which the
foreign ministry said this week had reached a "critical juncture".
The International Monetary Fund had previously warned that a deterioration could halve China's own economic growth this year.
Greece is the most pressing concern.
But Eurozone finance ministers have cancelled a meeting scheduled for
Wednesday to discuss whether the latest austerity measures, agreed by
political leaders in Athens, go far enough to meet strict qualification
criteria for a second bailout, worth 130bn euro (£110bn).
Public fury at austerity sparked riots in Athens last weekend
Athens needs the cash to avoid defaulting on its debts when key bills are due on March 20 but the overall price for securing the money sparked a new round of riots on the streets of Athens.
The extent of the impact of austerity on Greece was laid bare when
official figures showed the Greek economy continued to contract at an
alarming level in the final quarter of 2011.
Output fell 7% in the three months compared to the same period in 2010.
It is expected that figures for the eurozone as a whole due on
Wednesday will show GDP contracted by 0.4% in the final quarter of 2011,
following growth of 0.1% in the previous quarter.
Your Comments
Sort comments by: Newest Oldest Recommended
Posted by: Venturo on February 15, 2012 10:56 AM
Posted by: No.1 Chauffeur on February 15, 2012 10:02 AM
Posted by: Kemmuel on February 15, 2012 2:20 AM
Posted by: fedupspark from south west scotland on February 14, 2012 7:33 PM
Posted by: larrycat on February 14, 2012 7:03 PM
Posted by: larrycat on February 14, 2012 6:58 PM
Posted by: BingoBango on February 14, 2012 6:21 PM
Posted by: unknown1 on February 14, 2012 5:42 PM
Posted by: neilly from Scotland on February 14, 2012 5:34 PM
Posted by: Marley's Ghost on February 14, 2012 5:17 PM
Europe's top two officials are in Beijing for a two-day summit with the eurozone crisis topping the agenda
5:52pm UK, Tuesday February 14, 2012
China has indicated it is ready to step up its efforts to
help resolve Europe's debt crisis, amid warnings an escalation would
seriously harm its own economy.
Following a meeting in Beijing with EU president Herman Van Rompuy
and European Commission president Jose Manuel Barroso, China's premier
Wen Jiabao said he wanted to see Europe - its biggest trading partner -
"maintain stability and prosperity".
He said China was considering using Europe's bailout funds to help address the sovereign crisis but did not elaborate.
European leaders last year approached China, which holds the world's largest foreign exchange reserves, to invest in a bailout fund to rescue debt-stricken states.
EU leaders will discuss in March whether to boost the size of the
500bn euro (£420bn) European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the permanent
rescue fund due to begin operating in July.
The euro crisis has the potential to halve Chinese economic growth
There has been speculation that China will contribute 100bn euro (£84bn) to the pot but no announcement is seen as imminent.
China has made clear its growing concerns over the crisis in Europe,
repeatedly urging EU leaders to get a grip on the situation, which the
foreign ministry said this week had reached a "critical juncture".
The International Monetary Fund had previously warned that a deterioration could halve China's own economic growth this year.
Greece is the most pressing concern.
But Eurozone finance ministers have cancelled a meeting scheduled for
Wednesday to discuss whether the latest austerity measures, agreed by
political leaders in Athens, go far enough to meet strict qualification
criteria for a second bailout, worth 130bn euro (£110bn).
Public fury at austerity sparked riots in Athens last weekend
Athens needs the cash to avoid defaulting on its debts when key bills are due on March 20 but the overall price for securing the money sparked a new round of riots on the streets of Athens.
The extent of the impact of austerity on Greece was laid bare when
official figures showed the Greek economy continued to contract at an
alarming level in the final quarter of 2011.
Output fell 7% in the three months compared to the same period in 2010.
It is expected that figures for the eurozone as a whole due on
Wednesday will show GDP contracted by 0.4% in the final quarter of 2011,
following growth of 0.1% in the previous quarter.
Your Comments
Sort comments by: Newest Oldest Recommended
Posted by: Venturo on February 15, 2012 10:56 AM
I
don't see the problem with China putting in the money, if the Eurozone
continues to collapse and people are made poorer they will buy less
goods and we all know everything is made in China - so they would feel
the pain.
