Disqualification of former moderate leader in Iran leaves only hardliners

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Rafsanjani's Exit Leaves Only Hardliners

The disqualification of the moderate former leader
increases the power of Iran's conservatives - with implications for the
West.

10:30am UK,
Wednesday 22 May 2013
Disqualification of former moderate leader in Iran leaves only hardliners Rafsanjani-different-clothes-1-522x293

Disqualification of former moderate leader in Iran leaves only hardliners Rafsanjani-different-clothes-1-522x293

Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani is a moderate in hardline
Iran

Lisa Holland

Foreign Affairs Correspondent

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The exclusion of former President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and
another thorn in the conservatives’ side, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, from running
in the Iranian elections could foreshadow even greater repercussions.

Since its founding in 1979, the Islamic republic has been characterised by
competing and opposing power centres.

Barring further surprises, the post of president will now be filled from a
small group of conservative candidates in Iran’s ruling camp, a loose alliance
of Shia Muslim clerics and Revolutionary Guard commanders.

That would put the last major state institution under their control — the
first time since the 1979 revolution that all state institutions were under the
firm control of one faction.

It leads some to speculate that the ruling faction is determined to abolish
the office of president, which has served as a locus of opposition under the
populist incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and before him the reformist Mohammad
Khatami, who pushed for more personal freedoms.

The remaining candidates reflect the different shades of grey that now make
up Iran’s establishment, a coalition of conservative clerics and Revolutionary
Guard commanders known as the traditionalists.

Of the eight who were selected — out of the 700 hopefuls who signed up — only
one, Hassan Rowhani, a former nuclear negotiator, has even slightly different
stances from the traditionalists.

The question now is how the urban classes will react; they who mostly gave up
on politics after the suppression of the 2009 protests following Ahmadinejad’s
disputed re-election.
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (R) and
Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei (L)

The 2009 event was defined by a rapid vote-count and wide margin in favour of
his re-election.

It instigated the largest and most sustained protests in Iran's
post-revolutionary history. The Supreme Leader and his inner circle do not want
a repeat of this.

After 2009 the ensuing crackdown left Iran's burgeoning reform movement
estranged, imprisoned or scurrying into exile.

Reformist candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi were detained and
remain under house arrest.

For the past two years there has been considerable friction amongst Iran's
hardliners and a widening gulf between Ahmadinejad and Iran's Supreme Leader the
Ayatollah Khamenei.

After the election four years ago, the then-Secretary of State Hillary
Clinton and many academics forecast Iran was descending into a military
dictatorship.

Iran has watched seismic changes amongst its regional neighbours since it
last held elections.

The stakes are certainly high - for the direction of the Islamic Republic and
perhaps the world.

Iran's nuclear confrontation with the West, international sanctions, a
disastrous economic crisis and hopes for domestic change could all be affected
by the result.