EC PRESIDENT CALLS URGENT MEETING FOR TOMORROW #2

'The Billy No Mates Of Europe'

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Jon Craig

December 13, 2011 7:54 PM

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Chris Huhne just can't help himself.
He'll tell you he's being loyal his party leader, Nick Clegg, and to the Coalition government in which he serves.
And then he twists the knife.
"Isolation
is not a good posture," he told political journalists in the committee
corridor after a meeting of LibDem MPs and peers on the Euro-zone crisis
and the LibDems' own Prime Ministerial veto crisis.
"Playing Billy No Mates is no fun," he went on. And it's not in Britain's interests, either, he claimed.
The Billy No Mates of Europe?
Nice phrase!
The assembled scribblers in the corridor winked at each other and smiled. Our wait had - eventually - been worth it.
I'd
spent the best part of two hours "door-stepping" - as we say in the
trade - the meeting in Committee Room 14, at which the LibDems took the
radical decision to abstain in a Commons vote on a DUP motion praising
David Cameron for his Euro-zone treaty veto.
I know... I need to get out more.
Actually, I confess, I did.
I
slipped downstairs for a mince pie or two at the Inter-Parliamentary
Union Christmas Party - always a good do - in the IPU room off
Westminster Hall.
I returned to the Committee Corridor for the
official briefing on the LibDems' meeting, given by slim, earnest young
men stressing the "strong desire" of the party's MPs "for the Coalition
to carry on".
I'll bet there is. Turkeys? Christmas?
The
latest opinio poll, by YouGov in the Sun, puts LibDem support at just
10% and it's highly likely that Nick Clegg's party will be pushed into
fourth place by UKIP in Thursday's Feltham and Heston by-election.
Next
out of the room was party president Tim Farron, who - i've remarked
before, I know - has the manner of the cheeky-chappie northern comedian.
"Everybody
endorsed Nick's position," he told me when I asked him if there was any
criticism from LibDem MPs of the Deputy Prime Minister's extraordinary
sulk/snub/no-show in the Commons on Monday.
Very loyal, Tim.
Except that every time I talk to him, I can't help thinking about him
positioning himself to be the next leader of the LibDems.
Chris Huhne obviously still feels that he should be the LibDem leader.
"Goodwill he terribly important in negotiations," he told the scribes in the corridor.
"If
people think you are not negotiating in good faith, if they think you
have a hidden or secret agenda, they think they can't rely on you to
deliver and you will find it very hard to negotiate."
A bit smug, perhaps? Mischievous? Provocative?
We scribblers are not complaing about his colourful language, though!

A spokesman for Ireland has just said it is difficult to know whether the Irish will want a Referendum and they are cautious about the
new Treaty if it is needed . Will Ireland vote for it beacause they were doing very well before this crisis and are concerned about what happens with Britain who they trade very well with.

Shares across Europe opened lower this morning on Fed inaction and Bernanke"s observation that the European crisis is affecting the
rest of the World. The sale of ECB Bonds may accelerate with demand

The Polish Economy Minister says the EU leaders must stop pussyfooting around . Poland is one of the strongest Economies but is caught up in the credit crunch.

An analyst says a recession is inevitable but may only last 3 quarters.

Shares in Italy, Spain Ireland and Portugal have improved and Italy will be selling more Bonds today.

Bernanke says he will intervene if the European crisis worsens.

The Irish Finance Minister is meeting George Osborne today to discuss the crisis and says he hopes for a full return to Bondbuying by 2013 and that the recovery is export led.

Analyst says recapitalising European Banks will stifle growth . Banks across Europe being sold off when they are only suffering from liquidity,
not Capital

Analysts saying that whether the EU survives depends on the 1st quarter next year. The Euro continues to fall against the U.S. $

Ireland says it is doing what is necessary to stimulate it"s economy but it"s debt is E60 Billion and with exports declining Noonan, the Finance Minister says
while he is not looking for a rebate from the EU, he would appreciate a low interest loan .He also wants clarification on the new Treaty .

Italian Bonds sold today for a highter yield and the worry is Italy is selling Bonds nearly every day.

German Bank Bundesbank will lend to the IMF if non EU Countries also lend.

Credit Agricole is shedding 2,300 jobs , mostly around the World.

New York Times today


Euro Closes In on Low for the Year


An Italian bond auction showed the bloom continuing to fade
from the latest debt crisis summit meeting and an economic report added to
growing evidence that a recession is looming in Europe.
===========

Greek Creditor is said to be working with Blackstone Law Group.......could it be Greece is thinking of defaulting??????

Yes they could be. It seems to have gone very quiet there!!

I see today that a few countries are having second thoughts about the the new treaty, thought they might.

Angela Merkel said today that she considered Britain still a very important part of EU. Is she running a bit scared now do you think?

I think she probably has a little trouble keeping Sarkozy under control. He is as mad as a hatter. I typed in something about a box there but then realized what I had said and erased it

Merkel is still hoping there's a way to get taxes from us!!

I think it is inevitable that we go into recession with the rest of Europe, the Euro is dropping like a stone, the rest of the world is fed up with the way this crisis has been handled , many think the first thing was to stimulate growth, not adopt a fiscal policy and the fact that this has dragged on for 2 years,
EU Members will be having second thoughts . Noonan, the Irish Finance Minister came to London today to talk to George Osborne and it may turn out
they won"t sign either.

Angelina wrote:Merkel is still hoping there's a way to get taxes from us!!

Exactly right Angelina. she has added up the sums and they realise that without a big contributor like us they will be in a pickle. Especially when is comes to propping up those people that contribute nothing.

fuzeta wrote:

Angelina wrote:Merkel is still hoping there's a way to get taxes from us!!

Exactly right Angelina. she has added up the sums and they realise that without a big contributor like us they will be in a pickle. Especially when is comes to propping up those people that contribute nothing.

It"s not just that fuzeta. Italy is selling Bonds practically every day, even Germany has started selling Bonds, although at a lower yield. there is a limit now on how long the ECB will buy the Bonds which is why Merkel is worried. To adopt the ECB as a Central bank means changing the Treaty which is why the
Chief of the Bundesbank is saying Germany will contribute to the IMF if non EU Members will also contribute. This money then goes to the EU Countries
needing bail-outs and U.S. Congress has already said the EFSF Euros "given" to the IMF and then distributed to EU Countries is toally unacceptable.