With more countries now encouraging manufacturing in the own country and
wages remaining low China can see the long view of losing its position
as wages in China are increasing massively thus making it less
competitive.
They are not stupid.
Posted by: No.1 Chauffeur on February 15, 2012 10:02 AM
Is China going to give us back the Money The British Government Has Given To Them In The Form Of AID?
Posted by: Kemmuel on February 15, 2012 2:20 AM
An
economy and inflation controlled by the Chinese government and who's
bank is or will be controlled by Goldman Sachs is going to help the euro
out... Does that mean China will get more manufacturing contracts from
Europe and will jobs go down the drain, that is a thought?
Posted by: fedupspark from south west scotland on February 14, 2012 7:33 PM
Does this mean the € will be replaced with the Yen.
Posted by: larrycat on February 14, 2012 7:03 PM
Not
that I favour Communism ! but! I'm suffering a lot more under
Capitalism at the moment At least under Communism we could shoot the
Bankers etc ! But being Free to starve is a comfort one supposes
Posted by: larrycat on February 14, 2012 6:58 PM
Any
body who mocks China would do well to ask where they would get their
next tv washing machine pc etc etc WE make sweet FA here ! our wealth
comes from our Banking and financial services ! And we all know
just how brillient we are at that!!!!
Posted by: BingoBango on February 14, 2012 6:21 PM
Is this a hint of humanity from the Chinese? - yeah right!
Posted by: unknown1 on February 14, 2012 5:42 PM
won't be long before we're all slaves working in sweetshops and Zero regulations hardly any laws
Posted by: neilly from Scotland on February 14, 2012 5:34 PM
Yes China that Globally recognisedGenerous country .
Posted by: Marley's Ghost on February 14, 2012 5:17 PM
You couldn't make it up could you?
Those darned commies were right all along and their exploitive system
where a citizen has no rights, except the rights to work in a sweat
shop, for the price of a bowl of rice and a new Landrover has clearly
proved superior to our own.
It wont be long now before we look like them and they look like we used
too, what with the erosion of our civil rights and austerity measures
driving us back a hundred years.ho
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Re: New EC Thread
Immigrants targeted by far-right groups in Greece
Far-right groups in Athens have been patrolling certain
neighbourhoods and beating up immigrants they accuse of taking work away
from Greeks. Police have so far been reluctant to pursue the attackers.
By Gaëlle LE ROUX (text)
Reza Jholam is a 16-year-old from Afghanistan living in Athens.
In October, he was walking home alone when he had the misfortune of
crossing paths with a far-right group called “Chryssi Avyi” (“Golden
Dawn”) terrorising certain neighbourhoods in the Greek capital. Their
target: immigrants.
“There were twelve of them. First, someone threw a bottle of water at
my back, so I started running. But I couldn’t get away,” Reza said.
“They grabbed me and hit me in the head with a bat. When I was on the
ground, they continued to hit me until I was no longer moving.”
Reza arrived in Greece last summer after passing through Iran and
Turkey. Once in Athens, he was helped by the Afghan Community of Greece,
an association that offers immigrants Greek classes and workshops on
Greek culture, laws, and customs.
Now, the organisation also informs new arrivals of the risk of racist
attacks. “We give them a map of neighbourhoods in Athens where it’s
best to avoid walking alone,” explained the association’s president,
Yunus Mohammadi.
‘Stealing work from Greeks’
Yunus, too, has had run-ins with far-right groups in Greece. A year
ago, several men broke into his office, ransacked it and beat him.
“Nothing too serious,” he said, touching his forehead. Last December,
the vice president of the Afghan Community of Greece, Safar Haydary, was
also beaten by extremists.
“This type of violence has become a very common phenomenon here,
especially since the beginning of the crisis,” Yunus said. “Some people
accuse us of taking jobs from Greeks and hold us responsible for the
security problems here.”
Yet another attack on February 16 hospitalised three Bangladeshi immigrants.
“It’s getting worse and worse,” Yunus said. “The most worrying is
that it’s spreading throughout the whole city and even around the
country. A few days ago, there was a report of a similar attack on one
of the Greek islands.”
