Britain on track to be the biggest Economy in Europe

By Matthew Holehouse6:00AM GMT 26 Dec 0203 The Telegraph Comments156 Comments
Britain is on track to overtake France and Germany to become the biggest economy in Europe, according to an authoritative global forecast.
A rapidly growing population, relatively low taxes and independence from the ailing Eurozone will make Britain the most successful economy in the West after the United States over the next fifteen years, according to the Centre for Economic and Business Research.
In an upbeat assessment of the country’s prospects, the CEBR said Britain, the sixth biggest economy in the world, will see its GDP grow from £1.59 trillion to £2.64 trillion by 2028.
In the same period, Germany’s output will grow more slowly from £2.2 trillion to £2.69 trillion, with growth hampered by a weak euro, an ageing population and the prospect of future Eurozone bailouts. It puts Britain on course to surpass Germany by 2030.
Britain is also due to overtake France by 2018. Its global ranking is set to slide as Francois Hollande’s high tax regime and weak exports suffocate growth.
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The Treasury hailed the report as evidence that George Osborne's plan to reduce the public deficit and cut corporation taxes is working.
But critics will point out that the major threats to an otherwise rosy outlook - cutting immigration and destabilising Britain's relationship with the European Union - are the Government's flagship policies.


David Cameron has promised to cut immigration to the "tens of thousands" and to repatriate powers from Brussels to Westminster ahead of a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU in 2017.
The CEBR highlighted a failure to win new export markets as a threat to growth, and Britain’s balance of payments has deteriorated in recent months, with much new growth coming from consumer spending rather than trade.
A break-up of the UK following the Scottish referendum would hurt the economy, the think tank warned.
“The UK is forecast to be the second most successful of the Western economies after the US. Positive demographics with continuing immigration, rather less exposure to the problems of the Eurozone than other European economies combine with relatively low taxes by European standards to encourage faster growth than in most Western economies,” the CEBR said. “By 2029 the UK will almost have caught up with Germany and we still forecast that the UK will overtake Germany to be the largest Western European economy around 2030.”
The research forecasts a new economic world order, with emerging economies eclipsing the struggling Eurozone.
China is on course to overtake the United States as the world’s biggest economy within 15 years, while India is set to surpass Japan as the world’s third biggest economy and Turkey is due to overtake France.
Other nations on the march include Mexico, due to rise to ninth place, and Korea, rising to 11th.
And providing they can remain politically stable, Nigeria, Iraq, Egypt and the Philippines could enter the top thirty.
Meanwhile, Italy will drop from eighth place to 15th and Spain from 13th to 18th.
Germany would perform much better, and may never be surpassed by Britain, were the eurozone to break-up and it were to return to the deutschmark, the CEBR noted.
Other losers include South Africa, which is due to drop out the top thirty because of strikes and a weak currency; Iran, which faces years of sanctions; and Russia, which is due to reach eighth place but whose potential growth is going to be hampered by falling energy prices.
While the rest of Latin America booms, Argentina is set to pay the price of economic mismanagement for years to come and may fall behind Colombia.
The Treasury said the forecast was “encouraging” but more needed to be done.
“Britain’s hard work is paying off and the long term economic plan is working. The economy is growing, the deficit is falling and jobs are being created and while this report is encouraging, the job is not yet done,” a spokesman said.
A separate study released earlier this week by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research claimed Britain's economy could be 11 per cent smaller, and individual wages lower, by 2060 if net migration were halved from its current trend level of 200,000 a year.

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A promising start to 2014, Boxing Day has brought record sales .......the bad news is the floods in parts of the U.K. I feel so sorry for the families of those Homes affected.

"Britain is also due to overtake France by 2018. Its global ranking is set to slide as Francois Hollande’s high tax regime and weak exports suffocate growth."