Panda wrote:

fuzeta wrote:

Angelina wrote:Merkel is still hoping there's a way to get taxes from us!!

Exactly right Angelina. she has added up the sums and they realise that without a big contributor like us they will be in a pickle. Especially when is comes to propping up those people that contribute nothing.

It"s not just that fuzeta. Italy is selling Bonds practically every day, even Germany has started selling Bonds, although at a lower yield. there is a limit now on how long the ECB will buy the Bonds which is why Merkel is worried. To adopt the ECB as a Central bank means changing the Treaty which is why the
Chief of the Bundesbank is saying Germany will contribute to the IMF if non EU Members will also contribute. This money then goes to the EU Countries
needing bail-outs and U.S. Congress has already said the EFSF Euros "given" to the IMF and then distributed to EU Countries is toally unacceptable.

Exactly Panda. She is right to be worried about the whole caboodle! It is a complete mess. Time that euro was buried. It is dead it just won't lie down

Ideas










Debate



Europe’s seven deadly sins (1/2)




14 December 2011

Die Zeit

Hamburg





Hieronymus Bosch: "Greed." From "The Seven Deadly Sins" (1475-80). Madrid, Prado Museum.

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The politicians of Europe love to flourish the flag of
Community togetherness. But in their day-to-day politicking they give
the lie to their supposed virtues. Die Zeit has compiled a cheat-sheet
of national egotisms that are harming the Community.


Andrea Böhm - Mark Schieritz - Peer Teuwsen - Michael Thumann




Sloth – Greece


Angela Merkel is to blame, they say. German hard-heartedness is
wrecking Europe, they say. That’s how the Greek tabloids are explaining
the crisis, and that’s what populist politicians and demonstrators are
shouting too. It’s not their debts that the Greeks are bothered by,
but the dunning and crowding and lecturing from the rest of Europe. In
blaming others, they’re lying to themselves and to Europe.

In Athens, what astonishes one is the incredible self-indulgence.
Who is actually grappling with the cause of the misery that is the
debt-ridden society of Greece itself? Those who always thought there
would be money enough in Europe for them. Guilds that cling on to their
privileges. State railway workers who pocketed exorbitant salaries
during chaotic wage hikes. Families that continued to rake in pensions
for their dead relatives. Politicians who hired their voters’ nephews
and nieces, and nephews and nieces who let themselves be hired. The
Athens media are reporting on this, for sure. But what’s missing is any
cathartic Greek anger at their fellow-citizens.

The Athens populists talk tough about Merkel, but go easy on the
guilty in their own country. They prefer raging at a distant bugbear,
it turns out, to looking themselves in the eye. This weakness, this
lack of talent for self-criticism, is the real Greek crisis.

Michael Thumann

Dealing in stolen goods – Switzerland


The sums are huge. It’s enough to make the eyes of Europe’s
politicians gape wide with cupidity. In Switzerland alone, foreigners,
most of them EU citizens, have 1,560 billion euros tucked away. In
Britain, and mainly in the Channel Islands, about 1,400 billion; in
Luxembourg, 440 billion, and in Liechtenstein, 78 billion. All these
states hold out a helping hand to tax evasion. They sponge up the
national wealth of other countries and live off the interest.

And what does Europe do? Instead of joining together in outrage,
the capital cities treat the scandal as a venerable tradition, as an
affaire diplomatique. Some individual countries, Germany among them,
are pursuing a double-taxation agreement with Switzerland and
Liechtenstein that would see some part of the tax debt paid back to the
depositors’ countries through a “withholding tax”. This pursuit,
though, undermines the request of the EU Commission for an automatic
exchange of information to get a lead on tax evaders – a request that
Luxembourg has also turned down. This same Luxembourg that otherwise so
eagerly preaches European solidarity.

Peer Teuwsen

Bigotry – Germany


Can there be a Europe in which one country exports and turns a profit, while others import and rack up debts?

The Germans are proud of their exporting prowess, as it’s a
testament to the efficiency of their domestic economy. But when a
country permanently sells more goods to foreign countries than it
imports from them, things get rather unpleasant for all involved.

This year Germany’s export surplus with the other EU countries came
to €62 billion. That means nothing less than that Germany goods are
traded not for foreign goods, but are practically handed over on
credit. To buy German goods, the southern Europeans go into debt to the
Germans. In other words, the wealth of the Germans is based on the
debts of others. But just who is complaining the loudest about this
debt? Exactly. Germany.

At some point the debtors will be threatened with bankruptcy and the
creditors with claims that have lost value. In recent years, the
Germans have built up foreign assets of almost € 1trillion. If the
South can no longer pay, however, a large part of that money will
vanish.

That is why the Chancellor is saying now that everyone should be
like the Germans: export more than they import, lower wages and cut
back on consumption. Easier said than done. If everyone just wants to
sell goods, after all, there will no longer be anyone to buy them, and
the economy will grind to a standstill.

If the Europeans do not want to flood the rest of the world with
European goods, which this world will not permit, the balance must be
restored within the monetary union. The Italians will have to economise
– and the Germans will have to spend more.

Mark Schiertz

Gluttony – Spain


“Thou shalt not empty the seas of thy neighbours’ fish” – Europe
could do with that as one its Ten Commandments. Followed by: “Thou
shalt not hang your farmers up to a subsidy drip.”

More than one billion euros have been allocated by Brussels to the
Spanish fishing industry for the period between 2007 and 2013 – far
more than for any other EU country. Since European waters are largely
overfished, Spain sends its highly modern fleets to lower their nets
off the coasts of Senegal and Mauritania. The trawlers leave little
behind for the local fishermen, and they exceed the agreed fishing
quotas to boot.

Legal action against the companies concerned would be required, as
well as new fisheries agreements between the EU and African countries.
So far, Spain’s government has resisted both, as they have also
resisted further reform of EU agricultural subsidies.