Eva Cossé, a reasearcher at Human Rights Watch, condemns the recent pattern of abuse of immigrants in Greece.
“These attacks mainly target people of colour; few of the victims
have been immigrants from Eastern Europe,” Ms Cossé explained. “It’s an
extremely upsetting phenomenon, especially since the authorities are
hesitant to admit there’s a problem."
Indeed, the police seem to be in no rush to arrest the assailants. In
the police station near the neighbourhood of Omonia, where many of the
immigrants live and many of the attacks have occurred, officers have
said they are afraid that the far-right groups will retaliate if
pursued.
56,000 immigrants per year
Until recently, community organisations had managed to protect immigrants from right-wing groups.
“People here are angry, they want to fight against these fascists,”
Yunus said. “But we need to avoid that, because it’s exactly what those
who attack us want. That’s exactly what they’re waiting for to step up
the violence.”
The situation is so tense that it seems on the verge of exploding at
any moment. In a report on the recent attack on immigrants, Ms Cossé
warns that "police and lawyers will very soon have to do more than just
record testimonies from victims" and that "aggressors will only stop
when the police react in a swift and efficient manner and carry out
serious investigations.”
“The problem is not only the lack of action on the part of Greek
authorities. It’s much bigger,” Yunus noted. “It’s a problem of how
immigrants are received in Europe.”
According to Human Rights Watch, 56,000 immigrants arrive each year
in Greece. The country is the main entry point by land for illegal
immigrants in Europe, where, via the Greece-Turkey border, nine out of
ten illegal immigrants enter the European Union, according to the UN.
The dream of leaving Greece
“Apart from these abominable and overpopulated centres [which were
severely criticised in a UN report from October 2011], nothing is done
to welcome the immigrants, to explain to them how the country works,”
Yunus said. “So we take care of them, on our modest scale.”
When Reza went to the police station, his face bloodied, he was told
that nothing could be done because his visa had expired four days
earlier. Nevertheless, an ambulance was called, although the doctors at
the hospital did not clean or bandage his wounds.
Reza had only been in Greece for three months.
Today, Reza has recovered, with only a few scars on his forehead. But
he dreams of one thing only: leaving Greece as soon as possible.
“I want to go to Norway, but the trip is expensive," he said. "You
have to pay the border escort and other people. I’m waiting to save up
enough money.”
In the meantime, Reza no longer goes out at night alone.
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As if Greece doesn't have enought to contend with.!!!!
Manhunt launched in dramatic Greek museum robbery
By the CNN Wire Staff
February 19, 2012 -- Updated 0124 GMT (0924 HKT)
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
(CNN) -- A manhunt was under way Saturday in Greece
for two suspects who tied up a guard, stormed the Archeological Museum
of Olympia, smashed glass casings and stole dozens of small statues,
state media reported.
The robbers took 65 to 68 clay and brass statues, and a gold ring,
police spokesman Athanassios Kokkalakis said Friday, the day of the
theft.
Closed-circuit video footage showed the suspects as they seized about
65 statuettes, Greece's official AMNA news agency reported.
It's the second big theft of this kind in Greece this year.
Culture Minister Pavlos Geroulanos submitted his resignation after the robbery, the prime minister's office said Friday.
In January, three art works -- including a painting by Pablo Picasso
and another by Piet Mondrian -- were stolen from the National Gallery in
Athens.
Dimitra Koutsoumba, president of the Greek Archaeologists' Association, said Friday that the latest attack was sad and worrying.
"It is the first time that we have an armed robbery at a museum
during operating hours. It shows that the cuts the Culture Ministry has
made since the crisis hit in 2009 make it easier for such incidents to
take place," she said. "The minister himself had told us that the cuts
were ranging between 30% and 35%, and they include cuts in personnel."
She called for more importance to be placed on cultural heritage and
said greater steps should be taken to protect irreplaceable items that
belong to the nation.
"Such incidents are an issue of national security," she said. "The
artifacts that were taken were mainly figurines related to the Olympics,
so many were depicting athletes."
The museum, built on an ancient site in the Peloponnese peninsula, is considered among the most important in Greece.