I would think we have well overtaken France a long time ago, never mind in 2018!!! Where do they get these figures from? The Eurozone make up their own figures imo

Panda wrote:By Matthew Holehouse6:00AM GMT 26 Dec 0203 The Telegraph Comments156 Comments
Britain is on track to overtake France and Germany to become the biggest economy in Europe, according to an authoritative global forecast.
A rapidly growing population, relatively low taxes and independence from the ailing Eurozone will make Britain the most successful economy in the West after the United States over the next fifteen years, according to the Centre for Economic and Business Research.
In an upbeat assessment of the country’s prospects, the CEBR said Britain, the sixth biggest economy in the world, will see its GDP grow from £1.59 trillion to £2.64 trillion by 2028.
In the same period, Germany’s output will grow more slowly from £2.2 trillion to £2.69 trillion, with growth hampered by a weak euro, an ageing population and the prospect of future Eurozone bailouts. It puts Britain on course to surpass Germany by 2030.
Britain is also due to overtake France by 2018. Its global ranking is set to slide as Francois Hollande’s high tax regime and weak exports suffocate growth.
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The Treasury hailed the report as evidence that George Osborne's plan to reduce the public deficit and cut corporation taxes is working.
But critics will point out that the major threats to an otherwise rosy outlook - cutting immigration and destabilising Britain's relationship with the European Union - are the Government's flagship policies.


David Cameron has promised to cut immigration to the "tens of thousands" and to repatriate powers from Brussels to Westminster ahead of a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU in 2017.
The CEBR highlighted a failure to win new export markets as a threat to growth, and Britain’s balance of payments has deteriorated in recent months, with much new growth coming from consumer spending rather than trade.
A break-up of the UK following the Scottish referendum would hurt the economy, the think tank warned.
“The UK is forecast to be the second most successful of the Western economies after the US. Positive demographics with continuing immigration, rather less exposure to the problems of the Eurozone than other European economies combine with relatively low taxes by European standards to encourage faster growth than in most Western economies,” the CEBR said. “By 2029 the UK will almost have caught up with Germany and we still forecast that the UK will overtake Germany to be the largest Western European economy around 2030.”
The research forecasts a new economic world order, with emerging economies eclipsing the struggling Eurozone.
China is on course to overtake the United States as the world’s biggest economy within 15 years, while India is set to surpass Japan as the world’s third biggest economy and Turkey is due to overtake France.
Other nations on the march include Mexico, due to rise to ninth place, and Korea, rising to 11th.
And providing they can remain politically stable, Nigeria, Iraq, Egypt and the Philippines could enter the top thirty.
Meanwhile, Italy will drop from eighth place to 15th and Spain from 13th to 18th.
Germany would perform much better, and may never be surpassed by Britain, were the eurozone to break-up and it were to return to the deutschmark, the CEBR noted.
Other losers include South Africa, which is due to drop out the top thirty because of strikes and a weak currency; Iran, which faces years of sanctions; and Russia, which is due to reach eighth place but whose potential growth is going to be hampered by falling energy prices.
While the rest of Latin America booms, Argentina is set to pay the price of economic mismanagement for years to come and may fall behind Colombia.
The Treasury said the forecast was “encouraging” but more needed to be done.
“Britain’s hard work is paying off and the long term economic plan is working. The economy is growing, the deficit is falling and jobs are being created and while this report is encouraging, the job is not yet done,” a spokesman said.
A separate study released earlier this week by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research claimed Britain's economy could be 11 per cent smaller, and individual wages lower, by 2060 if net migration were halved from its current trend level of 200,000 a year.

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A promising start to 2014, Boxing Day has brought record sales .......the bad news is the floods in parts of the U.K. I feel so sorry for the families of those Homes affected.

This would be good news indeed Panda, if we were to be believe it... I fail to see where the country is earning this money. Our industrial base is a shambles and but a fraction of what we had compared to only 20 years ago and much of what we do have is owned by foreign enterprise who use off shore accounts the only 'winners' are their shareholders, none of whom would be 'Honourable Members' I'm sure. The numbers out of work are far higher, despite government manipulation of which department of the welfare system the jobless are claiming from and the ever growing influx of immigrants and their families driving the cost to the welfare system even higher...

Cameron's promises to 'cut immigration' and 'repatriate powers from Brussels' are about (imho) as reliable a statement made by Chamberlain waving his piece of paper and crowing 'peace for our time.' Besides, Cameron breaks promises with alarming ease, (No going back to waiting for hours on end in A&E.) (Three thousand more midwives). (An end to hospital closures). (No more top-down reorganisations). (Any Cabinet minister, if we win the election, who comes to me and says ‘here are my plans and they involve front line reductions’ will be sent back to their department to go away and think again). The list of retractions is truly endless.

I know it isn't just the Tories, New Labour are no different all politicians are the same, they'll promise you the earth and give you soil... it's their nature.