Around 50 billion euros flow from the Brussels cash box into
European agriculture every year – most directly to farmers in various
EU countries, who thus stay competitive in a field dominated by
price-dumping. A significant part of the cheap meat, dairy and vegetable
products from Spain, Italy, France and Germany now lands in African
markets.

Good for the poor, say the exporters. Local food production in
countries such as Ghana, Cameroon and the Ivory Coast, however, is
being driven to collapse. And if agricultural commodity prices go up,
the poor will no longer be able to afford these imports of milk powder,
poultry leftovers and grain from the EU.

If it comes to a food or hunger crisis, the Europeans will be in a
tight spot again. The world’s largest donor of emergency relief, after
all, is the EU.

Andrea Böhm



Translated from German by Anton Baer








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Euro Closes In on Low for the Year


By DAVID JOLLY

Published: December 14, 2011

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PARIS — The euro hovered near its lowest levels of the year on Wednesday, as an Italian bond auction showed the bloom continuing to fade from Europe’s latest crisis summit meeting and an economic report added to growing evidence that a recession is looming.


Multimedia


Interactive Feature
Tracking Europe's Debt Crisis



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• New E.C.B. Official May Be Open to Bond-Buying(December 15, 2011)
  
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European leaders last Friday announced measures to shore up battered market confidence in the currency, trotting out stricter rules governing public finances in the euro zone and more money for a bailout fund. But confusion on just how and when the measures will be implemented and the European Central Bank’s refusal to increase bond-buying have left sentiment close to where it was before a brief burst of hope after the meeting.
In the foreign exchange market, the dollar has been the main beneficiary of the European debt crisis, gaining almost 5 percent against the basket of currencies the Intercontinental Exchange uses to compile its dollar index.
Interest in the euro has also faded among money market managers since the E.C.B. last week cut its main interest rate target, narrowing the differential that short-term euro-based assets enjoy over dollar assets.
In afternoon trading, the euro was at $1.2994 from $1.3037 late Tuesday in New York, not far above its 2011 closing low of $1.2907, set in January. Stocks in Europe were down about 1 percent.
On Wednesday, Italy — the world’s seventh-largest economy, but with the third-largest debt — sold €3 billion, or $3.9 billion, of five-year bonds, paying 6.47 percent, ticking up from 6.30 percent last month.
The German government, meanwhile, sold €4.2 billion of two-year notes priced to yield 0.25 percent, the lowest ever. The result, along with declines in stock markets, suggests investors are fleeing for the assets — like German government securities — that are perceived as safest.
Even if Europe ultimately dodges a euro disaster, it is still facing a grim economic forecast as the crisis weighs on confidence and markets overseas slow. Industrial production in the 17-nation euro zone fell by 0.1 percent in October from September, following a 2.0 percent decline a month earlier, according to Eurostat , the European Union’s statistical agency in Luxembourg. From a year earlier, production grew by 1.3 percent.
Ben May, an economist in London with Capital Economics, said in a research note that with the fear that the debt crisis will worsen, Europe’s gross domestic product would likely contract in the fourth quarter of 2011, “to mark the beginning of another deep recession,” shrinking by about 1 percent in 2012.
In that respect, a lower euro — which could help European companies to compete overseas — would be something of a boon.


A version of this article appeared in print on December 15, 2011, in The International Herald Tribune with the headline: Euro Closes In on Low for the Year.

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No one has mentioned the tremendous costs American citizens pay for supposedly defending the rest of the world against so-called tyrants. That is one reason we have such a huge deficit. No other country spends as much as we do on defense. Remember when the terrorists hijacked four American airliners and crashed them into the World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and into a field in Pennsylvania? People in other countries are often uninformed about and jealous of Americans. That is why we have to defend ourselves against their aggression.

The other major economic problem I see here is the outrageous and ever-increasing cost of health care in America. The pharmaceutical firms, the hospitals, and the doctors in America absolutely refuse to be regulated by government mandates, nor to demand less money for their over-priced services from insured or private pay patients.

I don't know how Europe negotiated lower health care costs for its citizens other than to regulate the costs before the medical profession and the third-party payers became involved in setting prices. Insurance companies and government (taxpayer) reimbursements seem to operate very differently over here.

When traveling to Europe, I am always shocked at the exaggerated values of the Euro and British pound when compared to the US dollar.

I am really getting tired of paying quite a bit more for quite a bit less in terms of products and services when I am in Europe.

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 7:56 p.m.
  
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In a year or so when the Euro again reaches parity with the Dollar, I'll be first in line to book my ticket for a tour of the continent

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 7:56 p.m.
  
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Oh my gosh, the low of the *year*. That means a whole 12 months! So, with all the discussion of a apocalypse in Europe, the Euro is only back to where it started in January last. What does that say about the US dollar and the US economy?

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 7:56 p.m.
  
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If the Euro had nickels and dimes, Chancellor Merkel could nickel and dime the EuroUnion to death.

Is there really anything reassuring about the fact that the markets react negatively to what they are doing? German bond sale gone bad. Italian bonds--? S&P downgrade looming?

If I am not allowed to take tongue-in-cheek credit for what I've been hearing lately: a new funding agency, need for economic development and growth, China announcing a $300 Billion foreign investment fund, then at least allow me to take credit for predicting these changes a few weeks to a few months before they hapened.

The IMF, the ECB, the EFSF. and now a new one?

For those in hot pursuit of consensus: the EuroCrats agree that treaty modification is an impediment to a streamlined approach to solving the problem. Hence: Merkel says she wants a treaty modification to solve the EuropCrisis. Her justification? She does not want England to feel marginalised.

Slimviews, Commentary on Global Political and Economic Events by Slim Fairview is an unfunded, unsupported, non-profit, unprofitable web log. (Read my blog today or hear it from experts in a month or two.)

Regards,

Slim

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 7:56 p.m.
  
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The Euro will recover soon. He was already much more down within the recent years. It's a normal process that currencies are floating against each other if they are not bound together. No panic :-)

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 7:53 p.m.
  
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If Obama and the Democrats would only turn loose the power of American entrepreneurship, ingenuity, brainpower, and the muscle of our world class domestic and US multinationals, by lower taxes across the board for both businesses and consumers, the US would power out of the current budgetary and debt ridden quagmire and unemployment would seriously begin to decline. But the ObamaCrats do not have faith in American business and the American consumer as well as a fear of making long term, permanent reductions in taxation, believing the only route to economic turnaround is wealth redistribution and temporary target make work projects (which has failed to work for the past 3 years).