The ceremony for the lighting of the Olympic flame for the 2012
London Olympics is scheduled to take place on May 10 at the Ancient
Olympia site, where the museum is located.
The first Olympic Games were held in Olympia in 776 B.C. to celebrate
the deity Zeus. A sanctuary at the site was dedicated to him.
CNN's Helena DeMoura contributed to this report
Manhunt launched in dramatic Greek museum robbery
By the CNN Wire Staff
February 19, 2012 -- Updated 0124 GMT (0924 HKT)
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
- Two suspects are sought in the smash-and-grab robbery
- They tied up a guard before storming the museum
- They took 65 to 68 clay and brass statues, and a gold ring
- It's the second big theft of this kind in Greece this year
(CNN) -- A manhunt was under way Saturday in Greece
for two suspects who tied up a guard, stormed the Archeological Museum
of Olympia, smashed glass casings and stole dozens of small statues,
state media reported.
The robbers took 65 to 68 clay and brass statues, and a gold ring,
police spokesman Athanassios Kokkalakis said Friday, the day of the
theft.
Closed-circuit video footage showed the suspects as they seized about
65 statuettes, Greece's official AMNA news agency reported.
It's the second big theft of this kind in Greece this year.
Culture Minister Pavlos Geroulanos submitted his resignation after the robbery, the prime minister's office said Friday.
In January, three art works -- including a painting by Pablo Picasso
and another by Piet Mondrian -- were stolen from the National Gallery in
Athens.
Dimitra Koutsoumba, president of the Greek Archaeologists' Association, said Friday that the latest attack was sad and worrying.
"It is the first time that we have an armed robbery at a museum
during operating hours. It shows that the cuts the Culture Ministry has
made since the crisis hit in 2009 make it easier for such incidents to
take place," she said. "The minister himself had told us that the cuts
were ranging between 30% and 35%, and they include cuts in personnel."
She called for more importance to be placed on cultural heritage and
said greater steps should be taken to protect irreplaceable items that
belong to the nation.
"Such incidents are an issue of national security," she said. "The
artifacts that were taken were mainly figurines related to the Olympics,
so many were depicting athletes."
The museum, built on an ancient site in the Peloponnese peninsula, is considered among the most important in Greece.
The ceremony for the lighting of the Olympic flame for the 2012
London Olympics is scheduled to take place on May 10 at the Ancient
Olympia site, where the museum is located.
The first Olympic Games were held in Olympia in 776 B.C. to celebrate
the deity Zeus. A sanctuary at the site was dedicated to him.
CNN's Helena DeMoura contributed to this report
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Published in Investing on 6 January 2012
As things get worse for Europe, they just get better and better for Germany. And it may not be a coincidence.
The German economy enjoyed a blistering end to 2011, adding an
extra 22,000 jobs in December. It created nearly half a million jobs
over the year, as the sleek German economic machine kept on purring.
By
comparison, the rest of Europe looks like a stalled, beaten-up old
banger that has been ransacked for parts. In Spain, unemployment rose
again in December to a fearful 4.42 million.
While Germany gained nearly 500,000 jobs in 2011, Spain lost 332,000.
In
Germany, the unemployment rate is 6.8%, the lowest figure for 20 years.
In Spain it is an unthinkable 23%, the highest in the EU, and rising.
Among young people, it is nearly 50%.
Cars to China
Germany
appears to be doing everything right at the moment. At least, its
manufacturers and exporters are, I'm not too sure about its
politicians.
As European markets shrank, German companies wisely
shifted their focus to rapidly growing emerging economies. During the
first six months of 2011, BMW saw sales of cars to China accelerate by
61%.
Rival car maker Audi saw its sales jump 28% over the same period.
Half of Volkswagen's sales are now in emerging markets, of which half are in China. I tipped Volkswagen back in October and the stock is up about 8% since then.
So how does Germany do it?
The joke is on us
We
all know about German quality, efficiency, craftsmanship, attention to
detail and all-round, well, German-ness. And we have learned how the
country wisely spent the boom years driving down costs and wages, in a
successful bid to remain competitive against emerging markets.