Millions more of our population are now having to work on past their expected retirement age while our youth, (the future of this nation) cannot get even the most menial of jobs because Europe and Asia are being allowed encouraged even, by the terms our 'elected representatives' agreed to, to send their unskilled labour to the UK where they can either work for more money than they will ever see in their own country or move straight into sheltered accomodation and draw welfare.

These immigrants don't even have to worry about their own or their families health, the NHS will supply them with all they need while our own sick and aged population are unable to get access to care or treatment and (and many do) die waiting for the treatment and care they paid for all their working lives, or die trying to keep warm because the price of our fuel is governed by another foreign investor.

Sorry, rant over.
ms

Actually malena, the UN no less is trying to get Cameron to relax the new immigration rules Britain has introduced. We have been suckers for too long and I hope Cameron doesn't bow to pressure. The Middle East is in chaos and the situation gets worse every day, Turkey is the latest Country to experience rioting. If the Rebels weren't being armed the situation in these Countries would ease, so wouldn't it be a good idea for the Western World to find out?

That is a good rant Malena and I agree with all.  I have to say though that New Labour caused this terrible slide with it's ridiculous policies and Tony Blair should be sent to the Tower for treason.  However this government does nothing about it.  Who will I wonder? Too late now methinks but they could just bloody try!!!!!!    

Our money comes from 'The City'  as we have some of the best financial brains in the world there.  The EU tried to take it from us because, they they know what it is worth.  They could then use it to prop up the Eurozone.   Without it we would have zilch.   The only thing that Cameron has done for this Country is to stop that, thank God or we really would be in the s**t.  They will have another go though, when he is not looking and probably succeed.   Then where will the money come from to support this massive population we have.

I read somewhere that we are 22nd largest in the world for population and 79th for size. Does not add up does it?

PS France have been in the 'you know what' for a long time but try and bluff it.

Panda wrote:
Actually malena, the UN no less is trying to get Cameron to relax the new immigration rules Britain has introduced. We have been suckers for too long and I hope Cameron doesn't bow to pressure. The Middle East is in chaos and the situation gets worse every day,  Turkey is the latest Country to experience rioting. If the Rebels weren't being armed the situation in these Countries would ease, so wouldn't it be a good idea for the Western World to find out?

The problem is in my opinion Panda, that the West has become involved in the oil rich East without considering how the multitude of religions interact with each other. At its height the British Empire in the main let individual religions carry on as they had for centuries as long as they kept their religion in their church and worked with the raj for the good of the Empire. The likes of Hussein, Gaddafi and other dictatorial leaders ruled or still rule by fear of the state, perhaps not the right way but it worked for centuries. The intervention in the Middle East by coalition troops and changing methods of government has removed the control of these different religious sects, giving an opportunity for unity against a common enemy... the West. By bringing these 'refugees' into the UK and giving permanent residency is simply allowing them an unimpeded invasion access to our shores. It will come back to bite our bum if the process is not stopped and reversed.

fuzeta wrote:That is a good rant Malena and I agree with all.  I have to say though that New Labour caused this terrible slide with it's ridiculous policies and Tony Blair should be sent to the Tower for treason.  However this government does nothing about it.  Who will I wonder? Too late now methinks but they could just bloody try!!!!!!    

Our money comes from 'The City'  as we have some of the best financial brains in the world there.  The EU tried to take it from us because, they they know what it is worth.  They could then use it to prop up the Eurozone.   Without it we would have zilch.   The only thing that Cameron has done for this Country is to stop that, thank God or we really would be in the s**t.  They will have another go though, when he is not looking and probably succeed.   Then where will the money come from to support this massive population we have.

I read somewhere that we are 22nd largest in the world for population and 79th for size. Does not add up does it?

PS France have been in the 'you know what' for a long time but try and bluff it.

We have always been a trading nation with a manufacturing base, which provided our population with regular if not exceptionally well paid work. Nowadays this reliance on the city to maintain the economy does not provide for enough reasonably well paid skilled jobs and the unskilled labour force is mostly an import from Asia and Eastern Europe.

We should learn from the French how to protest the actions of an arrogant, corrupt, bullying government. I was caught up in one French demo' in 1996 I think it was, returning from Lens. We almost missed our ferry because they had blocked the roads at strategic points with coaches and farm vehicles, letting very few vehicles through at a time and selecting which ones they would 'open the barricades' for. Their police did nothing other than make sure there was no violence. (Our wonderful British bobbies, as observed and recorded on film during both the miners and more recently the fuel strikes, hospitalised several pickets for legally being there on picket duty).