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 7:53 p.m.
  
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There you go again with the lower tax nonsense. We've tried lower taxes for the past 30 years, in particular for the past 10 years, otherwise known as the Bush tax cuts. What has it done? Nothing but make the rich richer and everyone else poorer! Enough of the lower tax bull! We are sick of it!

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 7:56 p.m.
  
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The eurozone is going through a deep crisis now, but few Europeans are ready to declare an end to the social safety nets and health care for all. As an American living in Europe, I still affirm that it is has a better, stronger economic and social system despite the tough years ahead. The question is where will an average person find a better quality of life 10 or 20 years down the road. It's not as if the U.S., where the middle class is being gutted due mostly to a conservative capitalist philosophy, has a brilliant future ahead. Of course Europe has to do some heavy trimming and sacrificing now, but its values and basic belief in shared burdens and solidarity will put it on a better long-term path. Think Social Security in the U.S.--it has to be reformed and made financially sustainable but practically no one thinks it should go away.

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 7:53 p.m.
  
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R.,

With all due respect, you don't know what you are talking about. When you say that "Europe has been living beyond its means for many years." you have to quantify that. Who and why?

If you are thinking its just PIGS, then you are very turned around. Paul Krugman has a very good graph, see this link:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/05/no-its-not-the-welfare-state/

As you can see, the interest rates do not seem to have any correlation to the amount of government welfare (ie. spending). While you story holds some water for Greece, the better narrative is that a currency union without political union just does not have the tools available to effectively manage fiscal policy. The US is in a totally different situation given that our Fed is independant and not tied to any other nation.

I also remember seeing some information showing a primary budget surplus in Italy until jittery investors over possible contagion from Greece sparked a run on their bond market.

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 7:52 p.m.
  
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Tying Europe's economic problems to particular forms of government seems a false connection when you consider that there is a global economic crisis going on from which we are all suffering. There is a lot of corruption in some countries, some of those with the worst debt, and in those same countries people routinely don't pay taxes let alone pay enough. Those practices need to change and reforms are needed. But blaming social democracies for it all is silly.

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 5:05 p.m.
  
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A sanguine social system is a laudable human goal as long as politicians don't sell it to the populace as cominag without a fair means of paying for it!

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 5:05 p.m.
  
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This is like watching Apollo 13, except the eurocrats are not astronauts.

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 5:05 p.m.
  
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The Eurozone members criticized the US and took a hands off attitude when we were dealing with our financial crisis. Obama looked to Europe as a role model as to how the US should be run, including the ObamaCare socialist type involuntary healthcare system. We were also told by many investment talking heads on those cable investing programs that "gold is the new reserve currency" and the dollar was on the way to being replaced by the Euro or Yuan Chinese currency. Right! The Euro is tanking, just diving below $130 on the way to $120 or lower and gold has been plummeting faster than Obama and Congress's job rating, along with Rick Perry's poll numbers, down about $90 per ounce just today, under $1600 on the way to $1500 and below. Conversely, the dollar is rising and the US Treasuries are too, with interest rates declining, as investors flee Europe to the safe harbor in...the USA.

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 5:05 p.m.
  
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R. has it exactly right. NYT readers all live in a fairyland where all the left wing socialist propaganda promulgated at CCNY is true. Now, the socialist/communist bunch call themselves "progressives," but their warped view of the world has never changed. Look how well those philosophies worked in Russia and now Europe. And don't point to the success China is now enjoying. Their system is authoritarian capitalism and that is why we can't compete against them.

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How exactly would you explain the very real success of Sweden, Norway, Germany, Canada and other more or less socialist countries? The former Soviet Union is no more predictive of socialist economies than Somalia is predictive of free market economies: both are dysfunctional outliers. China may be the worst of both worlds however, and they are well on their way to to replicating the failure of Japan, Inc.

• Dec. 14, 2011 at 7:55 p.m.
  
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But look at Europe, and look at America: where would YOU rather live (in the unlikely event you had lived for a few years in Europe)? As a European (and a frequent visitor on business to America for the pasl 35 years) I know what my answer would be. And it would not be New Jersey.

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It's amazing how events change perceptions. If I recall correctly, during the 2008 oil spike, when the price of oil approached $150 per BBL and the Euro was worth approximately $1.60, there was some talk of replacing the dollar with the Euro as the reserve currency.
As an aside, due to the decline in the value of the Euro, Americans are now paying 33% less per gallon from the peak oil highs($3.67), while Euro countries are paying 20% less from the peak prices ($2.23).

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While the Euro is indeed on a low for "this year", the Euro has bobbed between $1.30 and $1.40 many times. The other times it has been around $1.30 were not "the crisis of the century." It seems to me the story is: why is the Euro still percolating up and down in its multi year trading range, if its outlook is enormously worsened relative to any other period?

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Germany loses a coalition member, not Britain. Fridays agreement does nothing to save th e euro and threatens democracy in Europe as is pointed out by The New Statesman:

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/12/european-treaty-c...

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@Jon in Tokio. Are sure about what you wrote ?
Any worsening of the current situation would imply only further austerity measures, always tougher and tougher.
Please note that Households debts in italy are among the lowest in the Western countries.
Capability to attract more foreign investments will be the key.
it's a matter of fact - though - that some speculators in London and Wall St. have an interest to obtain a European or Italian collapse.

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I am completely amazed by the ignorance of most of the reporting of t he Euro zone crisis by the NY Times. I felt my "Cancel my subscription!" bones rattling when I read Roger Cohen's particularly anti British op ed piece.
If your readers want to know how the British left see what is happening and why some of them support Cameron's veto read this:
http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/12/e

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Marianne, I felt exactly the same. Some really shameful anti-British sentiments and an abject failure by the NYT to grasp the real issues. If only people realised how undemocratic the EU is and that it is utterly flawed to base economic policy on entirely political objectives. I feel badly for the PIIGS populations; they are being locked into economic ever decreasing circles with no way to get out and without even being able to vote for or against it - there will be trouble ahead. The Brits remember their history, self-rule has served them well for centuries and it seems that the NYT and many of its readers forget the maxim "he who fails to understand history is doomed to make the same mistakes".