Brits
like to sneer at the Germans, but quite frankly, it's because we're
jealous. We had a great car industry, once. Today, British motoring icon
the Mini is owned by BMW. Who said the Germans don't have a sense of
humour?
Why Germans should love the euro
Germany has
another advantage. It has a seriously undervalued currency. The Germans
may have been sceptical about the euro from the start, and are even more
sceptical today, but it is working very nicely for them.
They
might have a shock if the euro were to collapse and they had to return
to the deutschmark, which would instantly appreciate and drive up the
cost of their exports.
As every other currency races to the bottom, Germany's would race to the top. Would BMW like that?
Pain in Germany and Spain
Germany may be strong, but that didn't stop its stock markets falling -17% over the past 12 months. That was almost as poor as Spain, where markets fell just -18%, according to MSCI.
It
looks good compared to France (21%), Portugal (26%), Austria (38%) and
Greece (64%), but it is still below the European average for the last 12
months of -16%.
So the German miracle is good news for jobseekers, not so great for investors.
Still,
with Germany trading on an attractive 9.8x earnings, it looks tempting.
That compares to 10.9x in the UK and 14.3x in the much-tipped US.
Emerging worries
The
ongoing eurozone crisis will cast a shadow over German stock markets
for some time yet. The good news is that it hasn't held back its
exporters, quite the reverse.
As the crisis worsens, there could be a very tempting entry point for investors. I'm tempted by the iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF, which tracks the 50 biggest stocks in the country.
The
biggest worry for German exporters is much further afield in emerging
markets. If the Chinese property bubble bursts, the locals might not be
willing to spend so freely on German automobiles.
That could be an even better entry point.
Purrrrrr
For
now, Germany purrs while Europe bleeds. As I said, this is not a
coincidence. Germany has already got its austerity years out of the way,
happily for them, during a much more benign economic period.
Its
insistence that the Club Med countries belatedly share its pain is
tipping swathes of southern Europe into outright depression. The worse
things get, the more the euro will fall, the better it will be for
Germany.
They didn't plan it that way, but the smart guys get all the luck.
The big question is how long this imbalance can last. But Germany looks set to keep purring for a while yet.
> Our latest free report has just been released. Make sure you don't miss '10 Steps to Making a Million'
More from Harvey Jones:
As things get worse for Europe, they just get better and better for Germany. And it may not be a coincidence.
The German economy enjoyed a blistering end to 2011, adding an
extra 22,000 jobs in December. It created nearly half a million jobs
over the year, as the sleek German economic machine kept on purring.
By
comparison, the rest of Europe looks like a stalled, beaten-up old
banger that has been ransacked for parts. In Spain, unemployment rose
again in December to a fearful 4.42 million.
While Germany gained nearly 500,000 jobs in 2011, Spain lost 332,000.
In
Germany, the unemployment rate is 6.8%, the lowest figure for 20 years.
In Spain it is an unthinkable 23%, the highest in the EU, and rising.
Among young people, it is nearly 50%.
Cars to China
Germany
appears to be doing everything right at the moment. At least, its
manufacturers and exporters are, I'm not too sure about its
politicians.
As European markets shrank, German companies wisely
shifted their focus to rapidly growing emerging economies. During the
first six months of 2011, BMW saw sales of cars to China accelerate by
61%.
Rival car maker Audi saw its sales jump 28% over the same period.
Half of Volkswagen's sales are now in emerging markets, of which half are in China. I tipped Volkswagen back in October and the stock is up about 8% since then.
So how does Germany do it?
The joke is on us
We
all know about German quality, efficiency, craftsmanship, attention to
detail and all-round, well, German-ness. And we have learned how the
country wisely spent the boom years driving down costs and wages, in a
successful bid to remain competitive against emerging markets.
Brits
like to sneer at the Germans, but quite frankly, it's because we're
jealous. We had a great car industry, once. Today, British motoring icon
the Mini is owned by BMW. Who said the Germans don't have a sense of
humour?
Why Germans should love the euro
Germany has
another advantage. It has a seriously undervalued currency. The Germans
may have been sceptical about the euro from the start, and are even more
sceptical today, but it is working very nicely for them.
They
might have a shock if the euro were to collapse and they had to return
to the deutschmark, which would instantly appreciate and drive up the
cost of their exports.
As every other currency races to the bottom, Germany's would race to the top. Would BMW like that?
Pain in Germany and Spain
Germany may be strong, but that didn't stop its stock markets falling -17% over the past 12 months. That was almost as poor as Spain, where markets fell just -18%, according to MSCI.
It
looks good compared to France (21%), Portugal (26%), Austria (38%) and
Greece (64%), but it is still below the European average for the last 12
months of -16%.
So the German miracle is good news for jobseekers, not so great for investors.
Still,
with Germany trading on an attractive 9.8x earnings, it looks tempting.
That compares to 10.9x in the UK and 14.3x in the much-tipped US.
Emerging worries
The
ongoing eurozone crisis will cast a shadow over German stock markets
for some time yet. The good news is that it hasn't held back its
exporters, quite the reverse.
As the crisis worsens, there could be a very tempting entry point for investors. I'm tempted by the iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund ETF, which tracks the 50 biggest stocks in the country.
The
biggest worry for German exporters is much further afield in emerging
markets. If the Chinese property bubble bursts, the locals might not be
willing to spend so freely on German automobiles.
That could be an even better entry point.
Purrrrrr
For
now, Germany purrs while Europe bleeds. As I said, this is not a
coincidence. Germany has already got its austerity years out of the way,
happily for them, during a much more benign economic period.
Its
insistence that the Club Med countries belatedly share its pain is
tipping swathes of southern Europe into outright depression. The worse
things get, the more the euro will fall, the better it will be for
Germany.
They didn't plan it that way, but the smart guys get all the luck.
The big question is how long this imbalance can last. But Germany looks set to keep purring for a while yet.
> Our latest free report has just been released. Make sure you don't miss '10 Steps to Making a Million'
More from Harvey Jones:
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Re: New EC Thread
Debt crisis
Does doom await in 2012?
2 January 2012
El País
Madrid
Beppe Giacobbe
In the wake of a terrible year in 2011, the worst may be
yet to come warns political analyst José Ignacio Torreblanca. The crisis
could force EU member states to choose between Greece and Great
Britain. And once again, everything will be decided in Germany.
José Ignacio Torreblanca
2011 will be remembered as the year in which, for the first time,
the European Union gazed into the abyss and named the unnamable. To the
surprise of friends and strangers, inside and outside Europe, just when
after a decade of introspection and divisions Europe set out to make up
for lost time with its eagerness to become a global player at last, a
financial and economic crisis that spanned the globe hit the continent
with full force and destabilised its main and most successful
achievement: the monetary union.
"If the euro falls, Europe falls," Chancellor Angela Merkel announced
to the members of her party meeting in Leipzig in November, describing
the situation as “the most difficult since the Second World War." And
she was right: the consequences of a breakdown of the euro would be so
profound that it would be hard to restrict them merely to the currency:
they would hit the internal market and the principal common policies,
including foreign policy, full on, sweeping away decades of painstaking
European integration.
The “Empty Chair Crisis" in the sixties, the "Eurosclerosis" of the
seventies, the shadow of Europe’s economic and technological decline
vis-à-vis the U.S. and Japan in the eighties, the return of
concentration camps and ethnic cleansing in the nineties, and the failed
constitutional referenda in France and the Netherlands in the last
decade: the European Union has been in crisis before, but none have had
an existential character in the literal sense of the word.
"Too little, too late"
What have the consequences of the euro crisis been? The most visible
and immediate has the devastation in terms of employment and prosperity,
which has provoked widespread wariness about the future of the welfare
state. The crisis has also brought into question the democratic
self-respect of our societies, subject to market forces over which they
detect a lack of control. And although it is too early to outline the
psychological impact, history tells us that societies that are afraid
and that feel insecure tend to turn in on themselves, become wary of
their surroundings, open the door to populism and sacrifice freedom for
the sake of greater security.
The weaknesses revealed by the crisis have been equally significant.
The monetary union, which aspired to be as sturdy as all those imposing
buildings that are depicted in the Euro banknotes but that (a
premonition?) in reality do not actually exist, has proved itself
incapable of overcoming bad weather, as if it were designed to set sail
only under untroubled skies.