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Rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic didn't work? No surprise there.

Conservative ideology and policy has not only ruined this country, but Europe as well.

It's time we start taxing the very rich again to avoid huge deficits.

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Are you kidding? Conservative ideology in Europe? Europe's problems come precisely from excessive socialist welfare society, too much leisure and vacation time, early retirement, laziness and running up massive debt...diametrically opposed to conservative principles.

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I don't understand international and Eurozone finances. Guess that means I can get a job as policy-maker in Europe.

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It is too early to draw conclusions. No one has yet seen the finalized agreement. Europe takes a step in the right direction. Perhaps it would be enough to overcome the problem of sovereign debt. However, debt issues and the global economic crisis, these are different problems ( http://crisismir.com/analiticheskie-materialy/ekonomika/13-mirovoj-ekono... ). To meet the challenges of the economic crisis will require a number of decisions aimed at further integration of EU countries. It will be necessary to give the ECB the right and the tools to fully perform the functions of the central bank. Necessary to determine the agreed priorities of the EU, to make the EU budget from the budget eating away at the development budget. Need to concentrate resources in key areas of the EU economy.
In addition, details please bear in mind that a thin pre-holiday market may give the appearance of increased volatility on us any great player. Fluctuations in such a market can not be viewed as a tendency of the market.

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MArkets are on uncerteinty, The us is attracting more investors as seems to be the safer out of all places, and Channels for the Dollar purchase has allowed a massive migration from euro to the dollar

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Europe like in dark ages is suffering a bubonic plague of economic devastation. If someone says not that much , go see what is happening in greece.

The solution, which is offered by Merkozy, unfortunately not fitting rest of the EU members economic situation.

Greece is simply collapsed, economys appearence is not different than the parthenons todays shape.

Italy and Spain is convulsing under euro's high value , there is no way to improve competitiveness via austerity and spending cuts.

THE SOLUTION IS UNFORTUNATELY THE RADICAL ONE, PRINTING MORE MONEY, INCREASING INFLATION.

If euro will not be devalued via printing money and increasing inflation , the only thing you can see dead economies across the continents, everybody knows who are those dead economies will be.

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Interesting economic theory, worth a nobel price!

Greece, Italy, and Spain, however, have different problems, none of them being an over- or underevaluated Euro.

Greece: 200% indebtness of GDP, 10% coupon means that you are spending 20% of the GDP (!!) only for the "investors".
Italy: Managed excellent the 2008/09 financial crisis but has long lasting structural problems (Mafia, Mani Pulite, Lega Nord and Berlusconi) as old as the Lira (please note: I said Lira not Euro).
Spain: Housing bubble, in this case partially caused by the Euro but not for its high value but for the low interest rates for mortgages, with the now resulting unemployment and delevaraging issues partially comparable with the USA --- a country, as always repeated, with an indebtness well below Japan, Chinese provinces, California, the (Federal) USA or even Germany.

The current weakness of the Euro (? Is it weakness or relative strength? "Fair" parity is usually seen at 1 Euro = 1.20-1.25 US$) is a little bit surprising since, actually, FED but not ECB is printing money. Future may see that ECB is buying much more Greek or Italian bonds (comparable the amount FED is currently doing), or Euro bonds will solve the problem of the spread in-between Italian and German bonds. But even if so, no inflation (of Euro) is expected since e.g. unemployment in the periphery such as Portugal, Spain, and Greece is high. Where inflation shall come from?

Finally, there is no doubt that the current economic/financial

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Europe has been living beyond its means for many years. Now it is paying a terrible price for its wanton ways, and worse to come.


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Can I make a prediction?

Come January, Italy will begin the daunting task of rolling over some E300 billion in debt. The markets, continuing their flight from risk, will quickly demand 7% and higher for the privilege of postponing the inevitable, a rate largely agreed to be unsustainable.

Italy's technocratic government will suffer from an acute bout of too little-too late, especially since the next in the firing line, France, will be too preoccupied with national elections and nationalizing its own banks to lend a hand.

Italy will require a bailout in 2012. German voters, for all they've got from the pawn countries in Europe, will nevertheless balk. France, and thus Europe, will be in hot water by year end...

And the beat goes on...but with the UK insulated, not "isolated", and more popular as a financial safe-haven than ever...

14 December 2011
Last updated at 15:13














German Chancellor Merkel says Britain a key EU partner




















German Chancellor Angela Merkel says Britain's role in the EU is secure






Continue reading the main story













Global Economy

• 
  European anger at UK
  
• 
  How will the euro crisis end?
  
• 
  Crisis jargon buster
  
• 
  Germany's vision for Europe
  

Chancellor
Angela Merkel has told German MPs that the UK will remain a strong EU
partner, despite its decision not to sign up to an EU summit deal.

Addressing the Bundestag (parliament), she said she very much
regretted that UK PM David Cameron had been "unable to join us" on the
path to fiscal union.

Last week 26 of the 27 members of the European Union backed new fiscal rules, with only the UK abstaining.

Britain said the deal failed to provide safeguards for its financial sector.

Mrs Merkel was speaking after the euro fell below $1.30 and
£0.84 - an 11-month low - amid continuing fears over the eurozone's
future.

The deal was prompted by debt crises in several eurozone
countries, and is intended to tighten rules to prevent member states
running up further debts in future.

The only way to do this is to write budget prudence into the constitution of each member country, Germany says.

In a separate development, Christian Lindner resigned as
general secretary of the Free Democratic Party, Mrs Merkel's coalition
partner, amid dismal poll ratings and wrangling over an internal
referendum on the eurozone deal.

'Intermediate contract'

Continue reading the main story EU budget deal

• Automatic sanctions for any state which runs up a deficit of more than 3% of GDP
  
• "Golden rule" built into eurozone members' budgets against running a deficit
  
• Private investors never again to be asked to take losses, as in Greece
  
• European Stability Mechanism (ESM) brought forward from 2013 to
  2012, with decisions based on a qualified majority not unanimity
  
• Eurozone leaders to meet every month as long as crisis continues to discuss growth
  

The BBC's Stephen Evans in Berlin
says the chancellor gave few details that might satisfy the financial
markets in the immediate crisis, but she indicated that the close
integration of a core of the EU was now her strong aim.

The chancellor said the countries had decided to have an "intermediate contract".

"I am convinced that if we have the necessary patience and
endurance, if we do not let reversals get us down, if we consistently
move towards a fiscal and stability union, if we actually complete the
economic and currency union... then what I have always stated as our
goal since the beginning of the crisis will come to pass," she said.

There would be automatic penalties on countries that broke
spending rules, she said, adding that the EU had to tackle the task of
harmonising legislations of different countries more closely.

"I regret that the UK has not been able to join us on this journey," she said.

"But I also believe it's an important partner in the European
Union... Great Britain has its own vital interest that the eurozone
will overcome its own financial crisis."

She said a stronger and more stable Europe would emerge from the crisis.

But there are fears that a budget pact will still not be enough to prevent more countries from seeking a bailout.

Greece, Ireland and Portugal had to be bailed out after they could no longer afford interest rates charged by lenders.

Rates for Italy and Spain are also reaching unsustainable levels.

The EU does not currently have a pot of cash big enough to
rescue larger EU countries requiring bailouts, but the deal envisaged
signatories providing funds of up to 200bn euros for the International
Monetary Fund to help tackle the crisis.









More on This Story

Ed Conway Sky News 14th December




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The International Monetary Fund has tonight released its latest
assessment of the Greek economy, or the wreck that remains of it. And a
gory sight it is too. Much of the information has already leaked into
the public domain, though there are plenty of titbits which illustrate
the trouble the economy is in. A few highlights:
- The IMF has
slashed its economic growth forecasts for the country. The economy will,
at its worst point, contract at an annual rate of almost 6%, and will
shrink by up to 3% next year. It adds that long-term growth rates have
also been revised down.
- As a result, the country’s fiscal
position will be far worse than previously thought. The IMF says that
the country will take longer to reach a primary surplus (in other words
to have its budget in positive territory once interest costs are
subtracted). This is key: until the country is in primary surplus, it
means that even if it were to default on all its debts, it still
wouldn’t be able to run its public sector.
- The fire-sale of the
country’s public sector assets is taking far longer than expected. The
programme of sell-offs will now be extended until 2020 – a decade-long
privatisation programme that will rival anything carried out (even
willingly) by any modernising government in recent history.
- The
plan to impose a haircut on private sector investors in Greek debt is
seriously vulnerable. The IMF said the previous plan, agreed in July
this year, “would not work”, but, perhaps even more worryingly, raised
concerns about the successor plan, which sees private sector investors
accept a 50% haircut on their investments. This plan, which is still
being negotiated by the Institute for International Finance, a lobby
group of international investment banks, would only bring down public
debt to an “acceptable” level of 120% of GDP with “near-universal
participation”. It added that:
With low participation in the
debt exchange and a significant amount of hold outs to be amortized with
European support—a real risk under a purely voluntary approach (i.e.,
an approach not involving any measures to induce higher participation
levels)—debt could stick above 145 percent of GDP in 2020. Moreover, the
trajectory would no longer be robust to the usual range of shocks.
Thus,
securing a sustainable debt position will depend on whether PSI
negotiations deliver the targeted €100 billion in debt reduction, in
particular on the ability of the features of the exchange to deliver
near-universal participation.
- Some illustrations of the
strength of a possible new Greek independent currency. The IMF has run
its slide rule over the “competitiveness gap” faced by the country – in
other words the difference in efficiency between the country and its
euro neighbours. It calculated that, on the basis of an “equilibrium
real exchange rate approach”, the gap is some 33%. The significance of
this is it illustrates how overvalued the euro is for the Greek economy.
There
are plenty of other details in the tables and charts of this 160-page
document, but the overall impression is quite clear. The austerity plan
imposed on the country is not working, pushing it further into economic
depression.
Baleful as this is for Greece itself, it is even more
worrying for the broader euro area. For the fiscal union written into
last week’s EU summit, mainly by Germany, essentially imposes the same
kind of fiscal fundamentalism across the eurozone. The lesson is that it
is economic suicide to impose enormous spending and borrowing cuts on
an uncompetitive economy when there is no monetary antidote (in other
words an independent central bank to slash rates and lessen the blow).
When that pain gets beyond a certain point, the country finds itself in a
debt deflation spiral of the kind the US and much of Europe experienced
in the 1930s.
But that’s the wisdom, or otherwise, of the route
currently mapped out by the euro leaders. That’s why it will have to be
amended, and soon, or else why the European Central Bank will have to
intervene. Some euro policymakers insist it is impossible to predict the
future. But it’s there written between the lines of the IMF’s latest
assessment of Greece.

Panda wrote:do you know girls, this thread has had 181 hits so far today , our fame is spreading,LOL and there are several hits in the early hours of the morning, not our Members, because we are safely tucked up in bed , although I am up up quite early . When you think about it , this topic affects everyone , and there is not a lot going on on the Forum at the moment, wait til February though.

Panda

Funny you mentioned this and I never really thought we would garner any interest but you are right - we have had visitors. One in particular - John Craig.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/dec/09/uk-isolation-grows-eurozone-treaty

UK isolation grows as three more countries reconsider eurozone treaty
The 23 EU countries ignoring the UK veto may be joined by Hungary, Sweden and the Czech Republic, leaving Britain alone


Ian Traynor, Nicholas Watt and David Gow in Brussels
guardian.co.uk, Friday 9 December 2011 12.51 GMT
Article history
Three more eurozone countries reconsider treaty, isolating UK Link to this video
The sense of unprecedented isolation afflicting Britain in Europe has been reinforced in Brussels after Hungary joined Sweden and the Czech Republic in reconsidering whether to take part in a new pact aimed at rescuing the euro.

Britain parted ways with the rest of Europe earlier on Friday morning when David Cameron dramatically wielded his veto to block Germany's drive to reopen the Lisbon treaty in an attempt to rescue the single currency.