And at the same time, the fine but indispensable fabric of the
‘identity’ that holds European integration together has also been torn:
solidarity and the community project, anchored as much in a vision of
the past as in a vision of a common future, have been undermined and
even replaced by the worst prejudices and cultural stereotypes between
North and South, East and West, Catholic and Protestant that we thought
had been overcome. The management of the crisis that has grown out of
all this has been marked by "too little, too late”, which has kept the
euro dangling over the edge of the abyss and kept the citizenry on the
verge of a heart attack for most of the year.
Institutions sidelined
From the institutional point of view, the integration of Europe has
also been singularly affected, now that Germany and France have opted
for a straightforward and ruthless intergovernmentalism and brushed
aside the European institutions (particularly the Commission and
Parliament) as well as the so-called “Community method", which
traditionally has been the only guarantee of a balance between big and
small, rich and poor, North and South.
In extremis, as the year came to a close, the European Central Bank
saved the European economy from collapse by flooding the banking market
with liquidity. This has proved right all those who claimed that the
pressures on sovereign debt were not the cause but the consequence of a
financial crisis that, due to errors in design and operation of the euro
zone, nearly engulfed the EU itself. The bell of the ECB has saved the
EU, at least for the moment. It has not, however, resolved the
underlying problems, which are still there and which 2012 will have to
tackle.
These include the inability to build a firewall between the euro and
the EU that would shield the failure of one from the collapse of the
other. For that reason, when the Greeks and the British return to the
negotiating table in 2012 the EU will be precisely where it was in 2011:
between the rock of a Greek exit from the euro, the consequences of
which would be devastating, and the hard place of an irreversible
rupture with the United Kingdom, which would threaten the unity of the
internal market and weaken the EU’s global standing.
All eyes will be on Germany
Nonetheless, the future of Europe will be decided not at the
Greco-British periphery, but, naturally, at its core. The German
government stubbornly persists in a reading of the crisis that makes
resolving it impossible because, as has been shown, the crisis demands a
change in the rules governing the euro zone and, most particularly, a
new role for the ECB and the issuing of Eurobonds.
In Berlin, Chancellor Merkel has consciously lashed herself not to
one but to two masts: the mast of a public opinion highly reluctant to
get more involved in monetary union, and to a Constitutional Court that
is hostile to European integration. But that legal and public opinion
behind which Merkel is hiding is not the cause of her actions, but
something that she herself and her party have encouraged, instilling in
the Germans the belief, against all empirical evidence, that the euro
has not only been a bad deal for Germany but, as the Constitutional
Court seems to believe, a threat to German democracy itself.
And so, once the ECB has changed course and resolved on saving the
financial system, all eyes will be on Germany, trying to figure out how
Berlin will continue to lead Europe on the basis of its doubts,
misgivings and fears – or on a constructive and long-term vision of the
future of the continent. Forget the Mayan calendar: it is in Berlin
where Cassandra will be vindicated or refuted.
Does doom await in 2012?
2 January 2012
El País
Madrid
Beppe Giacobbe
In the wake of a terrible year in 2011, the worst may be
yet to come warns political analyst José Ignacio Torreblanca. The crisis
could force EU member states to choose between Greece and Great
Britain. And once again, everything will be decided in Germany.
José Ignacio Torreblanca
2011 will be remembered as the year in which, for the first time,
the European Union gazed into the abyss and named the unnamable. To the
surprise of friends and strangers, inside and outside Europe, just when
after a decade of introspection and divisions Europe set out to make up
for lost time with its eagerness to become a global player at last, a
financial and economic crisis that spanned the globe hit the continent
with full force and destabilised its main and most successful
achievement: the monetary union.
"If the euro falls, Europe falls," Chancellor Angela Merkel announced
to the members of her party meeting in Leipzig in November, describing
the situation as “the most difficult since the Second World War." And
she was right: the consequences of a breakdown of the euro would be so
profound that it would be hard to restrict them merely to the currency:
they would hit the internal market and the principal common policies,
including foreign policy, full on, sweeping away decades of painstaking
European integration.