Initially 23 of the 27 EU countries said they would ignore the British veto and negotiate a new pact outside the treaty. Later the other three waverers said they would take the agreement to their own parliaments, leaving the UK on its own.

The prime minister's unexpected move was seen as a watershed in Britain's fractious membership of the EU. He insisted on securing concessions on and exemptions from EU financial markets regulation as the price of his assent to the German-led euro salvation blueprint. The others balked, accusing Cameron of putting Britain's perceived interests ahead of resolving the EU's worst crisis.

The prime minister blocked the accord, meaning that Britain is on its own while Cameron has failed to secure the concessions for Britain's strong financial services sector. In one of the most significant developments in Britain's 38-year membership of the EU, the British prime minister said early on Friday morning he could not allow a "treaty within a treaty" that would undermine the UK's position in the single market.

Cameron's blocking tactics frustrated the German chancellor Angela Merkel's plans to secure a new punitive rulebook for the single currency by anchoring it in the Lisbon treaty. Plan B is to create a "fiscal compact" among a coalition of the willing – probably everyone but Britain – with quasi-automatic penalties for countries breaking the single currency rules and stronger powers of intervention for European institutions policing the pact.

Britain, however, is also likely to contest the new architecture, arguing that bodies like the European commission responsible to all 27 member states should not be given a role to police the euro.

The outcome on Friday morning, following nine hours of negotiation through the night, was a setback for Merkel, perhaps a disaster for Britain, and a partial victory for Nicolas Sarkozy of France, who had been pressing for an inter-governmental agreement among the 17 members of the eurozone to underpin tough new fiscal rules for the single currency.

"We could not accept this," he said of Cameron's demands.

But many other countries opposed the Merkel plan to reopen the Lisbon treaty and will not be disappointed that the German scheme has failed. Merkel nonetheless stressed that the accord would stabilise the euro. "I have always said, the 17 states of the eurogroup have to regain credibility," she said. "And I believe with today's decisions this can and will be achieved."

Cameron wielded the British veto in the early hours of the morning after France succeeded in blocking a series of safeguards demanded by Britain to protect the City of London. Cameron had demanded that:

• Any transfer of power from a national regulator to an EU regulator on financial services would be subject to a veto.

• Banks should face a higher capital requirement.

• The European Banking Authority should remain in London. There were suggestions that it might be consolidated in the European Security and Markets Authority in Paris.

• The European Central Bank be rebuffed in its attempts to rule that euro-denominated transactions take place within the eurozone.

Sarkozy rejected the demands out of hand.

Cameron defended his decision to wield the British veto on the grounds that eurozone members could have used the institutions of the EU to undermine Britain's interests in the single market without his safeguards. Speaking at 6.19am local time, he said: "I said before I came to Brussels that if I couldn't get adequate safeguards for Britain in a new European treaty then I wouldn't agree to it. What is on offer isn't in Britain's interests so I didn't agree to it.

"Of course we want the eurozone countries to come together and to solve their problems. But we should only allow that to happen inside the European Union treaties if there are proper protections for the single market and for other key British interests. Without those safeguards it is better not to have a treaty within a treaty but to have those countries make their arrangements separately."

Cameron acknowledged there were risks in striking out alone. But he said Britain would protect its position by insisting that the institutions of the EU could not be used to enforce the new fiscal rules.

"While there were always dangers of agreeing a treaty within a treaty, there are also risks with others going off and forming a separate treaty. So we will insist that the EU institutions – the court, the commission – that they work for all 27 nations of the EU. Indeed those institutions are established by the treaty and that treaty is still protected."

Cameron indicated that Britain may go further and block the use of EU institutions if eurozone countries club together to shape financial regulations and labour laws.

The decision by Cameron will transform Britain's relations within the EU. Other projects, such as the euro and the creation of the passport-free Schengen travel area, have gone ahead without British involvement. But it is the first time since Britain joined in 1973 that a treaty that strikes at the heart of the workings of the EU will be agreed without a British signature. Britain signed the 1991 Maastricht treaty after winning an opt-out on the single currency and the social chapter.

Cameron will be able to tell Eurosceptic backbenchers he refused to sign a treaty that would have undermined British interests. But some Eurosceptics may say the new treaty marks a major change in the EU and that the British people should be consulted in a referendum.

Sources in Brussels say Cameron is playing a "dangerous game" because financial service regulations are decided by the system of qualified majority voting in which Britain does not have a veto. Britain can form a "blocking minority" at the moment to stop harmful legislation. But this will shrink as more countries join the euro.

The summit also agreed that:

• Eurozone countries will provide up to €200bn in extra resources to the International Monetary Fund to help countries in difficulty.

• The eurozone's two bailout funds, the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), will be managed by the European Central Bank.

Am still having trouble posting and lost a couple of comments - anyone else suffering?

It's not looking good for Greece at all. They seem to be hanging by a thread. The article from Sky News man says it's going to need the ECB to step in.

I see Thomas Cook are closing more branches so tourism is taking a hit - which is going to harm Greece as well.

Angelique wrote:

Panda wrote:do you know girls, this thread has had 181 hits so far today , our fame is spreading,LOL and there are several hits in the early hours of the morning, not our Members, because we are safely tucked up in bed , although I am up up quite early . When you think about it , this topic affects everyone , and there is not a lot going on on the Forum at the moment, wait til February though.

Panda

Funny you mentioned this and I never really thought we would garner any interest but you are right - we have had visitors. One in particular - John Craig.

Whose John Craig? I only go by the increase in hits, no sign of who is looking in, although there were 100 yesterday and another hundred today

The EU treaty is a disaster for the left




Posted by Owen Jones - 09 December 2011 15:43













Stop crowing about Cameron – this is just the latest attack on European democracy.









A Greek student sets fire to the EU flag earlier this year (Photo: Getty Images)
















Stop your crowing about Cameron leaving Britain marginalised, lefties. The proposed EU treaty is perhaps the biggest catastrophe to befall the European left since the Second World War.
Sounds like semi-deranged hyperbole? Consider this: as Paul Mason has written, "by enshrining in national and international law the need for balanced budgets and near-zero structural deficits, the eurozone has outlawed expansionary fiscal policy".
Read
that last bit carefully. Left-wing governments of all hues will, in
effect, be banned by this treaty. If the French or the German left
returns to power in the near future (and both are in a good position to
do so), it will be illegal for them to respond to the global economic
catastrophe with anything but austerity. An economic stimulus is
forbidden – because the treaty has buried Keynesianism.
Cameron opposed the treaty because he feared the effect it would have on the City, which, after all, bankrolls his party.
But just because he opposed the treaty doesn't mean the automatic
response of the left should be to throw its weight behind it. I proudly
marched against the invasion of Iraq; I wasn't deterred by the fact the
BNP opposed it, too.
François Hollande – the Socialist candidate
for the French presidency – has already spoken out against a treaty
cooked up by Europe's overwhelmingly right-of-centre governments. If
we're going to listen to European leaders, Hollande is a sounder bet
than avowed right-wingers like Nicolas Sarkozy and Angela Merkel.
After
this stitch-up, the left really needs to have a long, hard think about
its attitude to the EU as it is currently constructed. There's still a
sense that any criticism of the EU puts you in the same box as
swivel-eyed Ukip-ers who rant about gypsies in shire inns. But there's a
powerful left critique that needs to be made.
We've already had
elected governments in Italy and Greece toppled by the bond markets with
the complicity of senior EU figures. Successive compacts (such as the
Lisbon Treaty) have enshrined the privatisation of public services. It
was EU Directive 9/440 that made it a legal requirement for private
companies to be able to run train services, and the European Court of
Justice has issued judgments that have attacked workers' rights, much as
making it possible for individuals to sue unions.
The new treaty
is just the latest attack on European democracy – and against the
European left. So let's stop taunting Cameron, and start working out how
we can unite with the European labour movement to stop this total
disaster in its tracks.
Owen Jones's "Chavs: the Demonization of the Working Class" is published by Verso (£14.99).








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Pos

Panda

I have no idea who he is but he has copied soemthing I posted.

Your last article about the attack on democracy - referring to the Lisbon Treaty. Isn't this the reason Cameron vetoed the new Treaty. Maybe I am not understanding it correctly - however the author mentions that the Lisbon treaty effectively took away the rights of the workers (slaves) and they can sue Unions - this sounds crazy - it was Brown who signed it. Do you remember - he did it later after everyone else had gone! He didn't want us to know - the sw**e!

15 December 2011
Last updated at 00:12











Eurozone faces winter recession, Ernst & Young says











European leaders have been met several times this year to solve the eurozone debt crisis


Continue reading the main story













Global Economy

• 
  European anger at UK
  
• 
  How will the euro crisis end?
  
• 
  Crisis jargon buster
  
• 
  Germany's vision for Europe
  

The eurozone is facing a "bleak" winter, according to audit firm Ernst & Young.

A "mild" recession is likely in the first half of next year,
leading to economic growth of just 0.1% for the whole of 2012, it
predicted.

Ernst & Young also said unemployment in the eurozone was unlikely to fall below 10% until 2015.

Meanwhile, Greece - Europe's most indebted country - said that it would have its worst recession ever in 2011.

Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos warned on Wednesday that
his country's contraction would be greater than the 5.5% currently
forecast.

Greece's economy shrank by 4.5% in 2010, when it received its first bailout from the EU and International Monetary Fund.

'Uncertainties'

Last week, 26 of the 27 members of the European Union backed
new fiscal rules to keep budgets in line, with only the UK abstaining.

But many fear that the budget pact will still not be enough to prevent more countries from seeking a bailout.

On Wednesday, the euro fell below $1.30 for the first time since January.

"The reforms agreed at the summit on 9 December were a step
in the right direction and the response seems to have been mildly
positive," according to Ernst & Young.

"Yet investors remain very concerned about the commitment and ability of eurozone governments to implement reforms quickly."

The audit firm predicts that eurozone growth will recover to between 1.5% and 2% in 2013.

"The uncertainties hanging over the Eurozone can only
continue to dampen the enthusiasm for European companies to make long
term investment and recruitment decisions," said Mark Otty, Ernst &
Young's managing partner for Europe, Middle East, India and Africa.

French Bank Credit Agricole is shedding thousands , had made a big loss and has been downgraded by Ffitch.

Jens Weidman says the ECB is getting fed up issuing Bonds and Italy could go on forever selling bonds.

Merkels General Secretary quits.

Ing Chief Economist says there is a 30% chance one or two Countries will leave the EU within two months by defaulting but gives only 5% chance of the
EU breaking up.
The Euro opened this morning at it"s lowest rate against for 11 months

Goldman Sachs Chairman Says Euro Will Survive

• 0 Comments
  
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8:27am UK, Thursday December 15, 2011





A leading economist has told Sky News that he thinks the
euro will survive - although some countries may have to leave the single
currency.


Jim O'Neill, Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management, told Sky's Jeff Randall Live that European leaders wouldn't give up easily, despite the continuing crisis in the eurozone.


"Germany and France put this thing together because they didn't want
the rather less pleasant parts of the past 100 years to repeat itself."


"So they're not going to give this thing up," he said.


He added that he didn't think the poor economic circumstances would
win out over the political will to sustain the euro, over the next
twelve months.


Mr O'Neill said he was disappointed with the outcome of the recent
European summit where 26 leaders agreed on a new fiscal pact, saying
that France had hindered Germany's attempt to resolve the crisis.


"It's gotten wrapped up in a lot of typical European games, which France is at the core of."












David Cameron was the only European Union leader not to agree to a new treaty for tighter fiscal union





He added, however, that a totally new approach was needed to resolve
the crisis, including intervention from the European Central Bank (ECB).


"Germany has got to consider accepting a higher inflation rate than
is probably in the minds of many Germans, and this is within the ECB
mandate."


His comments come as the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s top
official in Greece said the government there would have to cut more
public sector jobs to reduce its budget deficit.


The IMF and eurozone countries have been propping up Greece's economy
with rescue loans since May 2010, imposing stringent demands that have
driven the country into recession.


The IMF estimates that Greece needs to devalue its currency by up to a
third to return to growth, but it is unable to do so while it remains a
member of the eurozone.


Economic forecasters say Greece is heading toward its fourth year of recession in 2012.