The “Empty Chair Crisis" in the sixties, the "Eurosclerosis" of the
seventies, the shadow of Europe’s economic and technological decline
vis-à-vis the U.S. and Japan in the eighties, the return of
concentration camps and ethnic cleansing in the nineties, and the failed
constitutional referenda in France and the Netherlands in the last
decade: the European Union has been in crisis before, but none have had
an existential character in the literal sense of the word.
"Too little, too late"
What have the consequences of the euro crisis been? The most visible
and immediate has the devastation in terms of employment and prosperity,
which has provoked widespread wariness about the future of the welfare
state. The crisis has also brought into question the democratic
self-respect of our societies, subject to market forces over which they
detect a lack of control. And although it is too early to outline the
psychological impact, history tells us that societies that are afraid
and that feel insecure tend to turn in on themselves, become wary of
their surroundings, open the door to populism and sacrifice freedom for
the sake of greater security.
The weaknesses revealed by the crisis have been equally significant.
The monetary union, which aspired to be as sturdy as all those imposing
buildings that are depicted in the Euro banknotes but that (a
premonition?) in reality do not actually exist, has proved itself
incapable of overcoming bad weather, as if it were designed to set sail
only under untroubled skies.
And at the same time, the fine but indispensable fabric of the
‘identity’ that holds European integration together has also been torn:
solidarity and the community project, anchored as much in a vision of
the past as in a vision of a common future, have been undermined and
even replaced by the worst prejudices and cultural stereotypes between
North and South, East and West, Catholic and Protestant that we thought
had been overcome. The management of the crisis that has grown out of
all this has been marked by "too little, too late”, which has kept the
euro dangling over the edge of the abyss and kept the citizenry on the
verge of a heart attack for most of the year.
Institutions sidelined
From the institutional point of view, the integration of Europe has
also been singularly affected, now that Germany and France have opted
for a straightforward and ruthless intergovernmentalism and brushed
aside the European institutions (particularly the Commission and
Parliament) as well as the so-called “Community method", which
traditionally has been the only guarantee of a balance between big and
small, rich and poor, North and South.
In extremis, as the year came to a close, the European Central Bank
saved the European economy from collapse by flooding the banking market
with liquidity. This has proved right all those who claimed that the
pressures on sovereign debt were not the cause but the consequence of a
financial crisis that, due to errors in design and operation of the euro
zone, nearly engulfed the EU itself. The bell of the ECB has saved the
EU, at least for the moment. It has not, however, resolved the
underlying problems, which are still there and which 2012 will have to
tackle.
These include the inability to build a firewall between the euro and
the EU that would shield the failure of one from the collapse of the
other. For that reason, when the Greeks and the British return to the
negotiating table in 2012 the EU will be precisely where it was in 2011:
between the rock of a Greek exit from the euro, the consequences of
which would be devastating, and the hard place of an irreversible
rupture with the United Kingdom, which would threaten the unity of the
internal market and weaken the EU’s global standing.
All eyes will be on Germany
Nonetheless, the future of Europe will be decided not at the
Greco-British periphery, but, naturally, at its core. The German
government stubbornly persists in a reading of the crisis that makes
resolving it impossible because, as has been shown, the crisis demands a
change in the rules governing the euro zone and, most particularly, a
new role for the ECB and the issuing of Eurobonds.
In Berlin, Chancellor Merkel has consciously lashed herself not to
one but to two masts: the mast of a public opinion highly reluctant to
get more involved in monetary union, and to a Constitutional Court that
is hostile to European integration. But that legal and public opinion
behind which Merkel is hiding is not the cause of her actions, but
something that she herself and her party have encouraged, instilling in
the Germans the belief, against all empirical evidence, that the euro
has not only been a bad deal for Germany but, as the Constitutional
Court seems to believe, a threat to German democracy itself.
And so, once the ECB has changed course and resolved on saving the
financial system, all eyes will be on Germany, trying to figure out how
Berlin will continue to lead Europe on the basis of its doubts,
misgivings and fears – or on a constructive and long-term vision of the
future of the continent. Forget the Mayan calendar: it is in Berlin
where Cassandra will be vindicated or refuted.
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Age : 67
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